958
FXUS63 KBIS 232043
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
243 PM CST MON FEB 23 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH FRIDAY,
AND ARE THEN FAVORED TO TREND COOLER NEXT WEEKEND.
- WINDY WITH LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES (20% TO 50%) FOR A WINTRY MIX
OF SNOW, FREEZING RAIN, AND RAIN TONIGHT. ANOTHER CHANCE (30%
TO 60%) FOR MAINLY SNOW (RAIN/SNOW MIX SOUTHWEST) ON
WEDNESDAY.
- HIGHER UNCERTAINTIES FOR PRECIPITATION NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 240 PM CST MON FEB 23 2026
CURRENTLY, QUASI-ZONAL FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH BROAD
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE ROCKIES AND A DEEP UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERLY RETURN FLOW
OVER THE DAKOTAS THIS AFTERNOON, WITH A STEADY SOUTHERLY SFC
WIND (STRONGEST CENTRAL AND EAST). A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN WITH
UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS SOUTHWEST, MID LEVEL CLOUDS NORTH, AND A
CLEAR SKY CURRENTLY SOUTHEAST. MILDER AIRMASS HAS BUILT INTO THE
REGION WITH THE FLOW ALOFT AND WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW/WAA
AHEAD OF A CLIPPER SYSTEM SET TO MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT.
MID LEVEL WAVE/CLIPPER ALONG WITH AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK
WILL PUSH AN ASSOCIATED SFC LOW AND COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION TONIGHT, RESULTING IN A SWATH OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPING SOUTH WITH THE FROPA. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A
WINTRY MIX OF SNOW, FREEZING RAIN, AND ALL RAIN, DEPENDENT ON
SFC TEMPERATURES AND ICE ALOFT. LATEST BUFKIT HAS TRENDED AWAY
FROM THE FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL. REGARDLESS, FORCING ALOFT IS
MINIMAL SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH MOISTURE REACHING THE SURFACE WITH
THIS WAVE/FROPA. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT, ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES MOVING INTO THE
REGION. TUESDAY TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE STEADY OR FALLING
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. WIND HEADLINES ARE POSSIBLE, THOUGH
RIGHT NOW MAGNITUDES LOOK MARGINAL ADVISORY LEVELS WITH BUFKIT
MIXING LAYER ANALYSIS SHOWING UP TO 35 KNOTS AVAILABLE, AND THE
STRONGER WINDS MOST LIKELY OCCURRING RIGHT WITH THE FROPA.
A WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK, KEEPING TEMPERATURES AT OR ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH FRIDAY. ANOTHER S/WV AND FRONTAL PASSAGE OCCUR LATER TUE
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY, BRINGING ANOTHER DECENT CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION TO THE DAKOTAS. ALL SNOW IS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF
THE SOUTHWEST, WHERE A RAIN/SNOW MIX CONTINUES TO BE FORECAST.
STRONGER FORCING WITH THIS WAVE WITH MODELS SHOWING DECENT DIV
Q/LOWER LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS LINKAGE, SO A BIT MORE MOISTURE/QPF
IS EXPECTED UPWARDS TO AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH OR SO. GIVEN
THE BANDING POTENTIAL, LOCALIZED HIGHER PRECIP AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE, AND INDEED THE LATEST CAMS HAVE TRENDING TOWARDS THIS
WITH A FEW OF THE HIGH RES SOLUTIONS SHOWING POCKETS OF 2 INCH
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS.
AFTERWARDS, ENSEMBLES DEPICT A BROAD TROUGHING PATTERN OVER
CANADA INTO THE NORTHERN CONUS, WITH A STEADY WEST/NORTHWEST
FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. MODELS ALSO FAVOR A STRONGER COLD
FROPA FRI-FRI NIGHT, TRENDING TEMPERATURES COLDER AND BELOW
NORMAL FOR THIS COMING WEEKEND. SNOW WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THE
COLD FRONT ALONG AND BEHIND, AND NBM HAS ACCORDINGLY INCREASED
POPS FRI NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. BEYOND THIS WEEKEND, LARGE
SPREAD IN ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE REGARDING ANY PRECIPITATION
CHANCES, ALONG WITH NBM STILL SHOWING A 20-35 DEGREE HIGH
TEMPERATURE SPREAD BETWEEN THE 25TH AND 75TH PERCENTILES.
OVERALL THOUGH WE LOOK TO TREND WARMER, JUST UNCERTAIN TO WHAT
DEGREE.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1251 PM CST MON FEB 23 2026
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE 18Z PERIOD. A
WEATHER DISTURBANCE AND COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BRING A CHANCE
FOR SNOW, FREEZING RAIN, AND RAIN TO WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA TONIGHT, WITH MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE. OPTED TO MAINTAIN
PROB30 GROUPS FOR THE PRECIPITATION. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY
TODAY, AND WILL TRANSITION TO WEST/NORTHWEST TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY ALONG AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH PEAK GUSTS TO
AROUND 35KTS. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AT AROUND 1K FT AGL WILL BE
POSSIBLE AFTER 00Z AND AT TIMES TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...NH
AVIATION...NH
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