364
FXUS63 KBIS 091510
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
910 AM CST MON FEB 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FAVORED FOR MOST AREAS THIS WEEK,
WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND 40S.
- MEDIUM CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTH
DAKOTA THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 904 AM CST MON FEB 9 2026
QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS THE STATE. THERE ARE SOME SLIGHT
RETURNS ON RADAR HOWEVER THE PRECIP IS NOT TOUCHING THE GROUND
DUE TO A MID LEVEL DRY LAYER. THERE ARE SOME SITES REPORTING
RAIN IN MONTANA AS THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS DOWN.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 624 AM CST MON FEB 9 2026
THE FORECAST FOR THIS MORNING REMAINS ON TRACK. SEE BELOW FOR
MORE DETAILED DISCUSSION AND UPDATED AVIATION SECTION.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 415 AM CST MON FEB 9 2026
CURRENTLY, ZONAL FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH A
S/WV TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND ANOTHER S/WV TO OUR
NORTHEAST. LEFT EXIT REGION UPPER JET DYNAMICS SPREADING EAST
OVER THE REGION, CONTRIBUTING TO CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT RADAR
RETURNS. ELEVATED CLOUD BASES OVER 7-8K FT AGL PREVENTING
ANYTHING BEING REPORTED AT THE SURFACE EARLY THIS MORNING, SO
WILL STICK WITH LOW POPS INITIALLY.
AFOREMENTIONED PACIFIC NW S/WV WILL CONTINUE EAST OVER THE
ROCKIES AND INTO THE DAKOTAS TODAY, INTERACTING WITH A SOUTHWARD
MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO BRING DECENT PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO
SOUTHWEST AND OTHER PARTS OF SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING
AFTER 12Z AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. SUFFICIENT FORCING ASSOCIATED
WITH THE MID LEVEL WAVE LINKING WITH LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENSIS
SOUTHWEST WHERE MODELS SHOW NEARLY A QUARTER INCH OF LIQUID
THROUGH THE DAY, SOME FALLING AS SNOW BUT ONLY LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS LESS THAN HALF AN INCH FORECAST. LIGHTER AMOUNTS
FARTHER EAST WHERE LINKED FORCING IS WEAKER.
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL JET STREAM MIGRATING FARTHER SOUTH OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS, TEMPERATURES WILL TREND COOLER COMPARED TO
SUNDAY, BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL BY ABOUT 15-20 DEGREES THROUGH
MID-WEEK. QUASI-ZONAL FLOW PATTERN TRANSITIONS TO SPLIT FLOW TO
END THE WEEK, NUDGING TEMPERATURES UPWARDS AND MAINTAINING A
MAINLY DRY FORECAST.
LOOKING FARTHER AHEAD TO NEXT WEEKEND INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEK,
ENSEMBLES ARE FAVORING A GENERAL TROUGHING PATTERN OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS, WITH A MORE ACTIVE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PATTERN
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. DETAILS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 624 AM CST MON FEB 9 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS FOR THE 12Z TAF
PERIOD. AN OVERCAST SKY CAN BE EXPECTED THIS MORNING, WITH
DECREASING CLOUDS LATER TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. AN AREA OF
LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA
FROM WEST TO EAST THIS MORNING, ENDING THIS AFTERNOON. A PERIOD
OF BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS AND/OR VISIBILITY WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THE PRECIPITATION, ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHWEST (POSSIBLY
KDIK). WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY AROUND 10-15 KTS TODAY,
WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS ACROSS THE NORTH.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...JOHNSON
DISCUSSION...NH
AVIATION...NH
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