522
FXUS63 KBIS 072027
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
227 PM CST SAT FEB 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. SUNDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 30S NORTHEAST TO AROUND 60 SOUTHWEST.
- 20 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW EARLY NEXT
WEEK. TEMPERATURES TREND COOLER NEXT WEEK, BUT REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 214 PM CST SAT FEB 7 2026
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OUT WEST CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS HAS BROUGHT FORTH WARMER WEATHER. A WARM
FRONT HAS MOVED INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON SWITCHING WIND
TO WESTERLY ACROSS MONTANA AND WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THE WARM
FRONT HAS PUSHED ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE, AS OF
20Z, WARMING SITES IN THE WEST INTO THE UPPER 40S SO FAR THIS
AFTERNOON PUSHING LOW STRATUS EASTWARD. NOW THE LOW STRATUS IS
FORECAST TO STALL OUT LATER TONIGHT ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE STATE POTENTIAL GROWING WESTWARD. PATCHY FOG COULD FORM
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL HALF OF THE STATE TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW MORNING. HI-RES MODELS HAVE PATCHY FOG FORMING AROUND
THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE FORECAST
TO DROP DOWN INTO THE UPPER TEENS IN THE RED RIVER VALLEY AND
AND THE SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING IN THE SOUTHWEST.
TOMORROW TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO WARM INTO THE 50S TO LOWER
60S IN THE SOUTHWEST WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE WARNING AREA IN
THE 40S. WESTERLY WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES SUPPORT WARM
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AS THE RIDGE AXIS PASSES
OVERHEAD. RECORD TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE STATE INCLUDING WILLISTON, DICKINSON, AND MINOT
WHILE BISMARCK WILL HAVE A HARDER TIME REACHING THE RECORD AS IT
IS ON THE EDGE OF THE THERMAL RIDGE. RECORD TEMPERATURES ARE
DEPENDENT ON CLEARING SKIES IF SKIES REMAIN OVERCAST THERE IS A
CHANCE TEMPERATURES STAYING ON THE COOLER SIDE. THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL FLATTEN INTO ZONAL FLOW AS A CLIPPER PASSES TO THE
NORTH MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING FORTH COOLER TEMPERATURES INTO
THE REGION, HOWEVER TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN ABOUT 5
TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. SOME OF THE HI-RES MODELS ARE
HINTING AT A BANDED PRECIPITATION EVENT TAKING PLACE MONDAY
WHILE THE GLOBAL MODELS AND THE NBM HAVE LOWER CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION. PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE FORECAST TO BE A RAIN
SNOW MIX DURING THE DAY AND SNOW OVERNIGHT. THERE IS STILL QUIET
A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS EVENT.
QUASI-ZONAL PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK WITH CHANCES 20 TO 40 PERCENT FOR RAIN AND SNOW WED INTO
THU. PERSISTENT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE REST OF NEXT WEEK AS WELL WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S.
SOME DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAVE BEEN HINTING AT A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL LOW MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS, BUT THE
MODELS SEEM TO FLIP FLOP DAILY ON THIS SYSTEM IN THE EXTENDED.
THE ENSEMBLES ARE NOT IN AGREEMENT WITH ANY SOLUTIONS FOR NEXT
WEEKEND SO STAY UP TO DATE WITH THE LATEST FORECAST.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1131 AM CST SAT FEB 7 2026
LOW STRATUS CONTINUES TO CLEAR ACROSS THE WEST AND SOUTH THIS
AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE SITES WILL CLEAR TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON
WITH MVFR CONDITIONS RETURNING TONIGHT. KMOT WILL LIKELY BE ONE
OF THE ONLY SITES THAT REMAINS MVFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE
IS SOME MODEL INCONSISTENCY WITH FOG FORMING TONIGHT. THE MOST
LIKELY AREAS WILL BE ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER AND NORTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY FOG WAS LEFT OUT OF THE TAFS
FOR NOW. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST BY
TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JOHNSON
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