859
FXUS63 KBIS 081018
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
418 AM CST SUN FEB 8 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DENSE FOG ACROSS NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS
MORNING.
- NEAR-RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE TODAY.
- LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW ON MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES TREND SLIGHTLY COOLER NEXT WEEK, BUT REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 405 AM CST SUN FEB 8 2026
CURRENTLY, BROAD/DIRTY UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS THIS MORNING, WITH AN UPPER LEVEL JET NOSING INTO THE
MONTANA ROCKIES. MID LEVEL WAVE AND LEFT EXIT REGION JET
DYNAMICS TRIGGERING LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SOUTHERN
ALBERTA, WHILE A WEAK FLOW REGIME IS CURRENTLY OVER THE DAKOTAS.
STRATUS AND FOG EXTEND FROM NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA SOUTHEAST
THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL ND AND POINTS EAST, WITH DENSE FOG ON THE
WESTERN FRINGES OF THE STRATUS LAYER OVER MY NORTHWEST AND
CENTRAL. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE AERIAL COVERAGE OF THE
DENSE FOG FOR FURTHER MODIFICATIONS TO DENSE FOG HEADLINES THIS
MORNING. AS WINDS BECOME MORE WESTERLY THIS MORNING, DO EXPECT
THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TO PUSH EAST WITH TIME.
NEAR RECORD BREAKING HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE STATE. A QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT COUPLED WITH THE
WARM SECTOR OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC LOW SPREADING EAST OVER
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA DURING THE DAY TODAY. THIS
COMBINED WITH A GOOD WESTERLY MIXING FLOW WILL RESULT IN
TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 40F IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS TO THE
LOWER 60S IN SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. SHOULD BE PLENTY OF SUN AS
WELL AS CLOUDS DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST THIS MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP FORECAST HIGHS CLOSE TO THE 75TH/90TH
PERCENTILE OF THE NBM, WITH A FEW RECORD HIGHS IN JEOPARDY OF
BEING BROKEN WITH FORECAST TEMPERATURES 30 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
THEREAFTER, UPPER LEVEL JET STREAM STARTS TO SAG FARTHER SOUTH
ALONG WITH A TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS
PATTERN CHANGE WILL SUGGEST TEMPERATURES TRENDING COOLER NEXT
WEEK (THOUGH REMAINING ABOVE NORMAL), ALONG WITH A MORE ACTIVE
PATTERN DEVELOPING INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES A BIT.
MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON CHANCES EARLY NEXT WEEK, NOW ONLY A
BRIEF PERIOD OF RAIN/SNOW CHANCES LATE SUN INTO MON AS A MID
LEVEL WAVE INTERACTS WITH A SOUTHWARD DIPPING COLD FROPA. MESSY
SPLIT FLOW UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK
WEEK, WITH NO REAL CLEAR SIGNAL FOR PRECIPITATION ANY GIVEN
DAY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1053 PM CST SAT FEB 7 2026
IFR/LIFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF
NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. AT 04Z, DENSE FOG WAS LOCATED BETWEEN AND TO THE
NORTH OF KXWA AND KMOT. KXWA COULD REMAIN RIGHT ON THE EDGE OF
THE LOW CLOUDS AND DENSE FOG. THE LOW CEILINGS WILL PERSIST FROM
KMOT TO KJMS, AND REACH KBIS OVERNIGHT. KBIS HAS THE HIGHEST
PROBABILITY FOR DENSE FOG AMONG TAF SITES, FOLLOWED BY KMOT, BUT
IT CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT KXWA OVERNIGHT OR KJMS EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. KDIK IS MORE LIKELY TO REMAIN AT VFR CONDITIONS.
THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST
SUNDAY MORNING. ALL TERMINALS SHOULD RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS
FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MOSTLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT
BECOMING WEST-SOUTHWEST SUNDAY AFTERNOON AT AROUND 10 KTS IN
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TO 15-20 KTS IN WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. KXWA
AND SURROUNDING AREAS COULD SEE AFTERNOON GUSTS APPROACH 30 KTS.
A PERIOD OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED ACROSS PARTS OF
NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA, INCLUDING KMOT, SUNDAY EVENING.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST /9 AM MST/ THIS MORNING FOR
NDZ001>003-009>011-019>021.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST /9 AM MST/ THIS MORNING FOR
NDZ034-035-042.
DISCUSSION...NH
AVIATION...HOLLAN
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