645
FXUS63 KBIS 201623
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1023 AM CST FRI FEB 20 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LOW CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW CENTRAL AND FAR SOUTHWEST THIS
MORNING. MAINLY DRY THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS NORTH THIS MORNING AND POSSIBLY AGAIN
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
- TEMPERATURES MODERATE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HIT AND MISS
LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1019 AM CST FRI FEB 20 2026
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED SLIGHTLY, THUS THE COLD WEATHER
ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED. COLD TEMPERATURE CONTINUE ACROSS THE STATE
AS TEMPERATURES REMAIN 5 DEGREES BELOW ZERO NORTH AND 5 ABOVE
SOUTH. LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD AS HIGH
CLOUDS PASSOVER THE REGION. QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES THUS NO
MAJOR UPDATES WERE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 612 AM CST FRI FEB 20 2026
STRATUS AND LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES REMAIN OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL ND
EARLY THIS MORNING. IN ADDITION, WIND CHILLS ACROSS THE NORTH
REMAIN AROUND 30 TO 35 BELOW. THIS IS HANDLED WELL IN THE
CURRENT FORECAST SO NO UPDATES PLANNED. NO CHANGES TO THE GOING
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST FRI FEB 20 2026
CURRENTLY, A BROAD TROUGH DOMINATES THE UPPER AIR PATTERN OVER
MUCH OF THE U.S. WITH A NUMBER OF CYCLONES MEANDERING THROUGH
THE TROUGH. IN OUR NECK OF THE WOODS, OUR PESKY SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE THE WEATHER OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN ND
THIS MORNING AS IT RETROGRADES NORTHWARD.
THE STRONG SURFACE GRADIENT WINDS HAVE NOW SUBSIDED, ALTHOUGH
IT IS STILL A BIT BREEZY OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ND
THIS MORNING. THE RETROGRADING LOW WILL KEEP MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
AND SMALL CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES OVER CENTRAL ND
THIS MORNING, AND POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER, LITTLE IF ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION AND NO IMPACTS ARE
ANTICIPATED. AS YOU MOVE WEST OF THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR, WE MAY
SEE A LITTLE MORE SUN TODAY, BUT AS YOU GET INTO THE FAR WEST,
ANOTHER WEAK WAVE DROPPING SOUTHEAST IS PRODUCING SOME LIGHT
SNOW/FLURRIES EARLY THIS MORNING OVER FAR SOUTHWEST ND AND A
FEW FLURRIES COULD LINGER THROUGH MID-MORNING. AGAIN, NO
IMPACTS HERE EITHER. IN THE NORTHWEST/NORTH CENTRAL, WHERE SKIES
HAVER REMAINED MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT, TEMPERATURES HAVE
DROPPED DOWN TO AROUND 15 BELOW AND WIND CHILLS CONTINUE TO
HOVER AROUND 30 TO 35 BELOW. A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT THROUGH 10 AM THIS MORNING FOR MUCH OF THE NORTHWEST AND
NORTH CENTRAL. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE ZERO NORTH TO THE LOWER 20S SOUTHWEST.
TONIGHT WILL BE ANOTHER COLD NIGHT, ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH.
LIKE THE PREVIOUS SHIFT WE AGAIN UTILIZED THE NBM50 FOR FORECAST
LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. IT IS NOT AN IDEAL NIGHT AS THE
COLDEST AIR SLIDES A BIT FARTHER EAST. THE WAVE IN FAR WESTERN
ND EARLY THIS MORNING TRACKS EAST TODAY AND THEN ANOTHER WAVE
DROPS SOUTHEAST INTO THE WEST LATER TONIGHT, BUT THERE IS A
BREAK BETWEEN THESE TWO WEAK WAVES WHERE WE COULD SEE CLEAR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE
AREA FROM THE NORTH. THE RECENT SNOW IS THE MAIN REASON FOR
LEANING TOWARDS COLDER OVERNIGHT LOWS, BUT THE NBM50 IS ONLY
MODESTLY COLDER THAN THE STRAIGHT NBM. IT'S POSSIBLE WE COULD
SEE SOME WIND CHILLS AROUND 30 BELOW AGAIN EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING. THE AREAL EXTENT LOOKS SMALLER THAN THIS MORNING AND
WITH THE CURRENT HAZARD ONGOING, WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT TAKE
ANOTHER LOOK.
AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE WEEKEND WE SEE A TRANSITION TO A
NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN AS THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH FINALLY PUSHES
EAST AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING PUSHES INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.
WE DO REMAIN COLD THROUGH THE WEEKEND MOST AREAS, BUT WE ALSO
SEE THE TEMPERATURES CLIMB OVER THE FAR SOUTHWEST. WE CAN'T RULE
OUT A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES AS THE NORTHWEST FLOW
PATTERN BEGINS TO DEVELOP. THE LATEST NBM POPS DO DEPICT A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY AS
THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVE DROPS SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA. THERE'S A
LOT OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME IN THE TRACK OF THIS WAVE, BUT
WOULD EXPECT LITTLE OR NO IMPACTS WITH NO SIGNIFICANT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS.
AFTER ONE LAST COLD MORNING ON MONDAY, WE DO SEE A SIGNIFICANT
INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER, ENSEMBLE
SPREAD REMAINS RATHER HIGH AS WE SEE A BATTLE BETWEEN COLDER
CANADIAN AIR AND MILD PACIFIC AIR AS CLIPPERS CONTINUE TO
TRAVERSE THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITHIN A BROAD NORTHWEST FLOW
PATTERN. THIS WILL RESULT IN UP AND DOWN TEMPERATURES AS
CLIPPERS TRAVERSE THE REGION, BUT A LOW PREDICTABILITY OF
WHETHER ANY OF THESE SYSTEMS WOULD TRACK ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 612 AM CST FRI FEB 20 2026
MVFR CLOUDINESS (NOT CONTINUOUS) WITH ISOLATED LIGHT SNOW OR
FLURRIES REMAINS OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TO BEGIN THE
12Z TAF PERIOD. EXPECT PERIODS OF MVFR CLOUDINESS THROUGH MUCH
OF THE MORNING, BUT THERE WILL BE BREAKS. IN WESTERN ND EXPECT
MAINLY VFR CLOUDS BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT PATCHES OF MVFR CLOUDS,
ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHWEST, INCLUDING KXWA. THERE SHOULD BE
MORE VFR CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON, BUT WE DO EXPECT
SOME AREAS OF MVFR CLOUDS TO RETURN TONIGHT. SURFACE FLOW WILL
BE NORTHWEST TO NORTH THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD GENERALLY 5 TO 15
KNOTS, EXCEPT A LITTLE STRONGER OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ND TODAY, INCLUDING KJMS.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...JOHNSON/TWH
DISCUSSION...TWH
AVIATION...TWH
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