702
FXUS63 KBIS 080249
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
849 PM CST SAT FEB 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DENSE FOG ACROSS NORTHWEST AND EXPANDING INTO CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
- NEAR-RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE ON SUNDAY.
- LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW ON MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES TREND SLIGHTLY COOLER NEXT WEEK, BUT REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 848 PM CST SAT FEB 7 2026
A DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR COUNTIES ALONG AND
NORTH OF HIGHWAY 2, AND ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 83, IN EFFECT
UNTIL 10 AM CST SUNDAY. THE ADVISORY MAY NEED EXPANDING, BUT
WILL WAIT AND MONITOR OBSERVED TRENDS. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO PROJECT HIGH CONFIDENCE IN DENSE FOG SPREADING SOUTHEASTWARD
THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA LATER TONIGHT.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 615 PM CST SAT FEB 7 2026
THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE NEAR-TERM PERIOD IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
DENSE FOG DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
LATER THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT. RECENT MODEL GUIDANCE THAT
SIMULATES SURFACE VISIBILITY HAS BECOME MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE
WITH WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG DEVELOPING ALONG AND TO THE WEST OF
THE CURRENT STRATUS SHIELD, WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES FOR
QUARTER MILE OR LESS VISIBILITY FROM AROUND TIOGA AND STANLEY TO
BISMARCK. SURFACE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE ALREADY LOW, AND
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A VERY STRONG AND DRY INVERSION ABOVE THE
NEAR-SURFACE LAYER. TWO POSSIBLE PROHIBITING FACTORS FOR FOG
FORMATION ARE MID TO HIGH CLOUDS AND STRONGER WINDS AROUND 1 KM
AGL, BUT THE DECOUPLING BOUNDARY LAYER IS ALREADY NEARING
SATURATION. IT MAY NOT BE LONG UNTIL ENHANCED MESSAGING IS
NEEDED AS THERE IS ALREADY AN AUTOMATED OBSERVATION IN FAR
WESTERN WARD COUNTY REPORTING VISIBILITY UNDER ONE MILE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 214 PM CST SAT FEB 7 2026
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OUT WEST CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS HAS BROUGHT FORTH WARMER WEATHER. A WARM
FRONT HAS MOVED INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON SWITCHING WIND
TO WESTERLY ACROSS MONTANA AND WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THE WARM
FRONT HAS PUSHED ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE, AS OF
20Z, WARMING SITES IN THE WEST INTO THE UPPER 40S SO FAR THIS
AFTERNOON PUSHING LOW STRATUS EASTWARD. NOW THE LOW STRATUS IS
FORECAST TO STALL OUT LATER TONIGHT ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE STATE POTENTIAL GROWING WESTWARD. PATCHY FOG COULD FORM
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL HALF OF THE STATE TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW MORNING. HI-RES MODELS HAVE PATCHY FOG FORMING AROUND
THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE FORECAST
TO DROP DOWN INTO THE UPPER TEENS IN THE RED RIVER VALLEY AND
AND THE SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING IN THE SOUTHWEST.
TOMORROW TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO WARM INTO THE 50S TO LOWER
60S IN THE SOUTHWEST WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE WARNING AREA IN
THE 40S. WESTERLY WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES SUPPORT WARM
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AS THE RIDGE AXIS PASSES
OVERHEAD. RECORD TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE STATE INCLUDING WILLISTON, DICKINSON, AND MINOT
WHILE BISMARCK WILL HAVE A HARDER TIME REACHING THE RECORD AS IT
IS ON THE EDGE OF THE THERMAL RIDGE. RECORD TEMPERATURES ARE
DEPENDENT ON CLEARING SKIES IF SKIES REMAIN OVERCAST THERE IS A
CHANCE TEMPERATURES STAYING ON THE COOLER SIDE. THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL FLATTEN INTO ZONAL FLOW AS A CLIPPER PASSES TO THE
NORTH MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING FORTH COOLER TEMPERATURES INTO
THE REGION, HOWEVER TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN ABOUT 5
TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. SOME OF THE HI-RES MODELS ARE
HINTING AT A BANDED PRECIPITATION EVENT TAKING PLACE MONDAY
WHILE THE GLOBAL MODELS AND THE NBM HAVE LOWER CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION. PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE FORECAST TO BE A RAIN
SNOW MIX DURING THE DAY AND SNOW OVERNIGHT. THERE IS STILL QUIET
A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS EVENT.
QUASI-ZONAL PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK WITH CHANCES 20 TO 40 PERCENT FOR RAIN AND SNOW WED INTO
THU. PERSISTENT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE REST OF NEXT WEEK AS WELL WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S.
SOME DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAVE BEEN HINTING AT A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL LOW MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS, BUT THE
MODELS SEEM TO FLIP FLOP DAILY ON THIS SYSTEM IN THE EXTENDED.
THE ENSEMBLES ARE NOT IN AGREEMENT WITH ANY SOLUTIONS FOR NEXT
WEEKEND SO STAY UP TO DATE WITH THE LATEST FORECAST.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 615 PM CST SAT FEB 7 2026
MUCH OF NORTHERN AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA BEGINS THE 00Z TAF
CYCLE WITH LOW CEILINGS RANGING FROM MVFR FROM AROUND KMOT TO
KJMS TO AS LOW AS LIFR ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. THE MOST
LIKELY OUTCOME FOR TONIGHT IS FOR IFR/LIFR CEILINGS TO EXPAND TO
THE SOUTH AND WEST. THERE IS ALSO INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN FOG
DEVELOPING UNDERNEATH THE LOW CLOUDS ACROSS MOST OF NORTHWEST
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA LATER THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT. THE
FOG COULD BECOME DENSE, ESPECIALLY FROM BETWEEN KXWA AND KMOT
TO AROUND KBIS. KXWA AND KDIK ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR THE EDGE
OF THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG, BUT THERE ARE HIGHER ODDS FOR A FEW
HOURS OF CATEGORICAL RESTRICTIONS AT KXWA THAN AT KDIK. KJMS
WILL MAINTAIN A LOW CEILING BUT HAS MUCH LOWER PROBABILITIES FOR
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS.
THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST
SUNDAY MORNING. ALL TERMINALS SHOULD RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS
FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MOSTLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT
BECOMING WEST-SOUTHWEST SUNDAY AFTERNOON AT AROUND 10 KTS IN
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TO 15-20 KTS IN WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. KXWA
AND SURROUNDING AREAS COULD SEE AFTERNOON GUSTS APPROACH 30 KTS.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST SUNDAY FOR NDZ001>003-
009>011.
UPDATE...HOLLAN
DISCUSSION...JOHNSON
AVIATION...HOLLAN
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