878
FXUS63 KBIS 241750
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1150 AM CST TUE FEB 24 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH FRIDAY,
THEN ARE FAVORED TO TREND COOLER THIS WEEKEND.
- WINDY WITH LOW CHANCES FOR SNOW THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER
CHANCE (30% TO 60%) FOR MAINLY SNOW (RAIN/SNOW MIX FAR
SOUTHWEST) ON WEDNESDAY.
- HIGHER UNCERTAINTIES FOR PRECIPITATION NEXT WEEKEND, WITH A
LOT OF UNCERTAINTIES FOR TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1150 AM CST TUE FEB 24 2026
A WEAK IMPULSE ALIGNED WITH A 300MB JET STREAK IS PRODUCING AN
AREA OF VERY LIGHT SNOW ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. MAIN CHANGE WITH THIS UPDATE WAS TO ADD IN WIDESPREAD
LOW CHANCES OF SNOW MOVING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON AS THIS FEATURE TRACKS SOUTH, BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH
IMPACT BEYOND POTENTIALLY SOME MINOR VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS,
ESPECIALLY WITH WINDS STILL BREEZY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 904 AM CST TUE FEB 24 2026
COLD FRONT HAS NEARLY EXITED THE FORECAST AREA ALONG THE SOUTH
DAKOTA BORDER, WITH THE MAJORITY OF RADAR RETURNS GONE. WE DID
EXTEND LOW POPS IN THE SOUTHWEST FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO WHERE
LIGHT RADAR RETURNS HAVE BEEN PERSISTENT, OTHERWISE GOING
FORECAST LOOKS GOOD FOR THE DAY FOR NOW. GOES DAY-SNOW FOG
CHANNEL SHOWS LOW STRATUS EXPANDING ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH
DAKOTA, WITH PLENTY MORE CLOUD COVER UPSTREAM ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN CANADIAN PRAIRIES. BEHIND THE FRONT, TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE DROPPING THROUGH THE DAY, WITH CURRENT TEMPERATURES IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 525 AM CST TUE FEB 24 2026
THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE STATE,
CREATING BREEZY WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES IN IT'S WAKE. VERY LOW
CLOUDS ARE FORMING IN FAR NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA, WILL CONTINUE
TO WATCH THESE TO SEE IF THEY TURN INTO FOG. LIGHT RAIN IS ON
AND OFF BEING REPORTED AROUND THE INTERSTATE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 200 AM CST TUE FEB 24 2026
CURRENTLY STRONG ZONAL FLOW IS PRESENT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
WITH A SLIGHT RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. AT THE
SURFACE A WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM IS GRAZING NORTH DAKOTA. A WARM
FRONT IS LAID ACROSS THE STATE NORTH TO SOUTH, IN THE CENTRAL
PART OF THE STATE. A COLD FRONT IS WORKING IT'S WAY OUT OF
NORTHEAST MONTANA INTO NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. WINDS SHOULD
START TO GUST AROUND 30 KNOTS AS THE COLD AIR ADVECTION KICKS IN
WITH THAT COLD FRONT SOMETIME EARLY THIS MORNING. LIGHT SNOW
HAS BEEN ON AND OFF REPORTED, BUT WITH THE WARM FRONT KICKING IN
THOSE REPORTS ARE NOW RAIN. SO FAR, THE ONLY PRECIP MAKING IT
TO THE GROUND IS IN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. MOST OF THE MODEL
SOUNDINGS HAVE A DRY LAYER NEAR THE SURFACE, THIS IS BACKED BY
OBSERVATIONS UNDER THE RADAR ECHOS NOT REPORTING ANYTHING. WE
WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN LOW TO MEDIUM (20 TO 50 PERCENT) POPS
IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS REASON. LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
ARE EXPECTED. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST THROUGH THE
MORNING, AND CHANCES FOR THE RAIN AND SNOW WILL END BEFORE
SUNRISE HERE IN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
THE REST OF TODAY WILL BE AROUND NORMAL FOR HIGHS EVERYWHERE
EXCEPT THE NORTH. WINDS WILL STAY A LITTLE ELEVATED THROUGH THE
DAY BUT SLOWLY DECREASE, ESPECIALLY WHEN THE DIURNAL MIXING
ENDS. WEDNESDAY A WEAK WAVE AND LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE THROUGH
THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE STATE. THIS WILL BRING HIGHER CHANCES
FOR MOSTLY SNOW ACROSS THE WEST AND SOUTH. THE VARY FAR
SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES COULD SEE A RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE WARMER
AIR. MODELS ARE HINTING AT POSSIBLY A BANDED LIGHT SNOW EVENT
WITH ACCUMULATIONS UP TO 1 INCH ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 200.
