612
FXUS63 KBIS 071756
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1156 AM CST SAT FEB 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LOW CLOUDS WITH PATCHY FOG AND MIST OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TODAY AND TONIGHT, WITH A LOW CHANCE
OF LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE IN NORTH CENTRAL PARTS OF THE
STATE.
- WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SUNDAY
WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S NORTHEAST
TO AROUND 60 SOUTHWEST.
- 20 TO 50 PERCENT CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW EARLY NEXT
WEEK. TEMPERATURES TREND COOLER NEXT WEEK, BUT REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1131 AM CST SAT FEB 7 2026
QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE LOW STRATUS
RETREATING A BIT OUT WEST.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 856 AM CST SAT FEB 7 2026
QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION. NO UPDATES ARE NEEDED
AT THIS TIME.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 602 AM CST SAT FEB 7 2026
THERE WERE NO MAJOR DEVIATIONS FROM THE INHERITED FORECAST WITH
THIS PRODUCT ISSUANCE, OUTSIDE OF BLENDING HOURLY WEATHER
ELEMENTS WITH CURRENT OBSERVATIONS. SEE BELOW FOR FURTHER
DISCUSSION.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 400 AM CST SAT FEB 7 2026
CURRENTLY, BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO OUR WEST, ANCHORED ALONG
THE ROCKIES, WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
THIS MORNING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST AND A LEESIDE
SFC LOW TO OUR WEST, RESULTS IN A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS
THE DAKOTAS EARLY THIS MORNING, WITH BREEZY AT TIMES SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS. AREAS OF LOW LEVEL STRATUS ACROSS THE
REGION, ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG BEING REPORTED AT TIMES, WITH A
CONTINUED MOIST LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY LAYER. HARD TO FIND ANY
GIVEN MODEL THAT PERFECTLY REPRESENTS THE LOW CLOUD PLACEMENT,
THOUGH THE LATEST RAP IS FAIR.
WAA SPREADS FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY AS A WARM FRONTAL ZONE
ADVANCES EAST INTO THE REGION. LOW LEVEL CLOUDS LOOK TO PERSIST
FOR MOST OF THE DAY CENTRAL AND EAST, WITH MORE CLEARING WEST
WHERE WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. SOME WRAP
AROUND STRATUS IS DEPICTED BY THE RAP TO REENTER PARTS OF
NORTHWEST ND AFTER 18Z THIS AFTERNOON. SFC FRONT/TROUGH STALLS
OVER THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS THIS EVENING, SLOWLY DEVELOPING EAST
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. THIS LEADS TO LIKELY CONTINUED LOW CLOUDS
OVER MY CENTRAL AND EASTERN COUNTIES TONIGHT ALONG WITH MORE
FOG, WITH DECREASING CLOUDS CENTRAL OVERNIGHT IN THE WAKE OF
THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH.
SUNDAY CONTINUES TO BE THE WARMEST DAY DEPICTED THIS FORECAST
PERIOD, WITH A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT COUPLED WITH THE WARM SECTOR OF
A SFC LOW MOVING EAST ACROSS FAR SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA SPREADING
OVER WEST AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.
COUPLED WITH A GOOD WESTERLY MIXING FLOW AND DECREASING CLOUDS
(LOW CLOUDS WILL BE WELL TO OUR EAST BY 18Z SUN), AFTERNOON
HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM NEAR 40F IN THE TURTLE
MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 60 IN SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. OPTED TO
INCREASE TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO THE 75/90 PERCENTILES OF THE
NBM CONSIDERING OUR OVERPERFORMING AFT HIGHS LATELY. A FEW
RECORD HIGHS WILL BE IN JEOPARDY OF BEING BROKEN WITH FORECAST
TEMPERATURES 30 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
THEREAFTER, UPPER LEVEL JET STREAM STARTS TO SAG FARTHER SOUTH
ALONG WITH A TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS
PATTERN CHANGE WILL SUGGEST TEMPERATURES TRENDING COOLER NEXT
WEEK (THOUGH REMAINING ABOVE NORMAL), ALONG WITH A MORE ACTIVE
PATTERN DEVELOPING INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES EARLY NEXT
WEEK AND POTENTIALLY FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1131 AM CST SAT FEB 7 2026
LOW STRATUS CONTINUES TO CLEAR ACROSS THE WEST AND SOUTH THIS
AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE SITES WILL CLEAR TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON
WITH MVFR CONDITIONS RETURNING TONIGHT. KMOT WILL LIKELY BE ONE
OF THE ONLY SITES THAT REMAINS MVFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE
IS SOME MODEL INCONSISTENCY WITH FOG FORMING TONIGHT. THE MOST
LIKELY AREAS WILL BE ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER AND NORTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY FOG WAS LEFT OUT OF THE TAFS
FOR NOW. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST BY
TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...JOHNSON
DISCUSSION...NH
AVIATION...JOHNSON
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