417
FXUS63 KBIS 240559
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1159 PM CST MON FEB 23 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR OR ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH FRIDAY
AND THEN ARE FAVORED TO TREND COOLER THIS WEEKEND.
- WINDY WITH LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES (20% TO 50%) FOR A WINTRY MIX
OF SNOW, FREEZING RAIN, AND RAIN TONIGHT. ANOTHER CHANCE (30%
TO 60%) FOR MAINLY SNOW (RAIN/SNOW MIX SOUTHWEST) ON
WEDNESDAY.
- HIGHER UNCERTAINTIES FOR PRECIPITATION NEXT WEEKEND.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1158 PM CST MON FEB 23 2026
LIGHT SNOW IS NOW BEING REPORTED IN NORTHERN MCLEAN COUNTY WITH
THE CURRENT BAND OF PRECIPITATION. UNKNOWN PRECIP WAS ALSO
REPORTED IN HARVEY, WHICH COULD BE FREEZING RAIN. THE POP
FORECAST WAS UPDATED TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST RADAR AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. UPSTREAM IN THE COLD AIR ADVECTION, WINDS
ARE NOT GUSTING AS HIGH AS FORECASTED YET, SO WE WILL KEEP AN
EYE ON THAT.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 904 PM CST MON FEB 23 2026
COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON A RELATIVELY SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
AXIS IS CLOSING IN ON NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA, AND HAS
RECENTLY PASSED THROUGH REGINA, SASKATCHEWAN. COMPRESSIONAL
HEATING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT HAS RESULTED IN ABOUT A 5 TO 6
DEGREE RISE IN TEMPERATURES. FOR EXAMPLE, WEYBURN, SASKATCHEWAN,
(ABOUT HALFWAY BETWEEN CROSBY AND REGINA) HAS RAPIDLY INCREASED
FROM 33 TO 39 DEGREES AS THE FRONT APPROACHES.
SOME RADAR ECHOES EXIST AHEAD OF THE FRONT, BUT MODEL FORECAST
SOUNDINGS MAINTAIN A SIGNIFICANT DRY LAYER NEAR THE SURFACE.
WHILE UPSTREAM CANADIAN OBSERVATIONS REMAIN LIMITED OVERALL,
THOSE THAT ARE REPORTING PRECIPITATION ARE MAINLY IN TRAILING
LOW-LEVEL STRATUS AND MAINLY AS SNOW. ALONG WITH MODEL FORECAST
SOUNDINGS, THIS INDICATES THAT BY THE TIME THE AFOREMENTIONED
DRY LAYER IS ABLE TO SATURATE, MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES ALOFT
BRING NEAR-SURFACE SATURATION DOWN INTO THE DGZ RESULTING IN
MOSTLY SNOW. THUS, IT SEEMS LIKE THE END RESULT IS STARTING TO
FAVOR LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES (PERHAPS MIXED WITH SOME RAIN IN THE
SOUTHWEST) OVER FREEZING RAIN. STILL, WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THINGS
THROUGH THE NIGHT SHOULD THIS PROVE INACCURATE AND IMPACTFUL
FREEZING RAIN MANAGES TO DEVELOP.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 604 PM CST MON FEB 23 2026
CURRENTLY, LIMITED UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS IN CENTRAL ALBERTA AND
SASKATCHEWAN SHOW ONLY SNOW FALLING, THOUGH TEMPERATURES ARE
MUCH COLDER UP THERE AND IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. AS A COLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEGINS ENTERING NORTHWESTERN ND LATER THIS
EVENING AND PASSING THROUGH THE STATE OVERNIGHT, THERE REMAINS
SOME QUESTION IN JUST HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL GET THROUGH A
FAIRLY DRY LAYER AND WHAT THE PRECIPITATION TYPES WILL BE.
