375
FXUS63 KBIS 091021
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
421 AM CST MON FEB 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FAVORED FOR MOST AREAS THIS WEEK,
WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND 40S.
- MEDIUM CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTH
DAKOTA THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 415 AM CST MON FEB 9 2026
CURRENTLY, ZONAL FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH A
S/WV TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND ANOTHER S/WV TO OUR
NORTHEAST. LEFT EXIT REGION UPPER JET DYNAMICS SPREADING EAST
OVER THE REGION, CONTRIBUTING TO CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT RADAR
RETURNS. ELEVATED CLOUD BASES OVER 7-8K FT AGL PREVENTING
ANYTHING BEING REPORTED AT THE SURFACE EARLY THIS MORNING, SO
WILL STICK WITH LOW POPS INITIALLY.
AFOREMENTIONED PACIFIC NW S/WV WILL CONTINUE EAST OVER THE
ROCKIES AND INTO THE DAKOTAS TODAY, INTERACTING WITH A SOUTHWARD
MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO BRING DECENT PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO
SOUTHWEST AND OTHER PARTS OF SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING
AFTER 12Z AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. SUFFICIENT FORCING ASSOCIATED
WITH THE MID LEVEL WAVE LINKING WITH LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENSIS
SOUTHWEST WHERE MODELS SHOW NEARLY A QUARTER INCH OF LIQUID
THROUGH THE DAY, SOME FALLING AS SNOW BUT ONLY LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS LESS THAN HALF AN INCH FORECAST. LIGHTER AMOUNTS
FARTHER EAST WHERE LINKED FORCING IS WEAKER.
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL JET STREAM MIGRATING FARTHER SOUTH OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS, TEMPERATURES WILL TREND COOLER COMPARED TO
SUNDAY, BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL BY ABOUT 15-20 DEGREES THROUGH
MID-WEEK. QUASI-ZONAL FLOW PATTERN TRANSITIONS TO SPLIT FLOW TO
END THE WEEK, NUDGING TEMPERATURES UPWARDS AND MAINTAINING A
MAINLY DRY FORECAST.
LOOKING FARTHER AHEAD TO NEXT WEEKEND INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEK,
ENSEMBLES ARE FAVORING A GENERAL TROUGHING PATTERN OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS, WITH A MORE ACTIVE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PATTERN
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. DETAILS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1011 PM CST SUN FEB 8 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT MOST TERMINALS THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW IS LIKELY TO
DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY
MORNING, THEN SAG SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MVFR TO IFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE PRECIPITATION IN
THE SOUTHWEST CORNER OF THE STATE, BUT KDIK IS MORE LIKELY TO
REMAIN AT VFR UNLESS A PERIOD OF SNOW OCCURS. THERE COULD ALSO
BE ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR CEILINGS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL
AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA LATER TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY, BUT THIS
IS NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT KMOT OR KJMS.
GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA
THROUGH TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL ALSO IMPACT NORTH
CENTRAL PARTS OF THE STATE, INCLUDING KMOT, THROUGH THIS
EVENING. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY AROUND 10-15 KTS ON
MONDAY, WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS ACROSS THE NORTH.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...JOHNSON
AVIATION...HOLLAN
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