600
FXUS63 KBIS 081804
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1204 PM CST SUN FEB 8 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DENSE FOG ACROSS NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS
MORNING.
- NEAR-RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE TODAY.
- LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW ON MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES TREND SLIGHTLY COOLER NEXT WEEK, BUT REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1153 AM CST SUN FEB 8 2026
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST WITH
DICKINSON ALREADY ABOVE 50. THE CENTRAL HALF OF THE STATE IS
STARTING TO CLEAR OUT THUS THE CENTRAL HALF WILL HAVE A DELAYED
START WARMING THIS AFTERNOON. RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES MAYBE
HARDER FOR THE CENTRAL SITES. FOG IS CLEARING OUT ACROSS THE
REGION WITH ISOLATED POCKETS OF FOG REMAINING FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. BREEZY WEST WINDS WILL PICK UP OUT WEST ENHANCING WARMER
WEATHER. NO UPDATES ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 918 AM CST SUN FEB 8 2026
FOG CONTINUES TO EXPAND EASTWARD AND ERODE WESTWARD. THUS THE
FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL NOON. THIS COULD HINDER
RECORD TEMPERATURES FOR EASTERN CLIMATE SITES RESULTING IN
COOLER TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON. NO MAJOR UPDATES WERE NEEDED
TO THE CURRENT FORECAST.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 619 AM CST SUN FEB 8 2026
THERE WERE NO MAJOR UPDATES WITH THIS PRODUCT ISSUANCE. STARTING
TO SEE SIGNS OF THE FOG LIFTING IN THE FAR NORTHWEST AND PARTS
OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL. FOR NOW, WILL MAINTAIN THE DENSE FOG
ADVISORY AS IS. SEE BELOW FOR FURTHER DISCUSSION.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 405 AM CST SUN FEB 8 2026
CURRENTLY, BROAD/DIRTY UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS THIS MORNING, WITH AN UPPER LEVEL JET NOSING INTO THE
MONTANA ROCKIES. MID LEVEL WAVE AND LEFT EXIT REGION JET
DYNAMICS TRIGGERING LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SOUTHERN
ALBERTA, WHILE A WEAK FLOW REGIME IS CURRENTLY OVER THE DAKOTAS.
STRATUS AND FOG EXTEND FROM NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA SOUTHEAST
THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL ND AND POINTS EAST, WITH DENSE FOG ON THE
WESTERN FRINGES OF THE STRATUS LAYER OVER MY NORTHWEST AND
CENTRAL. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE AERIAL COVERAGE OF THE
DENSE FOG FOR FURTHER MODIFICATIONS TO DENSE FOG HEADLINES THIS
MORNING. AS WINDS BECOME MORE WESTERLY THIS MORNING, DO EXPECT
THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TO PUSH EAST WITH TIME.
NEAR RECORD BREAKING HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE STATE. A QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT COUPLED WITH THE
WARM SECTOR OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC LOW SPREADING EAST OVER
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA DURING THE DAY TODAY. THIS
COMBINED WITH A GOOD WESTERLY MIXING FLOW WILL RESULT IN
TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 40F IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS TO THE
LOWER 60S IN SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. SHOULD BE PLENTY OF SUN AS
WELL AS CLOUDS DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST THIS MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP FORECAST HIGHS CLOSE TO THE 75TH/90TH
PERCENTILE OF THE NBM, WITH A FEW RECORD HIGHS IN JEOPARDY OF
BEING BROKEN WITH FORECAST TEMPERATURES 30 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
THEREAFTER, UPPER LEVEL JET STREAM STARTS TO SAG FARTHER SOUTH
ALONG WITH A TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS
PATTERN CHANGE WILL SUGGEST TEMPERATURES TRENDING COOLER NEXT
WEEK (THOUGH REMAINING ABOVE NORMAL), ALONG WITH A MORE ACTIVE
PATTERN DEVELOPING INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES A BIT.
MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON CHANCES EARLY NEXT WEEK, NOW ONLY A
BRIEF PERIOD OF RAIN/SNOW CHANCES LATE SUN INTO MON AS A MID
LEVEL WAVE INTERACTS WITH A SOUTHWARD DIPPING COLD FROPA. MESSY
SPLIT FLOW UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK
WEEK, WITH NO REAL CLEAR SIGNAL FOR PRECIPITATION ANY GIVEN
DAY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1153 AM CST SUN FEB 8 2026
CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO CLEAR OUT ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA LEADING TO VFR CONDITIONS. THERE COULD BE SOME LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR ACROSS KXWA AND KMOT THIS AFTERNOON. WIND WILL
VEER OUT OF THE WEST AS A WARM FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CLEAR OUT EAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE STATE. WIND GUSTS WILL DIMINISH
AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST /11 AM MST/ TODAY FOR
NDZ002>004-010>012-020>022-034>036-045>047-050.
UPDATE...JOHNSON
DISCUSSION...NH
AVIATION...JOHNSON
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