012
FXUS63 KBIS 070034
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
634 PM CST FRI FEB 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LOW CLOUDS WITH PATCHY FOG OR MIST OVER MUCH OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH TONIGHT. LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE
COULD ALSO IMPACT NORTH CENTRAL PARTS OF THE STATE.
- WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SUNDAY IS
FORECAST TO BE THE WARMEST DAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S
NORTHEAST TO AROUND 60 FAR SOUTHWEST.
- 20 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 632 PM CST FRI FEB 6 2026
THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE THROUGH TONIGHT IS HOW EXCESSIVE
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE TRANSLATED AT THE SURFACE, BOTH
IN TERMS OF VISIBILITY AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION. AUTOMATED
OBSERVATIONS ALONG THE HIGHWAY 52 CORRIDOR FROM MINOT TO THE
CANADIAN BORDER HAVE INDICATED ON-AND-OFF LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE
FOR THE PAST FEW HOURS, INCLUDING A HUNDREDTH OF AN INCH OF ICE
ACCRETION MEASURED BY THE MINOT ASOS. IT WAS THOUGHT THAT THE
INGREDIENTS SUPPORTING THIS FREEZING DRIZZLE THREAT WOULD HAVE
EITHER WANED OR SHIFTED EASTWARD BY NOW, BUT IT APPEARS THAT THE
SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW IS REINFORCING THE BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE, AND AN EAST-SOUTHEAST SURFACE WIND FIELD PROVIDES A
SLIGHT OROGRAPHIC COMPONENT. FURTHERMORE, LOW LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION IS NOW COMMENCING OVER THIS AREA, PROVIDING ANOTHER
SOURCE OF LIFT. RAP AND HRRR MODEL SOUNDINGS ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA SHOW THE DEPTH OF NEAR- SURFACE SATURATED
LAYER REMAINING NEAR 1 KM UNTIL LATER TONIGHT. A SLIGHT CHANCE
(20 PERCENT) OF FREEZING DRIZZLE HAS BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL 3 AM
CST FOR AREAS INCLUDING MINOT, HARVEY, RUGBY, AND BOTTINEAU.
THE OTHER CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG. THERE ARE
ALREADY SIGNS OF FOG FORMATION ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE STRATUS IN SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA, AND WE ANTICIPATE THIS
WILL EXPAND AND SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT. THIS FOG
EVENT APPEARS TO BE PRIMARILY DRIVEN BY ADVECTION PROCESSES,
AND CONCEPTUALLY SEEMS MORE FAVORED TO BE A 1 TO 3 MILE
VISIBILITY OUTCOME RATHER THAN DENSE FOG, AT LEAST ON A MORE
WIDESPREAD BASIS. BUT STILL WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME
PATCHY DENSE FOG AT TIMES THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 252 PM CST FRI FEB 6 2026
CLOUDY SKIES FROM LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LOOKS TO CONTINUE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. A WEAK SURFACE UPPER LEVEL WAVE IS
PUSHING THROUGH NOW AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO THROUGH THIS
EVENING. THIS WEAK WAVE MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT FOR SOME BRIEF
FREEZING DRIZZLE THROUGH THIS EVENING, ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH.
AREAS WITH LOW CLOUD COVER COULD ALSO SEE A FEW FLURRIES OR
SPRINKLES INTO THIS EVENING. BEHIND THIS WAVE WILL BE AN
INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT WHICH WILL BRING SOME BREEZY SOUTH
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD LIMIT THE FOG THREAT
AND MAY EVEN PARTIALLY BREAK UP CLOUDS, MAINLY IN WESTERN
PORTIONS. LOWS TONIGHT LOOK TO BE IN THE TEENS EAST TO THE LOWER
30S WEST. A MORE BROAD SURFACE LOW WITH A BETTER UPPER LEVEL
WAVE THEN MOVES THROUGH ON SATURDAY. ABUNDANT LOW CLOUDS WILL BE
FOUND AS A RESULT THROUGH AT LEAST THE MORNING, AND COULD LINGER
IN THE EAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE
ALONG THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE, ALTHOUGH THE BETTER CHANCES MAY BE
EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA THUS CURRENTLY HAVE A DRY FORECAST.
BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS BECOME A BREEZY AND DRY WESTERLY WIND
SATURDAY AFTERNOON BEHIND THE MENTIONED UPPER LEVEL WAVE. THIS
COULD BE THE PUSH NEEDED TO CLEAR SKIES AND BRING WARMER
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS ARE FORECAST IN THE 40S AND 50S WEST AS THIS
AREA SHOULD CLEAR OUT EARLIER, WITH THE 30S EAST. RIDGING
OVERHEAD SHOULD THEN BRING DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH LOWS IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S. A
MAINLY DRY AND BREEZY WESTERLY FLOW IS THEN EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY.
