251
FXUS63 KBIS 112043
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
243 PM CST WED FEB 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA LATE TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORED FOR MOST AREAS THIS WEEK, WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S.
- TEMPERATURES MAY TREND COOLER NEXT WEEK WITH A MORE ACTIVE
WEATHER PATTERN.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 109 PM CST WED FEB 11 2026
A QUIET WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA.
CURRENTLY, SKIES WERE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WAS SOME LOW STRATUS
LINGERING AROUND THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS. WE REMAIN WITHIN A WEAK
SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A BROAD
NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO CANADA, AND
WELL SOUTH OF SOUTHERN JET STREAM.
IN THE NEAR TERM THE LACK OF A SIGNIFICANT SURFACE GRADIENT MAY
ONCE AGAIN LEAD TO PATCHY FOG OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. TODAY,
LOW STRATUS AND FOG WAS MOSTLY CONFINED TO EASTERN ND, EAST OF A
SLOW MOVING WARM FRONT. THE FRONT BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY
TROUGH THAT LINGERS OVER CENTRAL/EASTERN ND INTO THURSDAY. GIVEN
OUR LIGHT SURFACE FLOW, CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND
RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE, WE CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME PATCHY
SHALLOW FOG PRETTY MUCH ANYWHERE IN THE FORECAST AREA. SHORT
TERM MODEL GUIDANCE IS HIGHLIGHTING MOSTLY CENTRAL AND INTO
EASTERN ND. WILL ADD A MENTION OF PATCHY FOG AGAIN TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING.
WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH THE WORK WEEK AND
INTO THE WEEKEND. HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 40S AND LOWER 50S,
EXCEPT SOME 30S REMAINING OVER THE FAR NORTH CENTRAL INTO
NORTHEAST ND. MORNING LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE UPPER TEENS TO
UPPER 20S. NBM ENSEMBLE MAXT SPREADS REMAIN LOW THROUGH
SATURDAY, LEADING TO A MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST
HIGH TEMPERATURES DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. SPREADS DO BEGIN TO
INCREASE SUNDAY AND INTO NEXT WEEK. BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
WE SEE NBM ENSEMBLE MAXT SPREADS INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 DEGREES
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN A DOWNWARD
TREND IN TEMPERATURES REMAINS MEDIUM TO HIGH, BUT CONFIDENCE IN
THE EXTENT OF THE COOLDOWN REMAINS LOW.
WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED COOLDOWN WE WILL SEE A PATTERN SHIFT
TOWARDS A MORE FAVORABLE STORM TRACK TO BRING PRECIPITATION
MAKERS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. CLUSTER ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO
FAVOR A WESTERN U.S. UPPER TROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT WITH A
LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN HOW THE TROUGH DEVELOPS HEADING INTO THE
MIDDLE AND LATTER PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK. CURRENTLY OUR BLENDED
GUIDANCE IS STILL DEPICTING A BROAD 25 TO 50 PERCENT
PROBABILITY OF 2 OR MORE INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL ND OVER A 48 HOUR PERIOD MID NEXT WEEK. UNTIL THEN,
ENJOY THE MILD AND DRY CONDITIONS THAT ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1140 AM CST WED FEB 11 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING
AT ALL TAF SITES. LATER TONIGHT, MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT, THERE IS
A CHANCE OF FOG AGAIN OVER EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THERE ARE SOME
INDICATIONS THAT THE FOG MAY EXTEND BACK WEST INTO CENTRAL ND.
GIVEN THE LIGHT SURFACE FLOW CAN SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
PATCHY SHALLOW FOG PRETTY MUCH ANYWHERE LATE TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. FOR NOW WILL ONLY MENTION SOME SHALLOW FOG AT
KJMS BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. WINDS GENERALLY SOUTH TO
WEST AROUND 6 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...TWH
AVIATION...TWH
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