926
FXUS63 KBIS 230552
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1152 PM CST SUN FEB 22 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES WILL TREND WARMER THROUGH THE WORK WEEK, AND ARE
THEN FAVORED TO TREND COOLER NEXT WEEKEND.
- LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES (20% TO 50%) FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION AT
TIMES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK, FOLLOWED BY HIGHER
UNCERTAINTY FOR PRECIPITATION TO END THE WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1148 PM CST SUN FEB 22 2026
THOSE HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE STATE. THE
GOING FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 959 PM CST SUN FEB 22 2026
SOME HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING THROUGH WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA
OVER UPPER RIDGE TO THE WEST WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE EAST
OVERNIGHT. GOING FORECAST HAS THIS REPRESENTED WELL. OTHERWISE,
QUIET WEATHER PREVAILS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 634 PM CST SUN FEB 22 2026
QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES OVER THE AREA WITH ONLY SOME PASSING
CLOUDS, MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE STATE. NO FORECAST
CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 255 PM CST SUN FEB 22 2026
CURRENTLY, NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REMAINS OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE ROCKIES AND
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS THIS
AFTERNOON, RESULTING IN A CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WINDS ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. TEMPERATURES OUTSIDE OF
SOUTHWEST ND (WHERE TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN INTO THE TEENS
THANKS TO RETURN FLOW) REMAIN CHILLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
WHERE A COLD AIRMASS REMAINS.
AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES
AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS FOR MONDAY, THEN BROADENS AS IT'S
FLATTENED BY MULTIPLE EMBEDDED WAVES AND A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
JET MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THIS PATTERN CHANGE COUPLED WITH
SOUTHERLY FLOW/WAA AHEAD OF A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING A
MILDER AIRMASS INTO THE REGION, WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING BY
20-30 DEGREES FOR MONDAY COMPARED TO TODAY. MID LEVEL WAVE AND
UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK WILL PUSH AN ASSOCIATED SFC LOW AND COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE REGION MON NIGHT, RESULTING IN A SWATH OF
LIGHT PRECIPITATION MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST OVER MY NORTHERN AND
EASTERN COUNTIES (MAINLY IN THE FORM OF LIGHT SNOW). MOST IF NOT
ALL PRECIPITATION WILL BE OUT OF OUR AREA FOR TUESDAY, WITH A
TYPICAL BREEZY AND COOLER POST-FRONTAL REGIME IN THE WAKE OF THE
COLD FROPA.
A WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN WILL THEN BE IN PLACE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK, KEEPING TEMPERATURES AT OR ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH FRIDAY. ANOTHER S/WV AND FRONTAL PASSAGE OCCUR TUE
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY, BRINGING ANOTHER DECENT CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. ALL SNOW IS EXPECTED
OUTSIDE OF THE SOUTHWEST, WHERE A RAIN/SNOW MIX IS FORECAST.
AMOUNTS AGAIN LOOK LIGHT (LESS THAN TENTH OF AN INCH), THOUGH
THERE IS PRECIP BANDING POTENTIAL GIVEN MODELS SHOWING SOME DIV
Q/MID LEVEL FRONTOGENSIS LINKAGE LATE TUE NIGHT/EARLY WED.
AFTERWARDS, ENSEMBLES DEPICT A BROAD TROUGHING PATTERN OVER
CANADA INTO THE NORTHERN CONUS, SUGGESTING TEMPERATURES TRENDING
COOLER FOR THE WEEKEND. LARGE SPREAD IN GUIDANCE REGARDING ANY
PRECIPITATION CHANCES, AS THIS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON SMALLER
SCALE FEATURES BEST RESOLVED BY MODELS AS WE PROGRESS IN TIME.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1148 PM CST SUN FEB 22 2026
VFR CIGS AND VIS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE
BREEZY AROUND 25KTS FROM THE SOUTH. WIND SHEAR IS POSSIBLE LATE
IN THE PERIOD. A RAIN SNOW MIX WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN AND
EAST ND STARTING AROUND 03Z.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...SMITH
DISCUSSION...NH
AVIATION...SMITH
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