594
FXUS63 KBIS 211604
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1004 AM CST SAT FEB 21 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND THEN
MODERATE FOR THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.
- LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION AT TIMES NEXT
WEEK BUT WITH A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING AND PLACEMENT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1000 AM CST SAT FEB 21 2026
NO MAJOR UPDATES WITH THIS PRODUCT UPDATE/ISSUANCE. WILL ALLOW
THE COLD WEATHER ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED AT 16Z WITH
TEMPERATURES WARMING ABOVE CRITERIA IN MY NORTHWEST.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 550 AM CST SAT FEB 21 2026
FOR THE EARLY MORNING UPDATE WE BUMPED UP WINDS A LITTLE OVER
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA BASED ON
BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS. ALSO MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY
COVER BASED ON LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY. CURRENT WIND CHILLS ARE
RANGING FROM 30 TO 35 BELOW. UPDATED TEXT PRODUCTS WILL BE
TRANSMITTED SHORTLY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 340 AM CST SAT FEB 21 2026
COLD BUT QUIET WEATHER WISE THIS WEEKEND ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE
REMNANTS OF THE EXITING RETROGRADING UPPER LOW LIFTING NORTHWARD
THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL INTO EASTERN ND. MAINLY MID LEVEL
CLOUDINESS HERE, BUT A SCATTERED FLURRY CAN'T BE RULED OUT. BACK
WEST, THERE IS A BATCH OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDINESS FROM NORTHWEST
INTO CENTRAL ND ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK CIRCULATION OVER SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN. ANOTHER WEAK IMPULSE FROM EASTERN MT INTO
SOUTHWEST ND IS PRODUCING SOME ADDITIONAL LOW-MID LEVEL CLOUDS
PUSHING INTO FAR SOUTHWEST ND. AT THE SURFACE, ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
FOR TODAY, EXPECT THE ARCTIC HIGH TO KEEP TEMPERATURES COLD AND
THE WEATHER RATHER TRANQUIL. HOWEVER WITH THE ARCTIC AIR AND
THESE WEAK IMPULSES A PASSING FLURRY OR BRIEF SNOW SHOWER CAN'T
BE RULED OUT. NORTHWEST SURFACE FLOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
DAY. WINDS WILL BE AROUND 5-10 MPH THIS MORNING AND 10-20 MPH
THIS AFTERNOON, THUS WIND CHILLS WILL REMAIN BELOW ZERO THROUGH
THE DAY FOR MOST, AND IN THE 10 TO 20 BELOW ZERO RANGE NORTH
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IS FORECAST TO
EXPIRE AT 10 AM. IT'S POSSIBLE THAT IT MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED
A BIT, BUT BY MIDDAY WE SHOULD BE DONE WITH ADVISORY CRITERIA
WIND CHILLS, AT LEAST FOR THE DAY. WE UTILIZED A BLEND OF NBM
WITH NBM50 ENSEMBLE TEMPERATURES TO TREND TEMPERATURES A LITTLE
LOWER THAN STRAIGHT NBM, WHICH HAS WORKED OUT PRETTY WELL THE
PAST FEW DAYS. FOR TONIGHT, THERE'S SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO
WHETHER WE WILL SEE SOME LOW CLOUDS, WHICH WOULD IMPACT FORECAST
LOW TEMPERATURES. FOR NOW WE ARE STICKING WITH THE GIVEN NBM
GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES, WHICH IS VERY CLOSE TO NBM50, AND
EVEN A LITTLE COLDER IN PORTIONS OF THE WEST. WILL ALSO STICK
WITH THE GIVEN NBM SKY COVER, WHICH CAN BE TOO LOW AT TIMES BUT
AM A LITTLE HESITANT TO BUY INTO SOME OF THE LOW STRATUS
DEPICTED BY THE RAP GIVEN THE CONTINUED NORTHERLY FLOW AND NO
MELTING EXPECTED TODAY. WILL PASS THIS ALONG TO THE DAY SHIFT
AS IT WOULD IMPACT OVERNIGHT LOWS. EVEN WITHOUT THE LOW CLOUDS
THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER COLD WEATHER ADVISORY LOOKS TO BE LOW
TO MEDIUM AT BEST GIVEN CURRENT FORECAST WIND CHILLS, BUT THEY
ARE CLOSE, SO WILL NEED TO MONITOR. HREF PROBABILITIES OF WIND
CHILLS OF 30 BELOW OR LOWER ARE AROUND 20-30 PERCENT. SUNDAY
LOOKS TO BE A REPEAT OF TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING COLD,
WITH ONLY A SLIGHT WARM-UP. THE SOUTHWEST WILL SEE A LITTLE
BETTER WARM-UP THAN THE REST OF US WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE
MID 20S. MOST WILL SEE HIGHS FROM 5 TO 15 ABOVE. WINDS WILL
BEGIN SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST AS THE ARCTIC HIGH PUSHES TO THE
EAST.
