101
FXUS63 KBIS 250803
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
203 AM CST WED FEB 25 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A CHANCE (25 PERCENT) FOR LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH
TODAY.
- TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH FRIDAY,
THEN ARE FAVORED TO TREND COOLER THIS WEEKEND.
- MEDIUM TO HIGH (40 TO 60%) CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS
THE SOUTH FRIDAY TO SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 200 AM CST WED FEB 25 2026
CURRENTLY NORTHWEST FLOW IS PRESENT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
AT THE SURFACE A HIGH PRESSURE IS SITTING IN THE EASTERN
DAKOTAS. LOW STRATUS CLOUDS HAVE FORMED IN SOUTHWESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA ON THE EDGE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE. SOME OF THESE LOW
CLOUDS ARE ACTUALLY FOG, REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO LESS THAN 2
MILES. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATE MORNING UNTIL THE
DIURNAL HEATING INCREASES THE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS.
TODAY WILL BE NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A SLIGHT
SHORTWAVE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTH DAKOTA
TODAY, LEADING TO CHANCES OF SNOW. MOST OF THE WAVE WILL MISS
NORTH DAKOTA, SO NOW THE CHANCES FOR SNOW ARE MAINLY JUST ALONG
THE SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER. ALMOST NO SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED, ESPECIALLY WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING IN MOST
OF THOSE AREAS.
THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL BE CONTINUED WARMTH WITH NEAR TO
ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS. THURSDAY WILL BE BREEZY WITH A PASSING LOW
PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH. FRIDAY A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MISS THE
STATE TO THE NORTH, BUT A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE STATE. WINDS WILL OF COURSE BE WINDY. TEMPERATURES WILL
START TO COOL FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AFTER 1PM CT. FRIDAY NIGHT THE
SOUTHWEST PART OF THE STATE WILL BE SQUEEZED BETWEEN A SURFACE
RIDGE IN CENTRAL ND, AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN WYOMING. THIS
WILL CREATE A BANDED SNOW EVENT. THE BAND OF SNOW WILL END UP
SOMEWHERE IN THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE STATE, DEPENDING ON HOW
FAR THAT SURFACE RIDGE MOVES SOUTH. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN THE
EVENT HAPPENING, THE QUESTION IS JUST WHERE EXACTLY. NBM
PROBABILITIES FOR 2 INCHES OF SNOW ARE 50 TO 70 PERCENT IN THE
SOUTHWEST CORNER, SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE. FOR 4 INCHES, IT
DROPS TO 30 PERCENT. THE FORECAST TREND FOR SNOW TOTALS HAVE
BEEN INCREASING, WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SITUATION.
IN THE HIGH PRESSURE AND POST COLD FRONT AIR, SATURDAY WILL BE
MUCH COOLER. LOWS WILL BE BELOW ZERO NORTH TO AROUND 10
ELSEWHERE, THEN EXPECT HIGHS WELL BELOW NORMAL. SINGLE DIGITS IN
THE NORTH TO LOWER 20S IN THE SOUTHWEST. SUNDAY LOWS WILL BE
JUST AS COLD, WITH HIGHS WARMING SLIGHTLY MORE THAN SATURDAY'S.
HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK UNCERTAINTY EXPONENTIALLY GROWS FOR
TEMPERATURES. THE NBM SPREADS ARE 30 DEGREES. THIS IS MOSTLY DUE
TO THE MODELS DIFFERING IN A POSSIBLE COLORADO LOW (THAT WOULD
MISS NORTH DAKOTA) AND DIFFERENT UPPER AIR FLOWS. THE RANGE IS
SHRINKING AND IT IS WARMER OVERALL FROM PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1155 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2026
AN AREA OF MVFR STRATUS IS SLOWLY MOVING SOUTH THROUGH SOUTH
CENTRAL ND, OTHERWISE VFR. PATCHY FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE AT
WESTERN TERMINALS TONIGHT MAINLY AFFECTING DIK. NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL BECOME VARIABLE THEN SOUTHEASTERLY LATER TONIGHT INTO WED
MORNING, WITH WESTERN ND WINDS TRANSITIONING TO WEST/NORTHWEST
WINDS WED AFTERNOON.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...SMITH
AVIATION...SMITH
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