011
FXUS63 KBIS 071005
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
405 AM CST SAT FEB 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LOW CLOUDS WITH PATCHY FOG AND MIST OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TODAY AND TONIGHT, WITH A LOW CHANCE
OF LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE IN NORTH CENTRAL PARTS OF THE
STATE.
- WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SUNDAY
WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S NORTHEAST
TO AROUND 60 SOUTHWEST.
- 20 TO 50 PERCENT CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW EARLY NEXT
WEEK. TEMPERATURES TREND COOLER NEXT WEEK, BUT REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 400 AM CST SAT FEB 7 2026
CURRENTLY, BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO OUR WEST, ANCHORED ALONG
THE ROCKIES, WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
THIS MORNING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST AND A LEESIDE
SFC LOW TO OUR WEST, RESULTS IN A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS
THE DAKOTAS EARLY THIS MORNING, WITH BREEZY AT TIMES SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS. AREAS OF LOW LEVEL STRATUS ACROSS THE
REGION, ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG BEING REPORTED AT TIMES, WITH A
CONTINUED MOIST LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY LAYER. HARD TO FIND ANY
GIVEN MODEL THAT PERFECTLY REPRESENTS THE LOW CLOUD PLACEMENT,
THOUGH THE LATEST RAP IS FAIR.
WAA SPREADS FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY AS A WARM FRONTAL ZONE
ADVANCES EAST INTO THE REGION. LOW LEVEL CLOUDS LOOK TO PERSIST
FOR MOST OF THE DAY CENTRAL AND EAST, WITH MORE CLEARING WEST
WHERE WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. SOME WRAP
AROUND STRATUS IS DEPICTED BY THE RAP TO REENTER PARTS OF
NORTHWEST ND AFTER 18Z THIS AFTERNOON. SFC FRONT/TROUGH STALLS
OVER THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS THIS EVENING, SLOWLY DEVELOPING EAST
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. THIS LEADS TO LIKELY CONTINUED LOW CLOUDS
OVER MY CENTRAL AND EASTERN COUNTIES TONIGHT ALONG WITH MORE
FOG, WITH DECREASING CLOUDS CENTRAL OVERNIGHT IN THE WAKE OF
THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH.
SUNDAY CONTINUES TO BE THE WARMEST DAY DEPICTED THIS FORECAST
PERIOD, WITH A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT COUPLED WITH THE WARM SECTOR OF
A SFC LOW MOVING EAST ACROSS FAR SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA SPREADING
OVER WEST AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.
COUPLED WITH A GOOD WESTERLY MIXING FLOW AND DECREASING CLOUDS
(LOW CLOUDS WILL BE WELL TO OUR EAST BY 18Z SUN), AFTERNOON
HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM NEAR 40F IN THE TURTLE
MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 60 IN SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. OPTED TO
INCREASE TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO THE 75/90 PERCENTILES OF THE
NBM CONSIDERING OUR OVERPERFORMING AFT HIGHS LATELY. A FEW
RECORD HIGHS WILL BE IN JEOPARDY OF BEING BROKEN WITH FORECAST
TEMPERATURES 30 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
THEREAFTER, UPPER LEVEL JET STREAM STARTS TO SAG FARTHER SOUTH
ALONG WITH A TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS
PATTERN CHANGE WILL SUGGEST TEMPERATURES TRENDING COOLER NEXT
WEEK (THOUGH REMAINING ABOVE NORMAL), ALONG WITH A MORE ACTIVE
PATTERN DEVELOPING INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES EARLY NEXT
WEEK AND POTENTIALLY FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1015 PM CST FRI FEB 6 2026
AT 04Z, AN AREA OF LOW STRATUS AND FOG WITH IFR/LIFR CEILINGS
AND MVFR TO LIFR VISIBILITY WAS MIGRATING NORTHWARD ACROSS
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. PARTS OF SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA, INCLUDING
KDIK, ARE NOW LIKELY TO SEE AT LEAST A FEW HOURS OF VFR
CONDITIONS LATE THIS EVENING, AND COULD REMAIN AT VFR THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG COULD RETURN TO SOME
AREAS THAT CLEAR OUT THOUGH, AND FORECAST CONFIDENCE ON THIS
EVOLUTION IN SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA BEYOND 06Z REMAINS LOW.
IN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA MVFR TO LIFR CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH TONIGHT, WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR TO IFR VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS FROM FREEZING MIST/FOG. THERE IS ALSO A LOW CHANCE
FOR LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE IN NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY, MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF KMOT.
FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON, EXPECT A
WEST-TO- EAST EROSION OF THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ACROSS WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. KXWA AND KDIK SHOULD RETURN TO VFR BY
THE AFTERNOON, AND KBIS IS LIKELY TO BY MID AFTERNOON AS WELL.
BUT RECENT FORECAST GUIDANCE IS TRENDING TO THE LOW CLOUDS NOT
CLEARING EAST OF KMOT TO KJMS THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY
AFTERNOON, AND POSSIBLY NOT UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING. FOG COULD ALSO
RETURN TO CENTRAL PARTS OF THE STATE SATURDAY EVENING INTO
SUNDAY MORNING.
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AROUND 10-15 KTS ARE FORECAST THROUGH
TONIGHT, WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE. THEN EXPECT WINDS
TURNING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY AS A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE STATE.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...NH
AVIATION...HOLLAN
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