250
FXUS63 KBIS 071208
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
608 AM CST SAT FEB 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LOW CLOUDS WITH PATCHY FOG AND MIST OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TODAY AND TONIGHT, WITH A LOW CHANCE
OF LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE IN NORTH CENTRAL PARTS OF THE
STATE.
- WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SUNDAY
WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S NORTHEAST
TO AROUND 60 SOUTHWEST.
- 20 TO 50 PERCENT CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW EARLY NEXT
WEEK. TEMPERATURES TREND COOLER NEXT WEEK, BUT REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 602 AM CST SAT FEB 7 2026
THERE WERE NO MAJOR DEVIATIONS FROM THE INHERITED FORECAST WITH
THIS PRODUCT ISSUANCE, OUTSIDE OF BLENDING HOURLY WEATHER
ELEMENTS WITH CURRENT OBSERVATIONS. SEE BELOW FOR FURTHER
DISCUSSION.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 400 AM CST SAT FEB 7 2026
CURRENTLY, BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO OUR WEST, ANCHORED ALONG
THE ROCKIES, WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
THIS MORNING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST AND A LEESIDE
SFC LOW TO OUR WEST, RESULTS IN A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS
THE DAKOTAS EARLY THIS MORNING, WITH BREEZY AT TIMES SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS. AREAS OF LOW LEVEL STRATUS ACROSS THE
REGION, ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG BEING REPORTED AT TIMES, WITH A
CONTINUED MOIST LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY LAYER. HARD TO FIND ANY
GIVEN MODEL THAT PERFECTLY REPRESENTS THE LOW CLOUD PLACEMENT,
THOUGH THE LATEST RAP IS FAIR.
WAA SPREADS FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY AS A WARM FRONTAL ZONE
ADVANCES EAST INTO THE REGION. LOW LEVEL CLOUDS LOOK TO PERSIST
FOR MOST OF THE DAY CENTRAL AND EAST, WITH MORE CLEARING WEST
WHERE WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. SOME WRAP
AROUND STRATUS IS DEPICTED BY THE RAP TO REENTER PARTS OF
NORTHWEST ND AFTER 18Z THIS AFTERNOON. SFC FRONT/TROUGH STALLS
OVER THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS THIS EVENING, SLOWLY DEVELOPING EAST
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. THIS LEADS TO LIKELY CONTINUED LOW CLOUDS
OVER MY CENTRAL AND EASTERN COUNTIES TONIGHT ALONG WITH MORE
FOG, WITH DECREASING CLOUDS CENTRAL OVERNIGHT IN THE WAKE OF
THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH.
SUNDAY CONTINUES TO BE THE WARMEST DAY DEPICTED THIS FORECAST
PERIOD, WITH A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT COUPLED WITH THE WARM SECTOR OF
A SFC LOW MOVING EAST ACROSS FAR SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA SPREADING
OVER WEST AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.
COUPLED WITH A GOOD WESTERLY MIXING FLOW AND DECREASING CLOUDS
(LOW CLOUDS WILL BE WELL TO OUR EAST BY 18Z SUN), AFTERNOON
HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM NEAR 40F IN THE TURTLE
MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 60 IN SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. OPTED TO
INCREASE TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO THE 75/90 PERCENTILES OF THE
NBM CONSIDERING OUR OVERPERFORMING AFT HIGHS LATELY. A FEW
RECORD HIGHS WILL BE IN JEOPARDY OF BEING BROKEN WITH FORECAST
TEMPERATURES 30 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
THEREAFTER, UPPER LEVEL JET STREAM STARTS TO SAG FARTHER SOUTH
ALONG WITH A TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS
PATTERN CHANGE WILL SUGGEST TEMPERATURES TRENDING COOLER NEXT
WEEK (THOUGH REMAINING ABOVE NORMAL), ALONG WITH A MORE ACTIVE
PATTERN DEVELOPING INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES EARLY NEXT
WEEK AND POTENTIALLY FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 602 AM CST SAT FEB 7 2026
MVFR TO LIFR CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN
NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING, WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT POSSIBLE AT
BOTH KBIS AND KJMS IF THE LOW CLOUDS MOMENTARILY SCATTERED
OUT/LIFT. WESTERN TERMINALS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH
THE 12Z PERIOD. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG THEN RETURN TONIGHT FOR
CENTRAL AND EASTERN TERMINALS, WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS FOR
BOTH KBIS AND KMOT LATE TONIGHT AFTER 06Z. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS
AROUND 10-15 KTS THROUGH THIS MORNING, WITH WINDS THEN BECOMING
WEST/NORTHWEST TODAY INTO THIS EVENING AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MOVES FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE STATE.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...NH
DISCUSSION...NH
AVIATION...NH
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