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FXUS63 KBIS 231200
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
600 AM CST MON FEB 23 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES WILL TREND BACK TO NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK, AND
ARE THEN FAVORED TO TREND COOLER NEXT WEEKEND.
- WINDY WITH LOW TO MEDIUM (20% TO 50%) CHANCES FOR RAIN AND
SNOW TONIGHT, THEN AGAIN WEDNESDAY.
- HIGHER UNCERTAINTIES FOR LIGHT SNOW AND COOLER TEMPERATURES
TO END THE WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 555 AM CST MON FEB 23 2026
LITTLE UPDATES NEEDED THIS MORNING. THE FORECAST REMAINS ON
TRACK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 140 AM CST MON FEB 23 2026
CURRENTLY A FLATTENING RIDGE IS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS
QUASI-ZONAL FLOW HAS KICKED OFF A LOW PRESSURE FROM THE
CANADIAN ROCKIES, AIMED AT NORTH DAKOTA. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE.
TODAY WILL BE MUCH WARMER WITH THAT ZONAL FLOW. LOOK FOR HIGHS
BACK AROUND NORMAL IN THE 20S TO 50 IN THE SOUTHWEST. OF COURSE
IT WOULDN'T BE A WARM DAY IN NORTH DAKOTA WITHOUT BREEZY WINDS.
SOUTH WINDS WILL BE GUSTING AROUND 30MPH TODAY AHEAD OF THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE NIGHT WITH THE POTENTIAL TO GUST NEAR 50MPH WHEN THE COLD
FRONT THEN HITS. CONFIDENCE IS LOWER ON THAT RIGHT NOW SO NO
WIND HEADLINES ARE OUT. WITH THE WARMER TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF
THE LOW, THE PRECIPITATION WILL START AS RAIN/SNOW, MAYBE EVEN
FREEZING RAIN IN THE NORTH AND EAST. THE CONFIDENCE IN FREEZING
RAIN IS LOWER SINCE THIS IS A VERY QUICK MOVING SYSTEM AND THE
FRAM IS INDICATING IT JUST IN THE NORTH. THE TIMING ON THE
PRECIP WILL BE AROUND 9PM TODAY TO 6AM TUESDAY, WITH THE
POSSIBLE FREEZING RAIN STARTING AT MIDNIGHT WHEN THE COLDER
BACKSIDE OF THE LOW MOVES IN AND THE NOCTURNAL TEMPERATURES COOL.
THE PRECIP WILL MOVE FROM THE NORTH TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE NIGHT. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LOW, LESS THAN HALF AN
INCH.
TUESDAY THE WARMER, NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE WITH ZONAL
FLOW IN THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS. A SLIGHT SHORTWAVE WILL KICKOFF
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS THAT WILL
IMPACT THE STATE MOST OF WEDNESDAY. UNLIKE THE LAST ONE, THIS
ONE WILL BE MOSTLY SNOW AS TEMPERATURES IN THE CENTRAL AND EAST
WILL BE BELOW FREEZING. THE ONLY PLACE FOR RAIN IS THE
SOUTHWEST. AROUND HALF AN INCH CAN BE EXCEPTED FOR THIS CLIPPER.
THERE IS NO STRONG PRESSURE BUBBLE OR CAA WITH THIS SYSTEM SO
BREEZY WINDS ARE EXPECTED BUT NOT AS HIGH.
THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL FEATURE NORTHWEST FLOW AND
TEMPERATURES STAYING AROUND NORMAL WITH ON AND OFF SLIGHT (20%)
CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW. THIS COMING WEEKEND, A SURGE OF COLD
AIR IS POSSIBLE AS MODELS HAVE THE NORTHWEST FLOW SLIDING SOUTH.
THE NBM TEMPERATURE SPREADS ARE VERY LARGE SHOWING THE
UNCERTAINTY WITH THAT HAPPENING. CURRENT NBM TEMPERATURES ARE
RANGING FROM ZERO IN THE NORTH TO 20 IN THE SOUTHWEST. FROM
THERE MODELS HEAVILY DISAGREE ON TEMPERATURES, ESPECIALLY AT
THE 850MB LEVEL.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 555 AM CST MON FEB 23 2026
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL GUSTS UP TO 30KTS BY TONIGHT,
FROM THE WEST. A RAIN AND SNOW MIX WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTH
TONIGHT AND LAST THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. AS OF NOW, A PROB30
WAS USED FOR THAT AS CONFIDENCE IS NOT SUPER HIGH. WIND SHEAR IS
ALSO POSSIBLE TONIGHT AT ALL TERMINALS.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...SMITH
DISCUSSION...SMITH
AVIATION...SMITH
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