402
FXUS63 KBIS 110259
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
859 PM CST TUE FEB 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE AROUND THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS AREA LATER
THIS EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORED FOR MOST AREAS THIS WEEK, WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
30S AND 40S.
- TEMPERATURES MAY TREND COOLER NEXT WEEK WITH A MORE ACTIVE
WEATHER PATTERN.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 859 PM CST TUE FEB 10 2026
THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. CURRENT CONDITIONS AND TRENDS
HAVE BEEN BLENDED IN FOR THIS UPDATE.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 543 PM CST TUE FEB 10 2026
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE NEEDED WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE.
THE MAIN ADJUSTMENT WAS TO BETTER ALIGN THE SKY COVER FORECAST
WITH OBSERVED TRENDS. ALSO REFINED THE PATCHY FOG FORECAST IN
NORTHEAST PARTS OF OUR FORECAST AREA BASED ON LATEST AVAILABLE
VISIBILITY GUIDANCE. THERE HAVE BEEN SOME HINTS IN CAMS THAT
LIGHT PRECIPITATION (LIKELY A FREEZING RAIN/SNOW MIX) COULD
DEVELOP WITH THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS MOVING ACROSS
THE NORTH LATER THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT, BUT THIS IS
GENERALLY NOT SUPPORTED BY MODEL SOUNDINGS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1247 PM CST TUE FEB 10 2026
WE ARE EXPECTING A QUIET WEATHER PATTERN TO CONTINUE THROUGH
MUCH OF THIS WEEK. CURRENTLY, A STATIONARY BOUNDARY WAS SITUATED
FROM NORTH CENTRAL INTO SOUTHEAST ND WITH A NORTHWEST SURFACE
FLOW EAST OF THIS BOUNDARY. SOUTHWEST SURFACE FLOW WAS INDICATED
OVER WESTERN ND. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL WORK IT'S WAY EAST AS
THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY PUSHES EAST AS A WARM FRONT.
EARLY IN THE PERIOD, THERE IS SOME MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION
CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT OVER SOUTHWEST ND, AND
SOME LOWER LEVEL CLOUDINESS OVER FAR NORTHEAST MONTANA AND INTO
FAR NORTHWEST ND. LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES EAST INTO EASTERN
ND TONIGHT. THERE MAY BE SOME LOWER LEVEL STRATUS/FOG AROUND
THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS LATER TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE
RAP AND HRRR ARE BOTH INDICATING SOME LOW STRATUS/FOG HERE LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. WILL SEE HOW TRENDS CONTINUE
BUT FOR NOW WILL ADD SOME PATCHY FOG AROUND THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THE LOW STRATUS, IF IT PANS OUT, MAY KEEP A LID ON TEMPERATURES
OVER THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS AREA WEDNESDAY. ELSEWHERE TEMPERATURES
IN THE 40S LOOK REASONABLE, WITH SOME LOWER 50S POSSIBLE IN THE
SOUTHWEST.
THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND LOOKS QUIET WITH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES (NORMALS RANGE FROM AROUND 20 DEGREES
IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 30 DEGREES IN THE SOUTHWEST)
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE MAIN WESTERLIES REMAIN WELL TO THE
NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA, KEEPING A WEAK SURFACE
PRESSURE PATTERN IN PLACE WITH A COUPLE OF WEAK IMPULSES
TRAVERSING THE CWA. CURRENTLY THE NBM IS NOT DEPICTING ANY QPF
WITH THESE WEAK WAVES. CAN'T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SPRINKLE OF
FLURRY BUT SEE NO REASON TO DEVIATE FROM THE DRY FORECAST AT
THIS TIME.
AS WE GET INTO THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND MORESO INTO
THE EARLY TO MID PORTION OF NEXT WEEK, THERE IS A DEFINITE
DOWNWARD TREND IN THE NBM ENSEMBLE TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER WITH
THIS TREND IS A DISTINCTIVE INCREASE IN THE ENSEMBLE SPREAD, SO
WE WILL MORE THAN LIKELY SEE A COOLING TREND, BUT THE EXTENT OF
THE COOLING TREND IS UNCERTAIN. ALL SITES ARE SHOWING A 10-15
DEGREE SPREAD IN THE NBM ENSEMBLE TEMPERATURES BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. A CLUSTER ANALYSIS INDICATES AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
EITHER OVER THE FAR EASTERN PACIFIC OR JUST COMING ONTO THE
WESTERN U.S WEST COAST. OVER OUR NECK OF THE WOODS AT THIS TIME
WE WOULD PROBABLY BE DEALING WITH LOW PREDICTABLE TRANSIENT
WAVES IN NORTHWEST FLOW, OR LEADING LOW PREDICTABLE WAVES IN
A DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW.
THE NBM PROBABILITY OF A 24 HOUR SNOW TOTAL OF AT LEAST A TENTH
OF AN INCH OF SNOW IS MEDIUM TO HIGH FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA (EXCEPT THE FAR SOUTH) FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WHEN
YOU START LOOKING AT MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOW TOTALS, THE
PROBABILITIES DROP QUITE A BIT. AT THIS TIME THE NBM IS
DEPICTING A LOW (SOUTH) TO MEDIUM (NORTH) CHANCE OF A 48 HOUR
SNOW TOTAL OF 2 OR MORE INCHES IN THE TUESDAY-THURSDAY
TIMEFRAME. WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THIS AS WE GET CLOSER TO NEXT
WEEK. UNTIL THEN, IT LOOKS TO BE A QUIET AND MILD PERIOD THROUGH
THE REST OF THIS WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 859 PM CST TUE FEB 10 2026
LOW CEILINGS AND FOG ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL
AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA LATER THIS EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING. CATEGORICAL RESTRICTIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AT KMOT OR
KJMS AT THIS TIME. VFR CONDITIONS ARE OTHERWISE EXPECTED ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD,
ALONG WITH LIGHT SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH WINDS.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...HOLLAN
DISCUSSION...TWH
AVIATION...HOLLAN
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