831
FXUS63 KBIS 062052
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
252 PM CST FRI FEB 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- CLOUDY THROUGH TONIGHT WITH FLURRIES, SPRINKLES, OR POCKETS OF
FREEZING DRIZZLE THROUGH THIS EVENING.
- WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SUNDAY IS
FORECAST TO BE THE WARMEST DAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S
NORTHEAST TO AROUND 60 FAR SOUTHWEST.
- 20 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW AND RAIN EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 252 PM CST FRI FEB 6 2026
CLOUDY SKIES FROM LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LOOKS TO CONTINUE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. A WEAK SURFACE UPPER LEVEL WAVE IS
PUSHING THROUGH NOW AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO THROUGH THIS
EVENING. THIS WEAK WAVE MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT FOR SOME BRIEF
FREEZING DRIZZLE THROUGH THIS EVENING, ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH.
AREAS WITH LOW CLOUD COVER COULD ALSO SEE A FEW FLURRIES OR
SPRINKLES INTO THIS EVENING. BEHIND THIS WAVE WILL BE AN
INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT WHICH WILL BRING SOME BREEZY SOUTH
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD LIMIT THE FOG THREAT
AND MAY EVEN PARTIALLY BREAK UP CLOUDS, MAINLY IN WESTERN
PORTIONS. LOWS TONIGHT LOOK TO BE IN THE TEENS EAST TO THE LOWER
30S WEST. A MORE BROAD SURFACE LOW WITH A BETTER UPPER LEVEL
WAVE THEN MOVES THROUGH ON SATURDAY. ABUNDANT LOW CLOUDS WILL BE
FOUND AS A RESULT THROUGH AT LEAST THE MORNING, AND COULD LINGER
IN THE EAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE
ALONG THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE, ALTHOUGH THE BETTER CHANCES MAY BE
EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA THUS CURRENTLY HAVE A DRY FORECAST.
BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS BECOME A BREEZY AND DRY WESTERLY WIND
SATURDAY AFTERNOON BEHIND THE MENTIONED UPPER LEVEL WAVE. THIS
COULD BE THE PUSH NEEDED TO CLEAR SKIES AND BRING WARMER
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS ARE FORECAST IN THE 40S AND 50S WEST AS THIS
AREA SHOULD CLEAR OUT EARLIER, WITH THE 30S EAST. RIDGING
OVERHEAD SHOULD THEN BRING DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH LOWS IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S. A
MAINLY DRY AND BREEZY WESTERLY FLOW IS THEN EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY.
AS A RESULT WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE AGAIN FORECAST WITH HIGHS IN
THE 40S AND 50S FOR MOST AREAS. ECMWF EFI FOR MAX T ON SUNDAY
REMAINS OVER 0.9 INDICATING PERHAPS NEAR RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE. FOR REFERENCE, MOST SITES HAVE
RECORDS AROUND 60 DEGREES FOR FEBRUARY 8TH. KEPT IN THE NBM
FORECAST FOR NOW AS A PASSING CLIPPER SYSTEM TO OUR NORTH COULD
LINGER CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE STATE SUNDAY, WHICH MAY SOMEWHAT
LIMIT HIGH TEMPERATURES. THIS MENTIONED CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL
START TO PUSH A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT. NBM FORECAST IS CURRENTLY DRY, ALTHOUGH
PERHAPS SOME ISOLATED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS FRONT. BEING A WEAKER FRONT, LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT STILL REMAIN
MILD AND IN THE 20S AND 30S.
OUR NEXT MORE WIDESPREAD CHANCE OF SNOW AND POSSIBLY SOME RAIN
THEN COMES MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE KICKS OUT
A NORTHERN ROCKIES SURFACE LOW. COOLER YET STILL MILD HIGHS WILL
BE FOUND BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH 30S GENERALLY EXPECTED,
WITH SOME LINGERING 40S ON MONDAY. CHANCES FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW
WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE AROUND 30 TO 60 PERCENT, WITH CHANCES FOR
OVER 2 INCHES OF SNOW UP TO 30 PERCENT ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH.
THUS SOME MINOR WINTER WEATHER IMPACTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
SYSTEM TO START THE WEEK. WINDS LOOK LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM,
AND NORTH WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT COULD BRING LOWS INTO THE
TEENS TUESDAY NIGHT. WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY SEES A WEAK ZONAL
FLOW PATTERN SET UP ACROSS THE AREA. PASSING WAVES IN THIS
PATTERN COULD BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW, WITH NBM LINGERING SLIGHT
CHANCES ON WEDNESDAY AND 10 TO 20 PERCENT CHANCES FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOW IN A 24 HOUR PERIOD LINGERING THROUGH MOST OF
THIS TIME PERIOD. MILD TEMPERATURES ALSO LOOK TO REMAIN MID TO
LATE NEXT WEEK. NBM SPREADS ARE MODEST YET OVERALL REMAIN IN THE
ABOVE NORMAL RANGE. THE CHANCE FOR BREEZY TO STRONG WINDS WITH
THIS PATTERN ALSO LOOK TO BE LOW.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CST FRI FEB 6 2026
ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER WILL BRING MVFR CEILINGS TODAY AND THROUGH
MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD FOR MOST SITES. THERE COULD BE SOME
VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING TO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING, INCLUDING AT THE KXWA AND KDIK
TAF SITE. MEANWHILE, CLOUDY AREAS COULD SEE BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR
CEILINGS. AREAS WITH CLOUDS COULD SEE PERIODS OF DRIZZLE OR
FLURRIES, ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO PLACE IN
THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. LIGHT WINDS TODAY WILL BECOME A BREEZY
SOUTH SOUTHEASTERLY WIND THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT. THESE
BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS COULD LINGER ACROSS THE EAST ON SATURDAY,
BECOMING A BREEZY WESTERLY WIND ACROSS THE WEST.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...ANGLIN
AVIATION...ANGLIN
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