668
FXUS63 KBIS 240800
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
200 AM CST TUE FEB 24 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH FRIDAY,
THEN ARE FAVORED TO TREND COOLER THIS WEEKEND.
- WINDY WITH LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES (20% TO 50%) FOR A WINTRY MIX
OF SNOW AND RAIN THROUGH THIS MORNING. ANOTHER CHANCE (30% TO
60%) FOR MAINLY SNOW (RAIN/SNOW MIX FAR SOUTHWEST) ON
WEDNESDAY.
- HIGHER UNCERTAINTIES FOR PRECIPITATION NEXT WEEKEND, WITH VERY
HIGH UNCERTAINTIES FOR TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 200 AM CST TUE FEB 24 2026
CURRENTLY STRONG ZONAL FLOW IS PRESENT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
WITH A SLIGHT RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. AT THE
SURFACE A WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM IS GRAZING NORTH DAKOTA. A WARM
FRONT IS LAID ACROSS THE STATE NORTH TO SOUTH, IN THE CENTRAL
PART OF THE STATE. A COLD FRONT IS WORKING IT'S WAY OUT OF
NORTHEAST MONTANA INTO NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. WINDS SHOULD
START TO GUST AROUND 30 KNOTS AS THE COLD AIR ADVECTION KICKS IN
WITH THAT COLD FRONT SOMETIME EARLY THIS MORNING. LIGHT SNOW
HAS BEEN ON AND OFF REPORTED, BUT WITH THE WARM FRONT KICKING IN
THOSE REPORTS ARE NOW RAIN. SO FAR, THE ONLY PRECIP MAKING IT
TO THE GROUND IS IN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. MOST OF THE MODEL
SOUNDINGS HAVE A DRY LAYER NEAR THE SURFACE, THIS IS BACKED BY
OBSERVATIONS UNDER THE RADAR ECHOS NOT REPORTING ANYTHING. WE
WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN LOW TO MEDIUM (20 TO 50 PERCENT) POPS
IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS REASON. LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
ARE EXPECTED. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST THROUGH THE
MORNING, AND CHANCES FOR THE RAIN AND SNOW WILL END BEFORE
SUNRISE HERE IN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
THE REST OF TODAY WILL BE AROUND NORMAL FOR HIGHS EVERYWHERE
EXCEPT THE NORTH. WINDS WILL STAY A LITTLE ELEVATED THROUGH THE
DAY BUT SLOWLY DECREASE, ESPECIALLY WHEN THE DIURNAL MIXING
ENDS. WEDNESDAY A WEAK WAVE AND LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE THROUGH
THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE STATE. THIS WILL BRING HIGHER CHANCES
FOR MOSTLY SNOW ACROSS THE WEST AND SOUTH. THE VARY FAR
SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES COULD SEE A RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE WARMER
AIR. MODELS ARE HINTING AT POSSIBLY A BANDED LIGHT SNOW EVENT
WITH ACCUMULATIONS UP TO 1 INCH ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 200.
NBM CHANCES FOR 1 INCH ARE ONLY 30 PERCENT, AND ARE IN THE
SOUTHWEST. TIMING LOOKS TO BE BETWEEN 6AM CT AND 6PM CT
WEDNESDAY, WITH THE SNOW MOVING WEST TO EAST. THE HIGHEST
CHANCES FOR SNOW IS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE WHERE THE
NBM HAS 60 PERCENT CHANCES THROUGH THAT TIME PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES AGAIN WILL BE AROUND NORMAL, SO A SWITCH TO ALL
RAIN IS POSSIBLE IN THE LATE MORNING IN THE SOUTHWEST, AND IN
THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL.
THE REST OF THIS WEEK WILL BE QUIET WEATHER AND NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WITH STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW. THIS WEEKEND LOOKS TO
TO BE COOLER AS THE NORTHWEST FLOW SINKS SOUTH A LITTLE. WITH
THAT ANOTHER BANDED SNOW EVENT COULD OCCUR ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
AND SOUTH CENTRAL FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS ONCE COULD
BE MORE SNOW ACCUMULATION THAN THE PREVIOUS. RIGHT NOW, FORECAST
SNOW TOTALS ARE AROUND 3 INCHES IN THE SOUTHWEST. THE NBM
CHANCES FOR 1 INCH ARE 50 PERCENT SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE AND
WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER, AND 30 PERCENT FOR 2 INCHES THERE.
HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY COULD BE 10 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL (COLDER IN THE NORTH). THESE COOLER TEMPERATURES COULD
ONLY LAST ONE DAY, THEN BACK TO NORMAL UNTIL TUESDAY. FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY WILL ALSO BE WINDY FROM COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND
A COLD FRONT. CURRENT FORECAST WIND GUSTS ARE AROUND 37MPH.
HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK THERE IS VERY HIGH UNCERTAINTY FOR
TEMPERATURES. SOME MODELS HAVE 850MB TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING, AND
OTHER HAVE THEM 20 DEGREES BELOW FREEZING. LOOKING AT THE
CLUSTERS, THEY ARE SPLIT INTO 2 SOLUTIONS. THAT MUCH COLDER
OUTCOME OR THE SLIGHTLY WARMER ONE, RIGHT NOW THEY ARE LEANING
55/45 PERCENT FOR THE COLDER SOLUTION. NBM TEMPERATURE SPREADS
FOR TUESDAY TO THURSDAY ARE ALMOST 40 DEGREES. COULD BE IN THE
UPPER TEENS, OR NEARING 60 DEGREES THOSE DAY ACROSS SOUTHERN ND.
THE DETERMINISTIC NBM IS NEAR THE MIDDLE AT 33 DEGREES IN THE
SOUTH CENTRAL.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1159 PM CST MON FEB 23 2026
VFR CIGS AND VIS WITH LIGHT SNOW OR FREEZING RAIN TONIGHT. WINDS
WILL BE GUSTY AROUND 30KTS FROM THE WEST EARLY THIS MORNING,
CALMING BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WIND SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT TONIGHT
AS TWO FRONTS MOVE THROUGH THE STATE.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...SMITH
AVIATION...SMITH
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page