980
FXUS63 KBIS 202016
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
216 PM CST FRI FEB 20 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LOW CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW WEST AND PARTS OF CENTRAL. MAINLY
DRY THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS NORTHWEST AND PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
- TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH PRECIPITATION
CHANCES BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 214 PM CST FRI FEB 20 2026
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT BROUGHT SNOW A FEW DAYS AGO IS
RETROGRADING NORTHWESTWARD INTO MANITOBA. AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE IS CURRENTLY DIGGING ACROSS THE WESTERN HAVE OF THE
STATE ENHANCED BY THE UPPER LOW, THUS HAS LEAD TO LIGHT SNOW AND
FLURRIES ACROSS THE WEST. SNOW FLURRIES ARE FORECAST TO TAPPER
OFF THIS EVENING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER
SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN TONIGHT LEADING TO COLD LOW TEMPERATURES.
IN ADDITION CLEARING SKIES WILL HELP ENHANCE RADIATIONAL
COOLING TONIGHT. THUS TEMPERATURES WERE LOWERED TO THE NBM 50TH.
LIGHT WINDS AND COLD TEMPERATURES WILL LEAD TO AROUND -32 WIND
CHILLS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL
TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING.
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN COOL THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM 5 TO 15 DEGREES WHILE THE
SOUTHWEST COULD WARM INTO THE 20S. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST
TO MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST SATURDAY, BUT THE ENSEMBLES AND
CAMS HAVE LOWER PRECIPITATION CHANCES. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST
TO WARM UP ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE 50S WHILE THE
REMAINDER OF THE STATE WILL SIT IN THE 20 TO 30S. THE PATTERN
WILL SHIFT TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WITH RIDGING OUT WEST. THERE IS
GOING TO BE A BATTLE OF TWO AIRMASS WITH THE COLDER AIRMASS
KEEPING THE NORTHEAST COLD WHILE THE SOUTHWEST WILL REMAIN WARM
DUE TO RIDGING OUT WEST. THE UNCERTAINTY IS WHERE IS THE
GRADIENT FOR THESE TEMPERATURES GOING TO SET UP. DEPENDING ON
WHAT SIDE OF THE GRADIENT YOU ARE ON WILL DETERMINE IF YOU ARE
COLDER OR WARMER. PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE FORECAST TO RETURN
MIDWEEK WITH SOME CHANCES FOR SNOW. A RIDGE WILL LIKELY BE
FAVORED TO BUILD EASTWARD BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK FAVORING
WARMER TEMPERATURES. NBM 25TH IS WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES
FOR NEXT WEEK THUS GIVING US CONFIDENCE ON A WARMING PATTERN.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1223 PM CST FRI FEB 20 2026
SKIES CONTINUE TO CLEAR ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN HALF OF
THE STATE AS LOW STRATUS MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND BREAKS UP.
SITES LIKE KMOT ARE STILL IN MVFR BUT WILL CLEAR LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE STATE AND
BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL SUBSIDE THIS EVENING. SOME SNOW FLURRIES
HAVE BEEN OBSERVED ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST MOVING INTO THE SOUTH
CENTRAL WILL HAVE MINIMAL IMPACTS TO THE REGION.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM CST
SATURDAY FOR NDZ001>003-009>011.
DISCUSSION...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JOHNSON
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