843
FXUS63 KBIS 100617
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1217 AM CST TUE FEB 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- PATCHY FOG TONIGHT IN THE SOUTHWEST.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FAVORED FOR MOST AREAS THIS WEEK,
WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND 40S.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1217 AM CST TUE FEB 10 2026
NO CHANGES NEEDED WITH THIS UPDATE. STILL WATCHING LOW STRATUS
EXPAND VIA NIGHTTIME SATELLITE IMAGERY, WITH BREEZY WINDS
ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. HIGH-RES GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF A BIT ON FOG
DEVELOPMENT BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THROUGH THE NIGHT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1015 PM CST MON FEB 9 2026
LIMITED UPDATES NEEDED LATE THIS EVENING. PRECIPITATION HAS
DIMINISHED OR MOVED OUT OF NORTH DAKOTA. A WEAK SECONDARY COLD
FRONT IS PUSHING ACROSS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AND CURRENTLY
BRINGING SOME LOWER CLOUDS TO THE AREA. EXPECT THIS FRONT TO
CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT LINGERING
SOME LOWER CLOUDS. PERHAPS A FEW FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
CLOUDS, ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO PLACE IN THE
FORECAST AT THIS TIME. AREAS WITH PARTIAL CLEARING COULD SEE
SOME PATCHY FOG TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST. OTHER THAT SOME
MINOR CHANGES TO SKY COVER THE FORECAST OVERALL REMAINS ON
TRACK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 545 PM CST MON FEB 9 2026
LIMITED UPDATES NEEDED EARLY THIS EVENING. THERE IS SOME LIGHT
RAIN AND SNOW BEING REPORTED NEAR THE ND/SD BORDER AND COULD
LINGER INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. OTHERWISE PARTLY CLEAR TO
CLOUDY SKIES WILL BE FOUND TONIGHT WITH PERHAPS SOME PATCHY FOG
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND COOLER LOWS IN THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S.
OVERALL JUST MINOR UPDATES TO POPS BASED ON CURRENT RADAR
TRENDS FOR THIS UPDATE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 320 PM CST MON FEB 9 2026
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A WAVE MOVING THROUGH SOUTH DAKOTA
ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY. DRY LAYER ALOFT AND SUBSIDENCE IS
HINDERING PRECIPITATION FROM REACHING I-94. RAIN AND SNOW HAS
BEEN OBSERVED IN THE SOUTHWEST TODAY FROM THIS WAVE. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO WARM INTO THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.
TONIGHT TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO DROP DOWN INTO THE UPPER
TEENS TO MID 20S. PATCHY FOG IS FORECAST TO FORM IN THE
SOUTHWEST TONIGHT LIGHTER WINDS RECENT MOISTURE COULD ENABLE FOG
DEVELOPMENT.
THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STAGNANT THIS WEEK. TEMPERATURES
WILL RANGE FROM THE 30S TO 40S ALL WEEK. THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN A QUASI ZONAL FLOW INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
A SPLIT FLOW UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL MAJORITY OF THE WAVES
NORTH AND SOUTH OF NORTH DAKOTA. THURSDAY ONE OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED WAVES COULD MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
HOWEVER THE ONLY PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE ALONG THE NORTH AND
SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER. SPLIT FLOW WILL REMAIN THROUGH WEEKEND
KEEPING THE PATTERN FAIRLY QUIET. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO DIG ACROSS WESTERN CONUS EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH COULD
LEAD TO A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1217 AM CST TUE FEB 10 2026
CLOUDY SKIES WILL BE FOUND TO START TONIGHT, WITH SOME MVFR
CEILINGS. PATCHY FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST,
ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT
THIS TIME. A MIX OF CLEARING SKIES AND LINGERING FEW TO SCT MVFR
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED FOR TOMORROW. MOST SITES SHOULD THEN RETURN TO
VFR CONDITIONS TOMORROW AFTERNOON OR EVENING. WESTERLY WINDS WILL
ALSO BE FOUND TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY, BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TUESDAY NIGHT. A BRIEF PERIOD OF BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS MAY BE FOUND
TONIGHT, MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF NORTH DAKOTA.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...JONES
DISCUSSION...JOHNSON
AVIATION...ANGLIN
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