950
FXUS63 KBIS 090709
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
109 AM CST MON FEB 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FAVORED FOR MOST AREAS THIS
WEEK, WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND 40S.
- MEDIUM CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTH
DAKOTA MONDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 108 AM CST MON FEB 9 2026
THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT REMAINS ON TRACK. MADE ONLY MINIMAL
EDITS WITH THIS PRODUCT ISSUANCE, MAINLY BLENDING THE FORECAST
TO LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1011 PM CST SUN FEB 8 2026
OBSERVED AND MODELED TRENDS WERE BLENDED INTO THE FORECAST FOR
THIS UPDATE, RESULTING IN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. CURRENT RADAR
DOES SHOW RETURNS STREAMING ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF
THE STATE. CEILINGS HAVE LOWERED TO 7,000 FT AGL, BUT THERE IS
NO EVIDENCE OF PRECIPITATION REACHING THE GROUND AS OF THIS
WRITING. DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANYTHING BEYOND SPRINKLES UNTIL
STRONGER FRONTOGENESIS BEGINS TO SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS
SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. 00Z
CAMS APPEAR EVENLY SPLIT ON WHETHER PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AS
RAIN OR SNOW MONDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON, WHICH IMPLIES THAT
TYPES WILL BE HIGHLY SENSITIVE TO NEAR-SURFACE AIR AND WET-BULB
TEMPERATURES. THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES FOR SNOW AS A TYPE ARE
IN SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. HREF PROBABILITY-MATCHED MEAN QPF IS
IN THE ONE TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH RANGE WHERE THE HIGHER SNOW
PROBABILITIES ARE LOCATED, BUT NEAR TO ABOVE FREEZING SURFACE
AIR AND WET-BULB TEMPERATURES SHOULD KEEP SNOW AMOUNTS VERY
MINIMAL TO NONE.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 612 PM CST SUN FEB 8 2026
DENSE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS ARE FINALLY CLEARING FROM THE TURTLE
MOUNTAINS AREA. SOME MODELS ARE SHOWING FOG DEVELOPING ALONG AN
AXIS OF SURFACE/LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN THE SOUTHERN
JAMES RIVER VALLEY LATER THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT, BUT
STRONGER WINDS ABOVE THE NEAR-SURFACE LAYER AND THICKER MID TO
HIGH CLOUDS COULD LIMIT THIS POTENTIAL. A MENTION OF PATCHY FOG
HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE FORECAST. OTHER FORECAST CHANGES FOR THIS
UPDATE INCLUDED 1) BOOSTING POPS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY ACROSS
SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA MONDAY MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON WITH
GUIDANCE CONSOLIDATING ON THE LOCATION OF A BROAD BAND OF LIGHT
RAIN, MIXING WITH SNOW AT TIMES; 2) DECREASED THE HIGH
TEMPERATURE FORECAST IN SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA ON MONDAY WHERE
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT
PRECIPITATION DURING PEAKING HEATING; AND 3) INCREASED SKY COVER
THROUGH TONIGHT BASED ON LATE AFTERNOON VISUAL OBSERVATIONS OF
THE THICKNESS OF THE MID TO HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING OVER THE
REGION.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 223 PM CST SUN FEB 8 2026
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE 50S OUT WEST WITH MID 40S
ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL. A WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON PUSHING OUT THE LOW STRATUS.
THERE ARE SOME HIGH CLOUDS LINGERING ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA
WHICH WILL LIKELY CAP TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S WITH A THE
CHANCE OF A FEW SITES REACHING THE LOWER 60S. TONIGHT,
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO DROP DOWN INTO THE LOWER 30S. THE
HI-RES MODELS ARE HINTING AT A BANDED PRECIPITATION EVENT TAKING
PLACE TONIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE FORECAST TO BE LIGHT RAIN DURING THE
DAY AND A LIGHT RAIN SNOW MIX SNOW OVERNIGHT. THIS IS THE FIRST
RUN WERE THE CAMS HAVE BEEN IN SOME WHAT AN AGREEMENT OF TIMING
AND LOCATION. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL DOWN INTO THE 30S TO LOWER
40S MONDAY AFTERNOON. EVEN THOUGH COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE
INCOMING MONDAY'S TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL 5 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
QUASI-ZONAL PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK
WITH CHANCES 20 TO 40 PERCENT FOR RAIN AND SNOW WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY ALONG THE NORTH AND SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER. PERSISTENT
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THIS
COMING WEEK AS WELL WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S. THE PATTERN
COULD BE MORE ACTIVE NEXT WEEKEND AS THE ENSEMBLES HAVE A
TROUGHING PATTERN OUT WEST.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1011 PM CST SUN FEB 8 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT MOST TERMINALS THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW IS LIKELY TO
DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY
MORNING, THEN SAG SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MVFR TO IFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE PRECIPITATION IN
THE SOUTHWEST CORNER OF THE STATE, BUT KDIK IS MORE LIKELY TO
REMAIN AT VFR UNLESS A PERIOD OF SNOW OCCURS. THERE COULD ALSO
BE ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR CEILINGS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL
AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA LATER TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY, BUT THIS
IS NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT KMOT OR KJMS.
GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA
THROUGH TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL ALSO IMPACT NORTH
CENTRAL PARTS OF THE STATE, INCLUDING KMOT, THROUGH THIS
EVENING. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY AROUND 10-15 KTS ON
MONDAY, WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS ACROSS THE NORTH.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...NH
DISCUSSION...JOHNSON
AVIATION...HOLLAN
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page