060
FXUS63 KBIS 070416
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1016 PM CST FRI FEB 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LOW CLOUDS WITH PATCHY FOG AND MIST OVER MUCH OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH TONIGHT, WITH A LOW CHANCE OF
LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE IN NORTH CENTRAL PARTS OF THE STATE.
- WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SUNDAY IS
FORECAST TO BE THE WARMEST DAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S
NORTHEAST TO AROUND 60 FAR SOUTHWEST.
- 20 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1015 PM CST FRI FEB 6 2026
AN AREA OF LOW CLOUDS WITH PATCHY DENSE FOG UNDERNEATH IS
MIGRATING NORTHWARD ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA LATE THIS
EVENING. OBSERVED TRENDS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE, WITH THESE LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG INTERCEPTING A SEPARATE LARGER AREA THAT RESIDES
FROM SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN INTO NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
THERE ARE STILL PERIODIC REPORTS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE IN NORTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA, BUT THEY ARE BECOMING FEW AND FARTHER
BETWEEN. WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF FREEZING DRIZZLE
THROUGH TONIGHT, AND HAVE EXTENDED THIS MENTION IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON CLOSER TO THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS AND
THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN, IN COLLABORATION WITH NWS GRAND FORKS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 632 PM CST FRI FEB 6 2026
THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE THROUGH TONIGHT IS HOW EXCESSIVE
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE TRANSLATED AT THE SURFACE, BOTH
IN TERMS OF VISIBILITY AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION. AUTOMATED
OBSERVATIONS ALONG THE HIGHWAY 52 CORRIDOR FROM MINOT TO THE
CANADIAN BORDER HAVE INDICATED ON-AND-OFF LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE
FOR THE PAST FEW HOURS, INCLUDING A HUNDREDTH OF AN INCH OF ICE
ACCRETION MEASURED BY THE MINOT ASOS. IT WAS THOUGHT THAT THE
INGREDIENTS SUPPORTING THIS FREEZING DRIZZLE THREAT WOULD HAVE
EITHER WANED OR SHIFTED EASTWARD BY NOW, BUT IT APPEARS THAT THE
SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW IS REINFORCING THE BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE, AND AN EAST-SOUTHEAST SURFACE WIND FIELD PROVIDES A
SLIGHT OROGRAPHIC COMPONENT. FURTHERMORE, LOW LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION IS NOW COMMENCING OVER THIS AREA, PROVIDING ANOTHER
SOURCE OF LIFT. RAP AND HRRR MODEL SOUNDINGS ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA SHOW THE DEPTH OF NEAR- SURFACE SATURATED
LAYER REMAINING NEAR 1 KM UNTIL LATER TONIGHT. A SLIGHT CHANCE
(20 PERCENT) OF FREEZING DRIZZLE HAS BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL 3 AM
CST FOR AREAS INCLUDING MINOT, HARVEY, RUGBY, AND BOTTINEAU.
THE OTHER CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG. THERE ARE
ALREADY SIGNS OF FOG FORMATION ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE STRATUS IN SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA, AND WE ANTICIPATE THIS
WILL EXPAND AND SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT. THIS FOG
EVENT APPEARS TO BE PRIMARILY DRIVEN BY ADVECTION PROCESSES,
AND CONCEPTUALLY SEEMS MORE FAVORED TO BE A 1 TO 3 MILE
VISIBILITY OUTCOME RATHER THAN DENSE FOG, AT LEAST ON A MORE
WIDESPREAD BASIS. BUT STILL WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME
PATCHY DENSE FOG AT TIMES THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 252 PM CST FRI FEB 6 2026
CLOUDY SKIES FROM LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LOOKS TO CONTINUE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. A WEAK SURFACE UPPER LEVEL WAVE IS
PUSHING THROUGH NOW AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO THROUGH THIS
EVENING. THIS WEAK WAVE MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT FOR SOME BRIEF
FREEZING DRIZZLE THROUGH THIS EVENING, ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH.
AREAS WITH LOW CLOUD COVER COULD ALSO SEE A FEW FLURRIES OR
SPRINKLES INTO THIS EVENING. BEHIND THIS WAVE WILL BE AN
INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT WHICH WILL BRING SOME BREEZY SOUTH
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD LIMIT THE FOG THREAT
AND MAY EVEN PARTIALLY BREAK UP CLOUDS, MAINLY IN WESTERN
PORTIONS. LOWS TONIGHT LOOK TO BE IN THE TEENS EAST TO THE LOWER
30S WEST. A MORE BROAD SURFACE LOW WITH A BETTER UPPER LEVEL
WAVE THEN MOVES THROUGH ON SATURDAY. ABUNDANT LOW CLOUDS WILL BE
FOUND AS A RESULT THROUGH AT LEAST THE MORNING, AND COULD LINGER
IN THE EAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE
ALONG THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE, ALTHOUGH THE BETTER CHANCES MAY BE
EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA THUS CURRENTLY HAVE A DRY FORECAST.
BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS BECOME A BREEZY AND DRY WESTERLY WIND
SATURDAY AFTERNOON BEHIND THE MENTIONED UPPER LEVEL WAVE. THIS
COULD BE THE PUSH NEEDED TO CLEAR SKIES AND BRING WARMER
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS ARE FORECAST IN THE 40S AND 50S WEST AS THIS
AREA SHOULD CLEAR OUT EARLIER, WITH THE 30S EAST. RIDGING
OVERHEAD SHOULD THEN BRING DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH LOWS IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S. A
MAINLY DRY AND BREEZY WESTERLY FLOW IS THEN EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY.
AS A RESULT WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE AGAIN FORECAST WITH HIGHS IN
THE 40S AND 50S FOR MOST AREAS. ECMWF EFI FOR MAX T ON SUNDAY
REMAINS OVER 0.9 INDICATING PERHAPS NEAR RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE. FOR REFERENCE, MOST SITES HAVE
RECORDS AROUND 60 DEGREES FOR FEBRUARY 8TH. KEPT IN THE NBM
FORECAST FOR NOW AS A PASSING CLIPPER SYSTEM TO OUR NORTH COULD
LINGER CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE STATE SUNDAY, WHICH MAY SOMEWHAT
LIMIT HIGH TEMPERATURES. THIS MENTIONED CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL
START TO PUSH A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT. NBM FORECAST IS CURRENTLY DRY, ALTHOUGH
PERHAPS SOME ISOLATED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS FRONT. BEING A WEAKER FRONT, LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT STILL REMAIN
MILD AND IN THE 20S AND 30S.
OUR NEXT MORE WIDESPREAD CHANCE OF SNOW AND POSSIBLY SOME RAIN
THEN COMES MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE KICKS OUT
A NORTHERN ROCKIES SURFACE LOW. COOLER YET STILL MILD HIGHS WILL
BE FOUND BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH 30S GENERALLY EXPECTED,
WITH SOME LINGERING 40S ON MONDAY. CHANCES FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW
WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE AROUND 30 TO 60 PERCENT, WITH CHANCES FOR
OVER 2 INCHES OF SNOW UP TO 30 PERCENT ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH.
THUS SOME MINOR WINTER WEATHER IMPACTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
SYSTEM TO START THE WEEK. WINDS LOOK LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM,
AND NORTH WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT COULD BRING LOWS INTO THE
TEENS TUESDAY NIGHT. WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY SEES A WEAK ZONAL
FLOW PATTERN SET UP ACROSS THE AREA. PASSING WAVES IN THIS
PATTERN COULD BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW, WITH NBM LINGERING SLIGHT
CHANCES ON WEDNESDAY AND 10 TO 20 PERCENT CHANCES FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOW IN A 24 HOUR PERIOD LINGERING THROUGH MOST OF
THIS TIME PERIOD. MILD TEMPERATURES ALSO LOOK TO REMAIN MID TO
LATE NEXT WEEK. NBM SPREADS ARE MODEST YET OVERALL REMAIN IN THE
ABOVE NORMAL RANGE. THE CHANCE FOR BREEZY TO STRONG WINDS WITH
THIS PATTERN ALSO LOOK TO BE LOW.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1015 PM CST FRI FEB 6 2026
AT 04Z, AN AREA OF LOW STRATUS AND FOG WITH IFR/LIFR CEILINGS
AND MVFR TO LIFR VISIBILITY WAS MIGRATING NORTHWARD ACROSS
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. PARTS OF SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA, INCLUDING
KDIK, ARE NOW LIKELY TO SEE AT LEAST A FEW HOURS OF VFR
CONDITIONS LATE THIS EVENING, AND COULD REMAIN AT VFR THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG COULD RETURN TO SOME
AREAS THAT CLEAR OUT THOUGH, AND FORECAST CONFIDENCE ON THIS
EVOLUTION IN SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA BEYOND 06Z REMAINS LOW.
IN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA MVFR TO LIFR CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH TONIGHT, WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR TO IFR VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS FROM FREEZING MIST/FOG. THERE IS ALSO A LOW CHANCE
FOR LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE IN NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY, MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF KMOT.
FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON, EXPECT A
WEST-TO- EAST EROSION OF THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ACROSS WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. KXWA AND KDIK SHOULD RETURN TO VFR BY
THE AFTERNOON, AND KBIS IS LIKELY TO BY MID AFTERNOON AS WELL.
BUT RECENT FORECAST GUIDANCE IS TRENDING TO THE LOW CLOUDS NOT
CLEARING EAST OF KMOT TO KJMS THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY
AFTERNOON, AND POSSIBLY NOT UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING. FOG COULD ALSO
RETURN TO CENTRAL PARTS OF THE STATE SATURDAY EVENING INTO
SUNDAY MORNING.
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AROUND 10-15 KTS ARE FORECAST THROUGH
TONIGHT, WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE. THEN EXPECT WINDS
TURNING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY AS A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE STATE.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...HOLLAN
DISCUSSION...ANGLIN
AVIATION...HOLLAN
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