357
FXUS63 KBIS 111218
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
618 AM CST WED FEB 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE AROUND THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS AREA THIS
MORNING.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORED FOR MOST AREAS THIS WEEK, WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S.
- TEMPERATURES MAY TREND COOLER NEXT WEEK WITH A MORE ACTIVE
WEATHER PATTERN.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 618 AM CST WED FEB 11 2026
QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING,
WITH DENSE FOG IN NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA STAYING EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA BOUNDARY. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THERE WAS
SOME VERY SHALLOW GROUND FOG IN SCATTERED PLACES ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA, WITH THE KBIS 12 UTC RAOB SHOWING AN EXTREMELY
SHALLOW SATURATED LAYER, MATCHING WITH AIR TEMPERATURES VERY
CLOSE TO DEW POINTS AND LIGHT WINDS. GOING FORECAST LOOKS GOOD
WITH THIS UPDATE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 340 AM CST WED FEB 11 2026
THIS MORNING, BROAD TROUGHING EXISTED OFF THE WESTERN CONUS
COAST, WITH QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE COUNTRY. A
SHALLOW NORTHERN STREAM WAVE WAS PROGRESSING THROUGH THE
SOUTHWESTERN CANADIAN PRAIRIES, WITH SECONDARY WEAK TROUGHING
OVER THE NORTHEAST LEADING TO NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE DAKOTAS.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS ANALYZED NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA, WITH A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA, DEMARKED BY A MODEST SWATCH OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS SEEN ON
NIGHTTIME SATELLITE IMAGERY. WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR FOG
DEVELOPMENT IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS AND SURROUNDING AREA, WITH
REDUCED VISIBILITIES BEING REPORTED IN NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA,
BUT SO FAR AUTOMATED SENSORS AND NDDOT WEBCAMS DO NOT REVEAL
ANYTHING IN OUR AREA. THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA HAS CLEAR
SKIES AND GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS THIS MORNING, WITH
LOWS IN THE 20S.
SEASONABLY MILD AND BENIGN WEATHER CONTINUES TODAY THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WEEK AS THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN STAYS RELATIVELY
CONSISTENT, WITH A SOMEWHAT DIFFUSE SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN.
HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S, WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS AREA, ESPECIALLY IF LOW CLOUD
COVER PERSISTS IN THIS AREA LIKE RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE
INDICATING. HIGH-RES GUIDANCE WANTS TO KEEP LOW CLOUDS AND
POTENTIALLY FOG ACROSS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING, WHICH COULD BLEED INTO THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS TO
JAMES RIVER VALLEY CORRIDOR WITH HOW MUCH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS
AROUND.
NBM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILES ONLY HAVE AROUND A 5 DEGREE SPREAD
FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY, INDICATING STRONG
ENSEMBLE AGREEMENT IN THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST. ASIDE FROM THE
FAR NORTH CENTRAL, EXPECT HIGHS PEAKING IN THE LOWER 40S TO
LOWER 50S ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. PERCENTILE SPREAD BEGINS TO
INCREASE NEXT WEEK BUT FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY, STILL GOOD
CONFIDENCE IN THESE MILD TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE. WE CONTINUE
TO CARRY A DRY FORECAST, ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT A LOW IMPACT
SHORTWAVE BRINGING SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA AT ONE
POINT OR ANOTHER.
WE FINALLY START TO SEE SOME MORE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES COMING THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. CLUSTER ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO BE CONSISTENT
ON TROUGHING DEVELOPING SOMEWHERE OFF THE WEST COAST / ACROSS
THE WESTERN CONUS, WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN RESPONSE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS, A FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR MORE ACTIVE
WEATHER. GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE TILTING TOWARDS A DEEPER AND
MORE POTENT TROUGH BUT THE OVERALL OUTCOME AT THIS JUNCTURE
REMAINS THE SAME, THAT TEMPERATURES WILL COOL OFF AND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES, INCLUDING CHANCES FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW,
WILL INCREASE. THE LATEST BLENDED GUIDANCE PRODUCES A BROAD 25 TO
50 PERCENT CHANCE FOR AT LEAST TWO INCHES OF SNOW OVER 48 HOURS
MID NEXT WEEK, AND EVEN THESE LOWER SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WOULD
BRING A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE FROM THE WEATHER WE'VE BEEN HAVING
THE FIRST HALF OF FEBRUARY.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 618 AM CST WED FEB 11 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
THERE IS A VERY LOW CHANCE OF CATEGORICAL FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS
AT KJMS THIS MORNING FROM FOG AND LOW CEILINGS, ALTHOUGH TOO LOW
OF CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF WITH THIS
UPDATE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...JONES
DISCUSSION...JONES
AVIATION...JONES
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