702
FXUS63 KBIS 120617
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1217 AM CST THU FEB 12 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- FOG COULD DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING.
- WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE FAVORED
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH DAILY HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 30S
NORTHEAST TO LOWER 50S SOUTHWEST.
- COOLING TREND EXPECTED NEXT WEEK, BUT STILL NEAR TO ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FAVORED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. A
MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS ALSO FAVORED FOR NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1217 AM CST THU FEB 12 2026
ROLLA ASOS STATION HAS BEGUN TO REPORT SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER
VISIBILITIES IN THE LAST HALF HOUR OR SO, WITH NIGHTTIME
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING LOW CLOUD COVER ACROSS MUCH OF ROLETTE
COUNTY. HIGH-RES GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FAVOR THE SMALL AREA
AROUND THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS FOR FOG AND LOW VISIBILITIES, SO
WILL KEEP AN EYE ON HOW DENSE AND WIDESPREAD FOG GETS IN THIS
AREA. ONLY CHANGE WITH THIS UPDATE WAS TO SLIGHTLY ADJUST
COVERAGE OF FOG IN THE GRIDDED FORECAST.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 948 PM CST WED FEB 11 2026
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LOW CLOUDS/FOG BEGINNING TO PUSH UP
AGAINST THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS IN FAR EASTERN ROLETTE COUNTY.
RECENT MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOT AS AGGRESSIVE WITH FOG AS EARLIER,
BUT STILL SHOWS HIGH PROBABILITIES FOR VISIBILITY LESS THAN HALF
A MILE SURROUNDING THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS ON ALL SIDES WITHIN THE
STATE. WITH NO EVIDENT FORECAST CHANGE IN CONDITIONS THAT
PROMOTE FOG, LITTLE WAS CHANGED THERE FOR THIS UPDATE. WE DID
LOWER THE COVERAGE OF FOG IN THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY WHERE MID
TO HIGH CLOUDS COULD LINGER A LITTLE LONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY
ANTICIPATED.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 555 PM CST WED FEB 11 2026
NO MAJOR FORECAST CHANGES ARE NEEDED FOR THIS UPDATE. DESPITE
MID TO HIGH CLOUDS PASSING THROUGH THIS EVENING, FOG POTENTIAL
LOOKS MUCH BETTER FOR TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY FROM THE TURTLE
MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. CAN ALREADY SEE AN
AREA OF VERY LOW CLOUDS OVER NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY, SLOWLY EXPANDING WESTWARD.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 109 PM CST WED FEB 11 2026
A QUIET WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA.
CURRENTLY, SKIES WERE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WAS SOME LOW STRATUS
LINGERING AROUND THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS. WE REMAIN WITHIN A WEAK
SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A BROAD
NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO CANADA, AND
WELL SOUTH OF SOUTHERN JET STREAM.
IN THE NEAR TERM THE LACK OF A SIGNIFICANT SURFACE GRADIENT MAY
ONCE AGAIN LEAD TO PATCHY FOG OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. TODAY,
LOW STRATUS AND FOG WAS MOSTLY CONFINED TO EASTERN ND, EAST OF A
SLOW MOVING WARM FRONT. THE FRONT BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY
TROUGH THAT LINGERS OVER CENTRAL/EASTERN ND INTO THURSDAY. GIVEN
OUR LIGHT SURFACE FLOW, CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND
RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE, WE CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME PATCHY
SHALLOW FOG PRETTY MUCH ANYWHERE IN THE FORECAST AREA. SHORT
TERM MODEL GUIDANCE IS HIGHLIGHTING MOSTLY CENTRAL AND INTO
EASTERN ND. WILL ADD A MENTION OF PATCHY FOG AGAIN TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING.
WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH THE WORK WEEK AND
INTO THE WEEKEND. HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 40S AND LOWER 50S,
EXCEPT SOME 30S REMAINING OVER THE FAR NORTH CENTRAL INTO
NORTHEAST ND. MORNING LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE UPPER TEENS TO
UPPER 20S. NBM ENSEMBLE MAXT SPREADS REMAIN LOW THROUGH
SATURDAY, LEADING TO A MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST
HIGH TEMPERATURES DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. SPREADS DO BEGIN TO
INCREASE SUNDAY AND INTO NEXT WEEK. BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
WE SEE NBM ENSEMBLE MAXT SPREADS INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 DEGREES
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN A DOWNWARD
TREND IN TEMPERATURES REMAINS MEDIUM TO HIGH, BUT CONFIDENCE IN
THE EXTENT OF THE COOLDOWN REMAINS LOW.
WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED COOLDOWN WE WILL SEE A PATTERN SHIFT
TOWARDS A MORE FAVORABLE STORM TRACK TO BRING PRECIPITATION
MAKERS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. CLUSTER ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO
FAVOR A WESTERN U.S. UPPER TROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT WITH A
LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN HOW THE TROUGH DEVELOPS HEADING INTO THE
MIDDLE AND LATTER PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK. CURRENTLY OUR BLENDED
GUIDANCE IS STILL DEPICTING A BROAD 25 TO 50 PERCENT
PROBABILITY OF 2 OR MORE INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL ND OVER A 48 HOUR PERIOD MID NEXT WEEK. UNTIL THEN,
ENJOY THE MILD AND DRY CONDITIONS THAT ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1217 AM CST THU FEB 12 2026
PATCHY FOG COULD DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING, CAUSING LIFR VISIBILITY AND CEILINGS.
THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES FOR FOG ARE TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF KMOT
AND KJMS. CONFIDENCE IN FOG IMPACTING AVIATION AT KJMS HAS LOWERED,
SO WILL HANDLE WITH A TEMPO GROUP FOR THIS TAF CYCLE. ASIDE FROM THE
FOG, VFR CONDITIONS ARE OTHERWISE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD, ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS BECOMING WESTERLY ON THURSDAY.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...JONES
DISCUSSION...TWH
AVIATION...HOLLAN
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