NBM CHANCES FOR 1 INCH ARE ONLY 30 PERCENT, AND ARE IN THE
SOUTHWEST. TIMING LOOKS TO BE BETWEEN 6AM CT AND 6PM CT
WEDNESDAY, WITH THE SNOW MOVING WEST TO EAST. THE HIGHEST
CHANCES FOR SNOW IS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE WHERE THE
NBM HAS 60 PERCENT CHANCES THROUGH THAT TIME PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES AGAIN WILL BE AROUND NORMAL, SO A SWITCH TO ALL
RAIN IS POSSIBLE IN THE LATE MORNING IN THE SOUTHWEST, AND IN
THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL.
THE REST OF THIS WEEK WILL BE QUIET WEATHER AND NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WITH STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW. THIS WEEKEND LOOKS TO
TO BE COOLER AS THE NORTHWEST FLOW SINKS SOUTH A LITTLE. WITH
THAT ANOTHER BANDED SNOW EVENT COULD OCCUR ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
AND SOUTH CENTRAL FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS ONCE COULD
BE MORE SNOW ACCUMULATION THAN THE PREVIOUS. RIGHT NOW, FORECAST
SNOW TOTALS ARE AROUND 3 INCHES IN THE SOUTHWEST. THE NBM
CHANCES FOR 1 INCH ARE 50 PERCENT SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE AND
WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER, AND 30 PERCENT FOR 2 INCHES THERE.
HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY COULD BE 10 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL (COLDER IN THE NORTH). THESE COOLER TEMPERATURES COULD
ONLY LAST ONE DAY, THEN BACK TO NORMAL UNTIL TUESDAY. FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY WILL ALSO BE WINDY FROM COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND
A COLD FRONT. CURRENT FORECAST WIND GUSTS ARE AROUND 37MPH.
HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK THERE IS VERY HIGH UNCERTAINTY FOR
TEMPERATURES. SOME MODELS HAVE 850MB TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING, AND
OTHER HAVE THEM 20 DEGREES BELOW FREEZING. LOOKING AT THE
CLUSTERS, THEY ARE SPLIT INTO 2 SOLUTIONS. THAT MUCH COLDER
OUTCOME OR THE SLIGHTLY WARMER ONE, RIGHT NOW THEY ARE LEANING
55/45 PERCENT FOR THE COLDER SOLUTION. NBM TEMPERATURE SPREADS
FOR TUESDAY TO THURSDAY ARE ALMOST 40 DEGREES. COULD BE IN THE
UPPER TEENS, OR NEARING 60 DEGREES THOSE DAY ACROSS SOUTHERN ND.
THE DETERMINISTIC NBM IS NEAR THE MIDDLE AT 33 DEGREES IN THE
SOUTH CENTRAL.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1150 AM CST TUE FEB 24 2026
WIDESPREAD MVFR WITH POCKETS OF IFR CEILINGS CONTINUE TO EXPAND
ACROSS THE STATE, AND ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT ALL TERMINALS INTO
AT LEAST THIS EVENING. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TODAY, DIMINISHING THIS EVENING AND BECOMING LIGHT AND
SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN HOW LONG MVFR
CEILINGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, AND WE CANNOT RULE
OUT SOME FLURRIES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, ALTHOUGH NOT
EXPECTING THIS TO BE ENOUGH TO REDUCE VISIBILITY. ADDITIONAL LOW
CEILINGS AND SNOW CHANCES RETURN TO THE SOUTHWEST LATE IN THE
TAF PERIOD, WITH PROB30 INCLUDED AT KDIK.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...JONES
DISCUSSION...SMITH
AVIATION...JONES
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page