OVERALL, ANY PRECIPITATION ACCUMULATIONS, WHETHER IN THE FORM OF
LIQUID OR SNOW, LOOK TO BE LIGHT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 240 PM CST MON FEB 23 2026
CURRENTLY, QUASI-ZONAL FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH BROAD
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE ROCKIES AND A DEEP UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERLY RETURN FLOW
OVER THE DAKOTAS THIS AFTERNOON, WITH A STEADY SOUTHERLY SFC
WIND (STRONGEST CENTRAL AND EAST). A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN WITH
UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS SOUTHWEST, MID LEVEL CLOUDS NORTH, AND A
CLEAR SKY CURRENTLY SOUTHEAST. MILDER AIRMASS HAS BUILT INTO THE
REGION WITH THE FLOW ALOFT AND WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW/WAA
AHEAD OF A CLIPPER SYSTEM SET TO MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT.
MID LEVEL WAVE/CLIPPER ALONG WITH AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK
WILL PUSH AN ASSOCIATED SFC LOW AND COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION TONIGHT, RESULTING IN A SWATH OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPING SOUTH WITH THE FROPA. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A
WINTRY MIX OF SNOW, FREEZING RAIN, AND ALL RAIN, DEPENDENT ON
SFC TEMPERATURES AND ICE ALOFT. LATEST BUFKIT HAS TRENDED AWAY
FROM THE FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL. REGARDLESS, FORCING ALOFT IS
MINIMAL SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH MOISTURE REACHING THE SURFACE WITH
THIS WAVE/FROPA. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT, ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES MOVING INTO THE
REGION. TUESDAY TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE STEADY OR FALLING
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. WIND HEADLINES ARE POSSIBLE, THOUGH
RIGHT NOW MAGNITUDES LOOK MARGINAL ADVISORY LEVELS WITH BUFKIT
MIXING LAYER ANALYSIS SHOWING UP TO 35 KNOTS AVAILABLE, AND THE
STRONGER WINDS MOST LIKELY OCCURRING RIGHT WITH THE FROPA.
A WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK, KEEPING TEMPERATURES AT OR ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH FRIDAY. ANOTHER S/WV AND FRONTAL PASSAGE OCCUR LATER TUE
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY, BRINGING ANOTHER DECENT CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION TO THE DAKOTAS. ALL SNOW IS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF
THE SOUTHWEST, WHERE A RAIN/SNOW MIX CONTINUES TO BE FORECAST.
STRONGER FORCING WITH THIS WAVE WITH MODELS SHOWING DECENT DIV
Q/LOWER LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS LINKAGE, SO A BIT MORE MOISTURE/QPF
IS EXPECTED UPWARDS TO AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH OR SO. GIVEN
THE BANDING POTENTIAL, LOCALIZED HIGHER PRECIP AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE, AND INDEED THE LATEST CAMS HAVE TRENDING TOWARDS THIS
WITH A FEW OF THE HIGH RES SOLUTIONS SHOWING POCKETS OF 2 INCH
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS.
AFTERWARDS, ENSEMBLES DEPICT A BROAD TROUGHING PATTERN OVER
CANADA INTO THE NORTHERN CONUS, WITH A STEADY WEST/NORTHWEST
FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. MODELS ALSO FAVOR A STRONGER COLD
FROPA FRI-FRI NIGHT, TRENDING TEMPERATURES COLDER AND BELOW
NORMAL FOR THIS COMING WEEKEND. SNOW WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THE
COLD FRONT ALONG AND BEHIND, AND NBM HAS ACCORDINGLY INCREASED
POPS FRI NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. BEYOND THIS WEEKEND, LARGE
SPREAD IN ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE REGARDING ANY PRECIPITATION
CHANCES, ALONG WITH NBM STILL SHOWING A 20-35 DEGREE HIGH
TEMPERATURE SPREAD BETWEEN THE 25TH AND 75TH PERCENTILES.
OVERALL THOUGH WE LOOK TO TREND WARMER, JUST UNCERTAIN TO WHAT
DEGREE.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1159 PM CST MON FEB 23 2026
VFR CIGS AND VIS WITH LIGHT SNOW OR FREEZING RAIN TONIGHT. WINDS
WILL BE GUSTY AROUND 30KTS FROM THE WEST EARLY THIS MORNING,
CALMING BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WIND SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT TONIGHT
AS TWO FRONTS MOVE THROUGH THE STATE.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...SMITH
DISCUSSION...NH
AVIATION...SMITH
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