299
FXUS63 KBIS 120931
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
331 AM CST THU FEB 12 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- FOG COULD DEVELOP FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS INTO THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY THIS MORNING.
- WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE FAVORED
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH DAILY HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 30S
NORTHEAST TO LOWER 50S SOUTHWEST.
- COOLING TREND EXPECTED NEXT WEEK, BUT STILL NEAR TO ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FAVORED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. A
MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS ALSO FAVORED FOR NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 331 AM CST THU FEB 12 2026
QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES TODAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
BROADLY CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT PERSISTS, WITH THE NORTHERN PLAINS
IN BETWEEN A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH EXTENDING OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST AND A DOUBLE BARREL HUDSON BAY AREA LOW. AT THE
SURFACE, A WEAK LOW WAS CENTERED IN SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA, WITH
RELATIVELY BENIGN FLOW OVER NORTH DAKOTA, LEADING TO LIGHT
SURFACE WINDS THIS MORNING. LOW STRATUS HAS BEEN PRIMARILY
LIMITED TO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT WHERE
WE ARE SEEING MORE CONSISTENTLY REDUCED VISIBILITY FROM FOG.
THIS FOG HAD EXTENDED INTO THE ROLLA AREA EARLIER IN THE NIGHT,
BUT LATEST OBSERVATIONS SHOW A RETURN TO FULL VISIBILITY, LIKELY
AIDED BY A SHIFT TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS. THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST AREA HAS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES, WITH A LOW CHANCE FOR
ANYTHING BEYOND VERY SHALLOW FOG DEVELOPING IN THESE AREAS.
WE CONTINUE OUR PATTERN OF SEASONABLY MILD AND DRY CONDITIONS ON
THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED NORTHWEST FLOW. THERE IS
STRONG CONFIDENCE AMONG ENSEMBLE MEMBERS OF HIGHS TODAY THROUGH
SATURDAY TO BE MAINLY IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S, WITH SOME MID TO
UPPER 30S IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS AREA. WE ARE CARRYING A DRY
FORECAST, WITH ANY PASSING WAVES ONLY EXPECTED TO BRING SOME
INCREASES IN CLOUD COVER.
AS WE GET INTO NEXT WEEK, THE FIRST FEW DAYS STILL LOOK QUIET
FOR NOW, BUT NBM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILES SHOW THE START OF A
STEADY COOLING TREND THROUGH NEXT WEEK. ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
CONTINUE TO SHOW TROUGHING DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS,
WITH FLOW ACROSS THE DAKOTAS TURNING SOUTHWESTERLY, A FAVORED
MORE ACTIVE PATTERN FOR OUR REGION. BY THE TIME WE GET TO
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, BLENDED POPS RANGE FROM 40 TO 65
PERCENT ACROSS THE STATE, ALTHOUGH WITH TEMPERATURES STILL NEAR
TO ABOVE FREEZING (ESPECIALLY SOUTH), THERE IS A MODERATE CHANCE
FOR PRECIPITATION TO BE PRIMARILY RAIN DURING DAYTIME HOURS.
THERE IS ONE SMALL MINORITY CLUSTER OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS (10
PERCENT) THAT WANTS TO BUILD IN SHALLOW RIDGING VS THE DOMINANT
SOUTHWEST FLOW SOLUTION, BUT EVEN THIS SCENARIO STILL BRINGS
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO THE STATE. LATEST NBM PROBABILITIES
ARE LOW TO MEDIUM FOR AT LEAST 0.25 INCHES OF QPF OVER 48 HOURS,
WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF AT LEAST 2 INCHES OF SNOW OVER THE SAME
PERIOD RANGING FROM 30 PERCENT SOUTHWEST TO AROUND 70 PERCENT IN
THE NORTH CENTRAL, WHERE COOLER TEMPERATURES WOULD FAVOR SNOW AS
THE DOMINANT P-TYPE. NBM TEMPERATURE SPREADS ARE PRETTY LARGE BY
LATE NEXT WEEK, BUT A RETURN TO NEAR IF NOT SLIGHTLY BELOW
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES IS FAVORED, WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES
CONTINUING INTO THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1217 AM CST THU FEB 12 2026
PATCHY FOG COULD DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING, CAUSING LIFR VISIBILITY AND CEILINGS.
THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES FOR FOG ARE TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF KMOT
AND KJMS. CONFIDENCE IN FOG IMPACTING AVIATION AT KJMS HAS LOWERED,
SO WILL HANDLE WITH A TEMPO GROUP FOR THIS TAF CYCLE. ASIDE FROM THE
FOG, VFR CONDITIONS ARE OTHERWISE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD, ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS BECOMING WESTERLY ON THURSDAY.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...JONES
AVIATION...HOLLAN
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page