439
FXUS63 KBIS 102041
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
241 PM CST TUE FEB 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE AROUND THE TURTLE MOUNTAIN ARE LATER
THIS EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FAVORED FOR MOST AREAS THIS WEEK,
WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 30S AND 40S.
- MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE ALSO FAVORED THIS WEEK.
- TEMPERATURES MAY TREND LOWER NEXT WEEK WITH A MORE ACTIVE
WEATHER PATTERN.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1247 PM CST TUE FEB 10 2026
WE ARE EXPECTING A QUIET WEATHER PATTERN TO CONTINUE THROUGH
MUCH OF THIS WEEK. CURRENTLY, A STATIONARY BOUNDARY WAS SITUATED
FROM NORTH CENTRAL INTO SOUTHEAST ND WITH A NORTHWEST SURFACE
FLOW EAST OF THIS BOUNDARY. SOUTHWEST SURFACE FLOW WAS INDICATED
OVER WESTERN ND. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL WORK IT'S WAY EAST AS
THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY PUSHES EAST AS A WARM FRONT.
EARLY IN THE PERIOD, THERE IS SOME MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION
CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT OVER SOUTHWEST ND, AND
SOME LOWER LEVEL CLOUDINESS OVER FAR NORTHEAST MONTANA AND INTO
FAR NORTHWEST ND. LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES EAST INTO EASTERN
ND TONIGHT. THERE MAY BE SOME LOWER LEVEL STRATUS/FOG AROUND
THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS LATER TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE
RAP AND HRRR ARE BOTH INDICATING SOME LOW STRATUS/FOG HERE LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. WILL SEE HOW TRENDS CONTINUE
BUT FOR NOW WILL ADD SOME PATCHY FOG AROUND THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THE LOW STRATUS, IF IT PANS OUT, MAY KEEP A LID ON TEMPERATURES
OVER THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS AREA WEDNESDAY. ELSEWHERE TEMPERATURES
IN THE 40S LOOK REASONABLE, WITH SOME LOWER 50S POSSIBLE IN THE
SOUTHWEST.
THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND LOOKS QUIET WITH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES (NORMALS RANGE FROM AROUND 20 DEGREES
IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 30 DEGREES IN THE SOUTHWEST)
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE MAIN WESTERLIES REMAIN WELL TO THE
NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA, KEEPING A WEAK SURFACE
PRESSURE PATTERN IN PLACE WITH A COUPLE OF WEAK IMPULSES
TRAVERSING THE CWA. CURRENTLY THE NBM IS NOT DEPICTING ANY QPF
WITH THESE WEAK WAVES. CAN'T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SPRINKLE OF
FLURRY BUT SEE NO REASON TO DEVIATE FROM THE DRY FORECAST AT
THIS TIME.
AS WE GET INTO THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND MORESO INTO
THE EARLY TO MID PORTION OF NEXT WEEK, THERE IS A DEFINITE
DOWNWARD TREND IN THE NBM ENSEMBLE TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER WITH
THIS TREND IS A DISTINCTIVE INCREASE IN THE ENSEMBLE SPREAD, SO
WE WILL MORE THAN LIKELY SEE A COOLING TREND, BUT THE EXTENT OF
THE COOLING TREND IS UNCERTAIN. ALL SITES ARE SHOWING A 10-15
DEGREE SPREAD IN THE NBM ENSEMBLE TEMPERATURES BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. A CLUSTER ANALYSIS INDICATES AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
EITHER OVER THE FAR EASTERN PACIFIC OR JUST COMING ONTO THE
WESTERN U.S WEST COAST. OVER OUR NECK OF THE WOODS AT THIS TIME
WE WOULD PROBABLY BE DEALING WITH LOW PREDICTABLE TRANSIENT
WAVES IN NORTHWEST FLOW, OR LEADING LOW PREDICTABLE WAVES IN
A DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW.
THE NBM PROBABILITY OF A 24 HOUR SNOW TOTAL OF AT LEAST A TENTH
OF AN INCH OF SNOW IS MEDIUM TO HIGH FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA (EXCEPT THE FAR SOUTH) FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WHEN
YOU START LOOKING AT MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOW TOTALS, THE
PROBABILITIES DROP QUITE A BIT. AT THIS TIME THE NBM IS
DEPICTING A LOW (SOUTH) TO MEDIUM (NORTH) CHANCE OF A 48 HOUR
SNOW TOTAL OF 2 OR MORE INCHES IN THE TUESDAY-THURSDAY
TIMEFRAME. WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THIS AS WE GET CLOSER TO NEXT
WEEK. UNTIL THEN, IT LOOKS TO BE A QUIET AND MILD PERIOD THROUGH
THE REST OF THIS WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1154 AM CST TUE FEB 10 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE 18Z TAF
PERIOD.
GENERALLY A LIGHT WESTERLY TO SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW IS
EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL ND THROUGH THE 18Z TAF
PERIOD AS A WARM FRONT PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
CURRENTLY, SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS AROUND 7KFT OVER WESTERN
ND. THIS CLOUD COVER PUSHES EAST TODAY AND MAY REACH EASTERN
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ND THIS EVENING. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS
OF SOME LOWER STRATUS/FOG AROUND THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS AREA LATER
THIS EVENING AND INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. GIVEN THE WEAK SURFACE
FLOW, IT'S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION SOME PATCHY FOG COULD
DEVELOP AROUND KMOT AND KJMS LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING, BUT TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME TO INCLUDE A
MENTION OF FOG AT THESE TAF SITES.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...TWH
AVIATION...TWH
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