AFTER A COLD START TO THE DAY ON MONDAY, A WARM FRONT AND UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING BRINGS A QUICK WARMUP TO THE FORECAST AREA. BEYOND
MONDAY THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN HOW THE REST OF THE WEEK
WILL PLAY OUT. THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT IS QUICKLY
FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT WHICH FLATTENS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
AND TRANSITIONS US BACK INTO A NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW PATTERN, BUT
IT'S A VERY BROAD NORTHWEST FLOW AND THERE IS STILL SOME
INFLUENCE FROM THE UPPER RIDGING TO OUR WEST. NBM ENSEMBLE
TEMPERATURES REMAIN MILD, ESPECIALLY COMPARED TO OUR CURRENT
COLD SNAP. THEN AS WE APPROACH THE WEEKEND THERE IS A DOWNWARD
TREND IN TEMPERATURES BUT WITH VERY HIGH ENSEMBLE SPREAD.
DETERMINISTICALLY THERE IS A SIGNAL FOR A LATE WORK WEEK AND
EARLY WEEKEND COOLDOWN. LOOKING AT THE CLUSTERS CENTERED ON THE
FRIDAY-SATURDAY TIMEFRAME, THERE ARE A COUPLE COLDER SOLUTIONS,
A NEUTRAL AND A MILD SOLUTION WITH A 60/40 SPLIT FAVORING THE
COLDER SOLUTIONS, SO A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS. AS FAR AS
PRECIPITATION, AS HAS BEEN MENTIONED THE PAST FEW DISCUSSION,
WE'RE LOOKING AT MAINLY CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEMS WITH MAINLY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION AND A LOW PREDICTABILITY IN THE TIMING AND
PLACEMENT OF THESE SYSTEMS AS THEY PROPAGATE THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. JUST LOOKING AT THE FIRST SYSTEM IN THE TUE-WED
TIMEFRAME, DETERMINISTICALLY THERE ARE A LOT OF DIFFERENCES AND
THUS OUR CURRENT NBM ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES SHOW A VERY
BROADBRUSH 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF PRECIP THROUGH THE ENTIRE
36 HOUR PERIOD FROM 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY, TOPPING
OUT NEAR 40 PERCENT TUESDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION TYPE SHOULD BE
SNOW NORTH AND EAST WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE SOUTHWEST.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 550 AM CST SAT FEB 21 2026
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL ND
THROUGH THE 12Z TAF PERIOD. HOWEVER CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME LOWER
MVFR CEILINGS AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL ND, INCLUDING KJMS. LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD MVFR
CEILINGS COULD APPROACH KMOT BUT UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH SO NOT
INCLUDED IN THE KMOT TAF ATTIM. NORTHWEST SURFACE FLOW THROUGH
THE 12Z TAF PERIOD, WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS OVER CENTRAL ND TAFS
THIS AFTERNOON UP TO 25 KTS.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...NH
DISCUSSION...TWH
AVIATION...TWH
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