AS A RESULT WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE AGAIN FORECAST WITH HIGHS IN
THE 40S AND 50S FOR MOST AREAS. ECMWF EFI FOR MAX T ON SUNDAY
REMAINS OVER 0.9 INDICATING PERHAPS NEAR RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE. FOR REFERENCE, MOST SITES HAVE
RECORDS AROUND 60 DEGREES FOR FEBRUARY 8TH. KEPT IN THE NBM
FORECAST FOR NOW AS A PASSING CLIPPER SYSTEM TO OUR NORTH COULD
LINGER CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE STATE SUNDAY, WHICH MAY SOMEWHAT
LIMIT HIGH TEMPERATURES. THIS MENTIONED CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL
START TO PUSH A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT. NBM FORECAST IS CURRENTLY DRY, ALTHOUGH
PERHAPS SOME ISOLATED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS FRONT. BEING A WEAKER FRONT, LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT STILL REMAIN
MILD AND IN THE 20S AND 30S.
OUR NEXT MORE WIDESPREAD CHANCE OF SNOW AND POSSIBLY SOME RAIN
THEN COMES MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE KICKS OUT
A NORTHERN ROCKIES SURFACE LOW. COOLER YET STILL MILD HIGHS WILL
BE FOUND BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH 30S GENERALLY EXPECTED,
WITH SOME LINGERING 40S ON MONDAY. CHANCES FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW
WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE AROUND 30 TO 60 PERCENT, WITH CHANCES FOR
OVER 2 INCHES OF SNOW UP TO 30 PERCENT ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH.
THUS SOME MINOR WINTER WEATHER IMPACTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
SYSTEM TO START THE WEEK. WINDS LOOK LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM,
AND NORTH WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT COULD BRING LOWS INTO THE
TEENS TUESDAY NIGHT. WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY SEES A WEAK ZONAL
FLOW PATTERN SET UP ACROSS THE AREA. PASSING WAVES IN THIS
PATTERN COULD BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW, WITH NBM LINGERING SLIGHT
CHANCES ON WEDNESDAY AND 10 TO 20 PERCENT CHANCES FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOW IN A 24 HOUR PERIOD LINGERING THROUGH MOST OF
THIS TIME PERIOD. MILD TEMPERATURES ALSO LOOK TO REMAIN MID TO
LATE NEXT WEEK. NBM SPREADS ARE MODEST YET OVERALL REMAIN IN THE
ABOVE NORMAL RANGE. THE CHANCE FOR BREEZY TO STRONG WINDS WITH
THIS PATTERN ALSO LOOK TO BE LOW.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 632 PM CST FRI FEB 6 2026
LOW CEILINGS WILL IMPACT MOST TERMINALS THROUGH TONIGHT. THE
00Z TAF CYCLE STARTS OUT WITH PRIMARILY IFR TO LIFR CEILINGS IN
NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA, AND MVFR TO IFR ELSEWHERE. PARTS OF
NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA, INCLUDING KXWA, HAVE AT LEAST TEMPORARILY
CLEARED OUT FROM UNDER THE LOW CLOUDS, AND FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IN HOW MUCH THIS COULD FILL BACK IN IS LOW. IN CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN LOW CEILINGS PREVAILING
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING, WITH LIFR FAVORED
AT KMOT, IFR AT KBIS, AND MVFR AT KJMS. SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA
IS ALSO EXPECTED TO MOSTLY BE UNDER IFR TO LIFR CEILINGS, BUT
THERE COULD BE SOME GAPS IN COVERAGE AT TIMES. THE LOW CLOUDS
ARE FORECAST TO ERODE FROM WEST TO EAST LATER TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON, BUT THIS EROSION IS NOT EXPECTED TO REACH
KJMS BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AND MAY JUST BARELY CLEAR
KMOT AND KBIS.
IN ADDITION TO LOW CLOUDS, THERE IS ALSO A RISK OF VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS FROM FREEZING FOG/MIST ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE STATE, AND LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE COULD IMPACT PARTS OF
NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IN THE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF FOG IS LOW, BUT
THINK THE MOST LIKELY OUTCOME IS FOR PERIODS OF MVFR TO IFR
VISIBILITY. AREAS FROM AROUND KDIK TO KMOT HAVE THE HIGHEST
PROBABILITIES FOR REDUCED VISIBILITY THROUGH TONIGHT.
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO AROUND 10-15
KTS THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT. THEN EXPECT WINDS TURNING TO
THE WEST-NORTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY AS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVES FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE STATE.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...HOLLAN
DISCUSSION...ANGLIN
AVIATION...HOLLAN
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