107
FXUS63 KBIS 191833
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1233 PM CST THU FEB 19 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW (WITH LITTLE OR NO
ACCUMULATION) OVER CENTRAL AND INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA
TODAY INTO TONIGHT. DRY FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- PATCHY BLOWING SNOW IS EXPECTED TODAY.
- TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- TEMPERATURES MODERATE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HIT AND MISS
LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1233 PM CST THU FEB 19 2026
IT'S A BRISK FEBRUARY AFTERNOON WITH EARLY AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES STILL NEAR TO BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE NORTH, WITH A
NORTHWEST BREEZE KEEPING APPARENT TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS TO
20S BELOW ZERO. SOME AUTOMATED SITES NORTH AND EAST ARE STILL
REPORTING REDUCED VISIBILITY FROM PATCHY BLOWING SNOW, AND WOULD
EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY UNTIL WINDS
DIMINISH A BIT MORE TONIGHT. LOW CLOUDS HAVE NOT EXPANDED AS FAR
INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AS EXPECTED SO DID TWEAK POPS WITH
THIS UPDATE, OTHERWISE GOING FORECAST LOOKS GOOD FOR THE
AFTERNOON.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1017 AM CST THU FEB 19 2026
NO MAJOR CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE. A STOUT NORTHWEST BREEZE IS
CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING, WITH SOME PATCHY BLOWING
SNOW EVIDENT THROUGH BOTH NDDOT CAMERAS AND ASOS STATIONS
REPORTING REDUCED VISIBILITY, MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH AND THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY. WE HAVE A DECENT STRETCH OF CLEARING SKIES
ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA, ALTHOUGH SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS
PLENTY OF UPSTREAM CLOUDS MOVING UP FROM SOUTH DAKOTA. IT'S
STILL QUITE CHILLY FOR MID-MORNING, WITH CURRENT TEMPERATURES
AT OR BELOW ZERO ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN PARTS OF THE STATE.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 628 AM CST THU FEB 19 2026
ONLY SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER AND POPS. LOWERED SKY
COVER THIS MORNING OVER THE SOUTHWEST. THIS AFTERNOON, PULLED
POPS OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ND BACK WEST A BIT AND
ADDED SOME ISOLATED FLURRIES ON THE WESTERN FRINGES OF THE
PRECIP FIELD. OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE GOING
FORECAST.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 212 AM CST THU FEB 19 2026
A BLOCKING UPPER RIDGE TO OUR EAST WILL KEEP THE REMNANTS OF OUR
EXITING STORM SYSTEM LINGERING OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
STATE TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD OVER THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY AND REMAIN THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
THE IMPACTS FROM THE LINGERING SYSTEM ARE EXPECTED TO BE
MINIMAL. LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES WILL REMAIN OVER CENTRAL ND WITH
LIGHT SNOW CHANCES MOSTLY FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS AREA INTO
THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. ACCUMULATIONS OF A HALF INCH OR SO WILL
BE POSSIBLE TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. AS YOU HEAD WEST TOWARDS THE
HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR, THE NEAR SURFACE SATURATED LAYER IS PRETTY
SHALLOW SO WE EXPECT MAINLY FLURRIES HERE, IF ANYTHING, WITH NO
ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED. WE WILL SEE BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS
CONTINUE TODAY WITH PATCHY BLOWING SNOW. HOWEVER WIDESPREAD
REDUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE
THIS AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY WEST.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA FRIDAY AND REMAINS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING OVER
CENTRAL ND AND ANOTHER RIPPLE MOVING INTO THE WEST, WE CAN NOT
RULE OUT A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES ON FRIDAY AS WELL. NBM
POPS ARE DRY FRIDAY AND UNCERTAINTY IS CURRENTLY TOO HIGH TO
INCLUDE ANY POPS AT THIS TIME.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND, ALTHOUGH
THE FAR SOUTHWEST MAY END UP BEING NEAR NORMAL. MOST WILL SEE
HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
LOWS RANGING FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO NORTH TO ABOVE
ZERO SOUTH. LATER IN THE WEEKEND LOW OF 10 TO 15 BELOW MAY BE
POSSIBLE IN THE NORTH. EVERY NIGHT FROM TONIGHT, THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WE WILL BE FLIRTING WITH COLD WEATHER ADVISORY WIND
CHILLS AROUND 30 BELOW ACROSS THE NORTH. BUT AT THIS TIME THE
AREAL EXTENT IS NOT THAT GREAT. IF WE DO END UP WITH AN ADVISORY
IT WOULD LIKELY BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHWAY 2 CORRIDOR AND
NORTH.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING PUSHES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY NEXT
WEEK BRINGING AT LEAST A TEMPORARY WARM-UP. WE DO TRANSITION TO
A NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN BRINGING OCCASIONAL HIT AN MISS
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WITH CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEMS, AND THE USUAL
WARMER TEMPERATURES AHEAD AND COLDER TEMPERATURES BEHIND EACH
SYSTEM. NBM ENSEMBLE TEMPERATURE SPREADS ARE PRETTY HIGH THROUGH
NEXT WEEK SO CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING/PLACEMENT OF ANY CLIPPER
SYSTEM AND THE ASSOCIATED TEMPERATURES SWINGS REMAINS LOW AT
THIS TIME.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1233 PM CST THU FEB 19 2026
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TO START THE TAF PERIOD, WITH SOME MVFR TO
IFR CEILINGS OVER THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY, INCLUDING KJMS. BREEZY
NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, AND BLOWING
SNOW COULD REDUCE VISIBILITY, MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN
NORTH DAKOTA. THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HAS DECREASED SOME AS THESE LOWER CEILINGS
ARE NOT EXTENDING AS FAR INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AS PREVIOUSLY
EXPECTED. HOWEVER, MVFR TO POTENTIALLY IFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED
TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD TONIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING,
ALTHOUGH NOT TOO HIGH OF CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND HOW FAR THIS
CLOUD DECK WILL EXTEND. THE MOST LIKELY TERMINAL TO REMAIN VFR
IS KDIK. WINDS WILL STAY NORTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE NIGHT,
DIMINISHING SOME BUT STAYING BREEZY IN THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY
THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...JONES
DISCUSSION...TWH
AVIATION...JONES
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