367
FXUS63 KBIS 100950
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
350 AM CST TUE FEB 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LOW CHANCE FOR A LIGHT WINTRY MIX ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING.
- PATCHY FOG ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FAVORED FOR MOST AREAS THIS WEEK,
WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 30S AND 40S.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 350 AM CST TUE FEB 10 2026
EARLY THIS MORNING, THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS WAS A
BIT DISORGANIZED, WITH FLOW OVER NORTH DAKOTA TURNING MORE
NORTHWESTERLY. AT THE SURFACE, A COLD FRONT WAS MOVING THROUGH
THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE STATE, WITH BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS
ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. WIDESPREAD LOW STRATUS
WAS ALSO PRESENT ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE. UPSTREAM
IN EASTERN MONTANA, THERE APPEARS TO BE SOME SORT OF IMPULSE
RIDING OVER A WEAK BOUNDARY, WITH LIGHT RADAR RETURNS ACROSS
NORTHEAST MONTANA. THERE HAVE BEEN REPORTS OF A COUPLE HUNDRETHS
OF LIQUID (UNKNOWN P-TYPE) MAKING IT TO THE SURFACE IN THIS
GENERAL AREA, SO WE DID ADD IN SOME LOW POPS TO PARTS OF WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH MID-MORNING. THERE ARE SOME QUESTIONS
ABOUT THE DEPTH OF THE VERY NEAR SURFACE SATURATED LAYER AND IF
CLOUD HEIGHTS WILL BE TOO HIGH THE FURTHER EAST YOU GO, BUT
THESE UPSTREAM OBS GAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO AT LEAST ADD A
MENTION TO THE GRIDDED FORECAST. BASED ON SURFACE TEMPS AND
FORECAST SOUNDINGS FELT A WINTRY MIX WAS APPROPRIATE, BUT WOULD
EXPECT LITTLE IMPACT, IF ANY, FROM THIS MORNING PRECIPITATION.
WE ARE ALSO WATCHING FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT IN SOUTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA THIS MORNING, WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY AT LEAST SHOWING
CLOUD COVER IN THE FAR CORNER, ALTHOUGH HIGH-RES GUIDANCE HAS
BACKED OFF ON VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS AND THIS COULD BE MORE OF A
LOW STRATUS VS. FOG SCENARIO BASED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN THIS
AREA. BAKER, MT DID RECENTLY DROP TO ONE HALF MILE VISIBILITY.
THE WEATHER TODAY, AND FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK, LOOKS
QUITE BENIGN AS WE END UP ON THE MILDER SIDE OF PERSISTENT
CYCLONIC FLOW PAIRED WITH A DIFFUSE SURFACE PATTERN. HIGHS
TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS AREA
TO THE LOWER 40S SOUTHWEST, WITH A SLIGHT WARMING TREND
EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY. NBM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILES SHOW LITTLE
SPREAD SIGNALING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CONTINUED ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES, WITH LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES FOR SOUTHERN NORTH
DAKOTA TO RETURN TO THE 50 DEGREES F THRESHOLD ON FRIDAY. WE ARE
CURRENTLY CARRYING A DRY FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY AFTER THIS
MORNING, ALTHOUGH NORTHWEST FLOW IS NOTORIOUS FOR LOW
PREDICTABILITY SHORTWAVES BRINGING LIGHT PRECIPITATION EVENTS.
THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK WE START TO SEE SOME CHANGES TO THE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN, WITH ENSEMBLES SHOWING SOME VARIETY OF SPLIT
FLOW ACROSS THE CONUS, WITH ZONAL FLOW DOMINATING THE NORTHERN
STREAM. THIS IS FAVORED TO KEEP TEMPERATURES STILL RELATIVELY
STEADY FROM THIS WEEK, BEFORE WE LOOK FURTHER INTO NEXT WEEK AND
START TO SEE HINTS OF A MORE SIGNIFICANT PATTERN SWITCH. CLUSTER
ANALYSIS REVEALS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS, LEADING TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS IS A FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR MORE
COOLER AND MORE ACTIVE WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION, MIRRORED IN
BLENDED POPS INCREASING TO START NEXT WORK WEEK, AND A SIMILAR
INDICATION IN CIPS EXTENDED ANALOGS AND CPC OUTLOOKS.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1217 AM CST TUE FEB 10 2026
CLOUDY SKIES WILL BE FOUND TO START TONIGHT, WITH SOME MVFR
CEILINGS. PATCHY FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST,
ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT
THIS TIME. A MIX OF CLEARING SKIES AND LINGERING FEW TO SCT MVFR
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED FOR TOMORROW. MOST SITES SHOULD THEN RETURN TO
VFR CONDITIONS TOMORROW AFTERNOON OR EVENING. WESTERLY WINDS WILL
ALSO BE FOUND TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY, BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TUESDAY NIGHT. A BRIEF PERIOD OF BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS MAY BE FOUND
TONIGHT, MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF NORTH DAKOTA.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...JONES
AVIATION...ANGLIN
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