202
FXUS63 KBIS 090013
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
613 PM CST SUN FEB 8 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FAVORED FOR MOST AREAS THIS
WEEK, WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND 40S.
- MEDIUM CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTH
DAKOTA MONDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 612 PM CST SUN FEB 8 2026
DENSE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS ARE FINALLY CLEARING FROM THE TURTLE
MOUNTAINS AREA. SOME MODELS ARE SHOWING FOG DEVELOPING ALONG AN
AXIS OF SURFACE/LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN THE SOUTHERN
JAMES RIVER VALLEY LATER THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT, BUT
STRONGER WINDS ABOVE THE NEAR-SURFACE LAYER AND THICKER MID TO
HIGH CLOUDS COULD LIMIT THIS POTENTIAL. A MENTION OF PATCHY FOG
HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE FORECAST. OTHER FORECAST CHANGES FOR THIS
UPDATE INCLUDED 1) BOOSTING POPS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY ACROSS
SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA MONDAY MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON WITH
GUIDANCE CONSOLIDATING ON THE LOCATION OF A BROAD BAND OF LIGHT
RAIN, MIXING WITH SNOW AT TIMES; 2) DECREASED THE HIGH
TEMPERATURE FORECAST IN SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA ON MONDAY WHERE
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT
PRECIPITATION DURING PEAKING HEATING; AND 3) INCREASED SKY COVER
THROUGH TONIGHT BASED ON LATE AFTERNOON VISUAL OBSERVATIONS OF
THE THICKNESS OF THE MID TO HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING OVER THE
REGION.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 223 PM CST SUN FEB 8 2026
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE 50S OUT WEST WITH MID 40S
ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL. A WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON PUSHING OUT THE LOW STRATUS.
THERE ARE SOME HIGH CLOUDS LINGERING ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA
WHICH WILL LIKELY CAP TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S WITH A THE
CHANCE OF A FEW SITES REACHING THE LOWER 60S. TONIGHT,
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO DROP DOWN INTO THE LOWER 30S. THE
HI-RES MODELS ARE HINTING AT A BANDED PRECIPITATION EVENT TAKING
PLACE TONIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE FORECAST TO BE LIGHT RAIN DURING THE
DAY AND A LIGHT RAIN SNOW MIX SNOW OVERNIGHT. THIS IS THE FIRST
RUN WERE THE CAMS HAVE BEEN IN SOME WHAT AN AGREEMENT OF TIMING
AND LOCATION. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL DOWN INTO THE 30S TO LOWER
40S MONDAY AFTERNOON. EVEN THOUGH COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE
INCOMING MONDAY'S TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL 5 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
QUASI-ZONAL PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK
WITH CHANCES 20 TO 40 PERCENT FOR RAIN AND SNOW WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY ALONG THE NORTH AND SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER. PERSISTENT
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THIS
COMING WEEK AS WELL WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S. THE PATTERN
COULD BE MORE ACTIVE NEXT WEEKEND AS THE ENSEMBLES HAVE A
TROUGHING PATTERN OUT WEST.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 612 PM CST SUN FEB 8 2026
MOST TERMINALS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA SHOULD
SEE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. PATCHY FOG AND
LOW CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE IN PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN
NORTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT, BUT ARE UNLIKELY TO
IMPACT KJMS OR KMOT. AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN, MIXED WITH SNOW AT
TIMES, IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA FROM
WEST TO EAST MONDAY MORNING, THEN SAG SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE
PRECIPITATION.
GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA
THROUGH TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL ALSO IMPACT NORTH
CENTRAL PARTS OF THE STATE, INCLUDING KMOT, THROUGH THIS
EVENING. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY AROUND 10-15 KTS ON
MONDAY, WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS ACROSS THE NORTH.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...HOLLAN
DISCUSSION...JOHNSON
AVIATION...HOLLAN
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page