708
FXUS63 KBIS 212016
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
216 PM CST SAT FEB 21 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND, THEN
WILL TREND WARMER NEXT WEEK.
- LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION AT TIMES NEXT
WEEK, WITH HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING, PLACEMENT, AND
AMOUNTS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 210 PM CST SAT FEB 21 2026
CURRENTLY, NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND A BROAD TROUGHING PATTERN OVER
THE EASTERN CONUS. EMBEDDED S/WV TROUGHS/MID LEVEL LOWS CONTINUE
TO ROTATE SOUTHEASTERLY ON THE WESTERN FRINGES OF THE TROUGH AND
AHEAD OF THE UPPER RIDGE, GENERATING AT TIMES LOW/MID LEVEL
CLOUD COVER OVER PARTS OF THE REGION AND MAINTAINING A QUASI-
STATIONARY SFC RIDGE STRETCHING FROM SASKATCHEWAN SOUTHEAST INTO
THE DAKOTAS. THIS FEATURE IN TURN CONTINUES TO GENERATE A STEADY
NORTHWEST BREEZE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 25 MPH AND SUSTAINED WINDS
15-20 MPH.
SURFACE RIDGE SLOWLY NUDGES EAST INTO THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS
TONIGHT, DECREASING WINDS AND TRENDING WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WEST. AS A RESULT, A FEW HIGH RES MODELS COMPUTED PATCHY FOG
OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA, WHICH SEEMED REASONABLE SO ADDED THIS
TO THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT. A FEW HIGH RES MODELS ALSO BRING IN
SOME LOWER CLOUDS FROM EAST TO WEST AFTER 06Z IN THE WAKE OF
ANOTHER MID LEVEL WAVE. SOMETHING WE'LL KEEP AN EYE ON FOR IN
CASE CLOUD COVER NEEDS TO BE INCREASED.
WE MAINTAIN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH SUNDAY, THOUGH WITH
RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING IN THE WAKE OF THE SFC RIDGE OVER THE
WEST. DAYTIMES HIGHS NUDGE UP A FEW DEGREES SOUTHWEST WHERE
RETURN FLOW IS MORE PROLONGED AND WHERE THERE IS A GREATER
CHANCE OF A CLEAR SKY, REMAINING BELOW NORMAL ELSEWHERE WITH THE
COLDER AIRMASS PERSISTING.
FOR NEXT WEEK, THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER RIDGE BUILDS EAST INTO
THE ROCKIES, THEN BROADENS AS IT'S FLATTENED BY MULTIPLE
EMBEDDED WAVES AND A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET. THIS PATTERN CHANGE
WILL BRING A MILDER AIRMASS INTO THE REGION, WITH TEMPERATURES
TRENDING WARMER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. A WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
PATTERN LOOKS TO REMAIN IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK, KEEPING
TEMPERATURES AT OR ABOVE NORMAL ON AVERAGE. WE WILL ALSO HAVE
PERIODIC CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE WEEK, STARTING
MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY AS THE ABOVE MENTIONED WAVES AND UPPER JET
DYNAMICS SPREAD OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1218 PM CST SAT FEB 21 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL ND
THROUGH THE 18Z TAF PERIOD. LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD, HIGH
RES MODELS (PARTICULARLY THE RAP) BRING IN MVFR CEILINGS FROM
EAST TO WEST, AND MAY IMPACT KJMS AND KMOT. DID NOT INCLUDE THIS
AT THIS TIME IN THE KMOT OR KJMS TAF, AS THERE ARE ALSO A
HANDFUL OF MODELS NOT ADVERTISING THE LOW STRATUS. PATCHY FOG
ALSO POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
WESTERN ND. NORTHWEST SURFACE FLOW THROUGH MUCH OF THE 18Z
PERIOD, WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS OVER CENTRAL ND TAFS THIS
AFTERNOON UP TO 25 KTS. WINDS TREND LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVER
WESTERN ND TONIGHT.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...NH
AVIATION...NH
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