201
FXUS63 KBIS 242039
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
239 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WINDY WITH LOW CHANCES FOR SNOW THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
ANOTHER CHANCE (30 PERCENT) FOR MAINLY SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTH
ON WEDNESDAY.
- TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH FRIDAY,
THEN ARE FAVORED TO TREND COOLER THIS WEEKEND.
- LOW TO MEDIUM POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS THE
SOUTH THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 239 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2026
THIS AFTERNOON, THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WAS DOMINATED BY SHALLOW
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS, IN BETWEEN BROAD
TROUGHING OFF THE EASTERN CONUS AND LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING OVER
THE WESTERN US. A SHALLOW SURFACE HIGH WAS CENTERED IN
SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN, WITH A COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH
THIS MORNING SOUTH OF THE ND/SD STATE LINE. BREEZY NORTHWEST
WINDS HAVE BEEN PERSISTENT THROUGH THE DAY DUE TO THE SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT, BUT WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS THE SURFACE
HIGH EDGES INTO THE FORECAST AREA. BEHIND THE FRONT, WIDESPREAD
LOW STRATUS HAS EXPANDED SOUTH AND COVERS ALL BUT THE SOUTHWEST
CORNER OF THE STATE. AN EMBEDDED IMPULSE STACKED WITH A JET
STREAK IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH
DAKOTA, WHICH IS PROGGED TO DROP SOUTH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION WOULD BE VERY LIGHT, ALTHOUGH WE
ARE SEEING SOME REDUCED VISIBILITY IN AREAS UNDER THE STRONGEST
RADAR RETURNS MOVING THROUGH THE MCHENRY AND PIERCE COUNTY
AREAS.
SNOW AND WIND WILL TAPER OFF TONIGHT, WITH CLOUD COVER EXPECTED
TO PARTIALLY CLEAR OUT AS WELL. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 5
BELOW IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS ARE TO THE UPPER TEENS SOUTHWEST.
ON WEDNESDAY, A SHORTWAVE IS PROJECTED TO SLIDE THROUGH THE
REGION, ALTHOUGH THE BULK OF ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO STAY
SOUTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. WE ARE CARRYING A GENERAL 20 TO
40 PERCENT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY, WITH ONLY A FEW TENTHS
OF SNOW ACCUMULATION EXPECTED ALONG THE SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER.
THIS IS A TREND DOWN FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST UPDATE, AS
HIGH-RESOLUTION GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED SNOW TO THE SOUTH. THERE IS
ALSO A NON-ZERO CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW IN THE TURTLE
MOUNTAINS AREA JUST BASED ON THE LATEST CAMS, BUT KEEPING A DRY
FORECAST IN THIS AREA FOR NOW. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE
FROM THE 20S NORTH CENTRAL AND EAST TO THE LOWER 40S SOUTHWEST.
BROADLY CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES TO END THE WORK WEEK, ALTHOUGH
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE WE END UP ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE, WITH TEMPERATURES PEAKING ON THURSDAY IN THE
UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS THEN COMING INTO
AGREEMENT ON A MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE AND WEATHER SYSTEM MOVING
THROUGH THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES TO START THE WEEKEND, DRAGGING A
COLD FRONT BEHIND IT THAT WILL DROP TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY, AND BRING STRONG WINDS AS WELL. THERE IS ALSO A
MODEST SIGNAL FOR A SECONDARY WAVE TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION,
WITH THE HIGHEST BLENDED POPS IN THE SOUTHWEST, AROUND 60
PERCENT. THE 13Z NBM 5.0 PROBABILITIES GIVES GENERAL LOW TO
MEDIUM POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR AREAS ALONG, SOUTH,
AND WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER, WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF AT
LEAST 2 INCHES OF SNOW IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST.
TEMPERATURES COOL DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY ON SATURDAY AFTER THE
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH, WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE TEENS. FOR
NEXT WEEK, NBM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILES FAVOR A WARMING TREND,
ALTHOUGH SPREAD GETS QUITE LARGE BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE DEVIATES SIGNIFICANTLY ON HOW THE SYNOPTIC
PATTERN MIGHT LOOK, SO LOW CONFIDENCE ON HOW THE WEATHER MIGHT
LOOK NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1150 AM CST TUE FEB 24 2026
WIDESPREAD MVFR WITH POCKETS OF IFR CEILINGS CONTINUE TO EXPAND
ACROSS THE STATE, AND ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT ALL TERMINALS INTO
AT LEAST THIS EVENING. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TODAY, DIMINISHING THIS EVENING AND BECOMING LIGHT AND
SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN HOW LONG MVFR
CEILINGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, AND WE CANNOT RULE
OUT SOME FLURRIES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, ALTHOUGH NOT
EXPECTING THIS TO BE ENOUGH TO REDUCE VISIBILITY. ADDITIONAL LOW
CEILINGS AND SNOW CHANCES RETURN TO THE SOUTHWEST LATE IN THE
TAF PERIOD, WITH PROB30 INCLUDED AT KDIK.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...JONES
AVIATION...JONES
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