337
FXUS63 KBIS 192044
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
244 PM CST THU FEB 19 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LOW CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS THROUGH
THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT, AND
THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT. DRY FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- PATCHY BLOWING SNOW THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
- TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- TEMPERATURES MODERATE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HIT AND MISS
LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 244 PM CST THU FEB 19 2026
THIS AFTERNOON, LONGWAVE TROUGHING DOMINATED THE SYNOPTIC
PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS, WITH EMBEDDED LOWS ROTATING THROUGH
THE BASE. THIS WAS LEADING TO SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS, WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED IN SOUTHWEST
SASKATCHEWAN. A MODEST PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUED TO PRODUCE
BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS, AND WITH AIR TEMPERATURES IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO, WIND CHILLS HAVE STAYED IN
THE TEENS TO 20S BELOW ZERO THIS AFTERNOON. SOME LOW CLOUDS ARE
LINGERING IN OUR EASTERN TIER OF COUNTIES, ALONG WITH SOME
CIRRUS ACROSS THE NORTH AND CENTRAL, BUT AREAS ALONG, SOUTH, AND
WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER ARE GETTING PLENTY OF SUNSHINE THIS
AFTERNOON.
AS ONE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED EMBEDDED LOWS RETROGRADES BACK TO
THE WEST THIS EVENING, THE EXPECTATION IS FOR CLOUD COVER TO
EXPAND BACK TO THE WEST AND BRING LOW CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW,
MAINLY FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY. ANY ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE LIGHT. ADDITIONALLY, A
SHORTWAVE IS PROJECTED TO MOVE NORTH FROM WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
AND POTENTIALLY CLIP SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA, SO WE DID ADD IN
SOME LOW POPS FOR THIS TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES DROPPED LOWER THAN FORECAST THIS MORNING, WITH
BLENDED GUIDANCE LIKELY NOT ACCOUNTING ENOUGH FOR THE MULTIPLE
INCHES OF FRESH SNOWPACK ACROSS THE AREA. DUE TO THIS AND A
SIMILAR AIR MASS IN PLACE FOR TONIGHT, WE DID NUDGE TONIGHT'S
LOW TEMPERATURES DOWN A FEW DEGREES. BECAUSE OF THE EXPECTED
CLOUD COVER AND NOT PARTICULARLY FAVORABLE SURFACE PRESSURE
PATTERN, WE DID NOT WANT TO DROP TEMPERATURES TOO FAR BELOW THE
DETERMINISTIC NBM, BUT OPTED FOR THE 50TH PERCENTILE. THIS
PRODUCED A CORRIDOR OF AIR TEMPERATURES OF 5 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW
ZERO ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL, AND 5 ABOVE TO
5 BELOW ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS DROPPED
APPARENT TEMPERATURES ENOUGH TO WARRANT A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY
TONIGHT FOR THE NORTHWEST AND PARTS OF THE NORTH CENTRAL,
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF WILLISTON AND MINOT. NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL STAY BREEZY THROUGH THE NIGHT, ESPECIALLY IN THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY, WHICH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE VERY COLD WIND
CHILLS.
SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY, WITH HIGHS GENERALLY
IN THE TEENS AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. WE START TO SEE CHANGES
APPROACHING THIS WEEKEND, AS ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS CONFIDENT ON
UPPER RIDGING BUILDING OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. A MORE NOTABLE
TEMPERATURE SPREAD IS FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND, WITH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST WHILE THE
SOUTHWEST, CLOSER TO THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE, BEGINS TO
MODERATE AND APPROACHES AVERAGE. EACH NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA WILL BE CLOSE TO COLD WEATHER ADVISORY
CRITERIA, BUT WILL HAVE TO TAKE EACH NIGHT AS IT COMES.
AS THE RIDGE BEGINS TO MOVE OVERHEAD, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN A WARMING TREND TO START NEXT WORK WEEK, WITH MORE MILD
TEMPERATURES RETURNING. HOWEVER, BEYOND THIS WE START TO SEE A
SIGNAL IN ENSEMBLE MEMBERS FOR THE RIDGE TO BE FLATTENED AND
RETURN US TO A NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN. THIS WOULD FAVOR MORE
CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH, WITH UP AND DOWN
TEMPERATURES AS THEY IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA, BUT LOW
PREDICTABILITY IN WHEN ANY OF THESE SYSTEMS WOULD MOVE THROUGH
NORTH DAKOTA.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1233 PM CST THU FEB 19 2026
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TO START THE TAF PERIOD, WITH SOME MVFR TO
IFR CEILINGS OVER THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY, INCLUDING KJMS. BREEZY
NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, AND BLOWING
SNOW COULD REDUCE VISIBILITY, MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN
NORTH DAKOTA. THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HAS DECREASED SOME AS THESE LOWER CEILINGS
ARE NOT EXTENDING AS FAR INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AS PREVIOUSLY
EXPECTED. HOWEVER, MVFR TO POTENTIALLY IFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED
TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD TONIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING,
ALTHOUGH NOT TOO HIGH OF CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND HOW FAR THIS
CLOUD DECK WILL EXTEND. THE MOST LIKELY TERMINAL TO REMAIN VFR
IS KDIK. WINDS WILL STAY NORTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE NIGHT,
DIMINISHING SOME BUT STAYING BREEZY IN THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY
THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM CST
FRIDAY FOR NDZ001>003-009>011.
DISCUSSION...JONES
AVIATION...JONES
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