813
FXUS63 KBIS 221217
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
617 AM CST SUN FEB 22 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW NORMAL TODAY, THEN TREND WARMER
THROUGH THIS WEEK.
- LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES (20% TO 40%) FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION AT
TIMES THIS WEEK, WITH HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING, PLACEMENT,
AND AMOUNTS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 615 AM CST SUN FEB 22 2026
SKIES REMAIN CLEAR ACROSS MOST OF THE STATE, LITTLE UPDATES
MADE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 200 AM CST SUN FEB 22 2026
CURRENTLY NORTHWEST FLOW IS OVER THE DAKOTAS, WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW OVER WISCONSIN, AND A SLIGHT RIDGE OVER MONTANA. AT
THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE DAKOTAS AND UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION. THERE ARE NO CLOUDS IN THE
DAKOTAS. WITH THAT WARMER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE TO THE
WEST, WIND CHILLS THIS MORNING SHOULD NOT BE TO A DANGEROUS
LEVEL.
TODAY THAT RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER NORTH DAKOTA WHILE IT FLATTENS
OUT. TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY BE SLIGHTLY WARMER TODAY, BUT STILL
BELOW NORMAL. MONDAY THE FLOW STARTS TO TIP BACK TO THE
NORTHWEST AS THAT ZONAL FLOW POPS OUT A WEAK ALBERTA CLIPPER
FROM THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. THIS WILL IMPACT THE STATE BEGINNING
LATE MONDAY EVENING. MONDAY WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER UNDER
THE WARMING ZONAL FLOW. LOOK FOR HIGHS NEAR 50 IN THE SOUTHWEST
TO THE MID 20S IN OUR EAST. THE CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL LIKELY
START AS RAIN WITH THESE TEMPERATURES EARLY MONDAY NIGHT IN THE
NORTH. AS THE NOCTURNAL TEMPERATURES START, THE RAIN WILL TURN
TO SNOW OVERNIGHT, AND SPREAD SOUTH TO SOUTH DAKOTA BY TUESDAY
MORNING. AS OF NOW, THE NBM ONLY HAS CHANCES (30%) FOR THIS
SYSTEM FROM UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING AND LOCATION. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO BE MINIMUM BECAUSE OF THIS IN OUR
FORECAST. IF ANY DOES OCCUR IT WILL BE LESS THAN AN INCH AND IN
THE NORTH AND EAST.
TUESDAY A MUCH STRONGER AND ORGANIZED LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM OFF
THE UNITED STATES SIDE OF THE ROCKIES MOUNTAINS. THIS ONE WILL
IMPACT THE STATE WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND
NORMAL SO MOSTLY SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EAST.
THIS TIME MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR ACROSS ALL OF
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. IN
THE WEST, WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING, IT WILL BE
A RAIN SNOW MIX AS TEMPERATURES ALOFT ARE BELOW FREEZING.
ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO BE SMALL AGAIN AS IT IS A QUICK MOVING
SYSTEM, EXPECT LESS THAN AN INCH. THERE ARE ALSO UNCERTAINTIES
WITH THIS ONE, ALTHOUGH THE NBM SEEMS A LITTLE MORE CONFIDENT
WITH 40 PERCENT CHANCES.
THE REST OF THIS WEEK WILL BE QUIET AND DRY, WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S AND 40S. NEXT WEEKEND COULD GET COOLER
AGAIN AS NORTHWEST FLOW GRAZES COOLER AIR ON THE NORTHERN HALF
OF THE STATE.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 615 AM CST SUN FEB 22 2026
VFR THIS MORNING AND CLEAR SKIES. KJMS WILL HAVE MVFR CIGS
THROUGH THE MORNING HOWEVER. WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY AROUND
10KTS, TURNING SOUTHEAST TONIGHT.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...SMITH
DISCUSSION...SMITH
AVIATION...SMITH
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page