470
FXUS63 KBIS 260327
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
927 PM CST WED FEB 25 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH FRIDAY,
THEN ARE FAVORED TO TREND COOLER THIS WEEKEND.
- STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS ARE FORECAST ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.
- MEDIUM TO HIGH (40 TO 70%) CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 925 PM CST WED FEB 25 2026
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH AN AREA OF SFC LOW PRESSURE MOVING
EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS FAR SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. ASSOCIATED WARM
FRONT IS OVER WESTERN ND, AND WILL CONTINUE EAST TONIGHT. MIX OF
CLOUDS AND A CLEAR SKY THIS EVENING, WHICH LOOKS TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NIGHT. WILL MAINTAIN FOG MENTION IN THE TURTLE
MOUNTAIN REGION.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 545 PM CST WED FEB 25 2026
MAIN FORECAST UPDATE WAS TO SKY COVER, BASED ON LATEST IMAGERY
AND TRENDS. ALSO OPTED TO ADD IN FOG FOR TONIGHT AROUND THE
TURTLE MOUNTAIN REGION, WITH CAMS ALL INDICATING SUCH. ALL
OTHER FORECAST ELEMENTS WERE ON TRACK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 255 PM CST WED FEB 25 2026
THIS AFTERNOON, BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW CHARACTERIZED THE SYNOPTIC
PATTERN ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS, INCLUDING THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED TO OUR EAST OVER MINNESOTA,
WHILE A WARM FRONT EXTENDED NORTH-SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA FROM A LOW ANALYZED IN CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN. LOW STRATUS
HAD BEEN PRETTY PERSISTENT THROUGH THE DAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT,
BUT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE DIMINISHMENT OF LOWER CLOUDS,
WITH SOME ADDITIONAL MID-LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE
SOUTHERN CANADIAN PRAIRIES. BEHIND THE FRONT, WINDS ARE SHIFTING
FROM SOUTHERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY, AND BECOMING BREEZY AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AND WINDS MIX OUT MORE. HIGHS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM THE TEENS IN THE NROTH CENTRAL TO THE
UPPER 40S IN THE SOUTHWEST.
OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MUCH MORE MILD THAN WHAT WE'VE
SEEN LATELY AS LOW-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT CONTINUES TO SPREAD ACROSS THE STATE, KEEPING TEMPERATURES
IN THE UPPER TEENS TO UPPER 20S. THURSDAY IS FORECAST TO BE THE
MILDEST DAY UNTIL POTENTIALLY NEXT WEEK, WITH HIGHS MAINLY FROM
40 TO 50, ALTHOUGH SLIGHTLY COLDER IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS AREA.
WE ALSO SEE A RETURN OF STRONG WEST WINDS, WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH
ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
FRIDAY WE BEGIN TO SEE SOME CHANGES AS AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE AND
ATTENDANT COLD FRONT MOVE, BRINGING CONTINUED STRONG WINDS AND
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SNOW. THE EFI HIGHLIGHTS NORTHEAST NORTH
DAKOTA FOR THE HIGHEST WIND POTENTIAL, BUT STILL COULD SEE WIND
GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH IN OUR EASTERN COUNTIES FROM THE COMBINATION
OF MODEST PRESSURE RISES AND LOW-LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION AS THE
FRONT ROLLS THROUGH. LOCATIONS ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA WILL
LIKELY SEE THEIR HIGH TEMPERATURES EARLY IN THE DAY BEFORE
COLDER AIR FILTERS IN.
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE ARE ALL IN AGREEMENT ON A
BAND OF FRONTOGENESIS ORIENTED GENERALLY NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST AND
PROGRESSING ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. NBM PROBABILITIES CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT SOUTHWEST
NORTH DAKOTA AS A LIKELY AREA TO SEE ACCUMULATING SNOW, WITH A
50 PERCENT OR HIGHER CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE SNOW IN A LINE FROM
WILLISTON TO OAKES AND SOUTH. THE LATEST PROBABILITIES ALSO
HIGHLIGHT LOW BUT NON-ZERO PROBABILITIES FOR WARNING LEVEL SNOW
AMOUNTS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA, WHICH DOES ALIGN
WITH A BANDED SNOWFALL SCENARIO. WITH SNOW RATIOS EXPECTED TO BE
ABOVE 10:1, A LOOK AT QPF AMOUNTS HELPS ILLUSTRATE SNOWFALL
POTENTIAL WITH THE UPCOMING SYSTEM. THREE OF FOUR ENSEMBLE
CLUSTERS GIVE A BROADLY MEDIUM CHANCE FOR AT LEAST 0.20 INCHES
OF QPF WITH THIS SYSTEM, WHICH WOULD PRODUCE A GENERAL 3 TO 4
INCHES OF SNOW. THE LOCATION AND AXIS OF THESE PROBABILITIES
SHIFTS AROUND A BIT, WITH 60 PERCENT OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
FAVORING THE SOUTHWEST WHILE A MINORITY CLUSTER BRINGS THE MAIN
AXIS OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL. WITH MORE
MESOSCALE FORCING COMPARED TO SYNOPTIC, PREDICTABILITY IS A BIT
LOWER WITH THIS SYSTEM, WHICH MAKES BANDED SNOW EVENTS TRICKY TO
FORECAST. WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW THINGS TREND OVER THE NEXT DAY
OR TWO, TO HAVE A BETTER IDEA OF ANY POTENTIALLY HIGHER SNOW
AMOUNTS AND WHETHER OR NOT THAT WILL WARRANT HEADLINES OF SOME
KIND.
TEMPERATURES BOTTOM OUT ON SATURDAY, WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE
TEENS NORTH AND EAST TO THE MID 20S SOUTHWEST. LIGHT SNOW
CHANCES LINGER THROUGH SATURDAY AND INTO SUNDAY, BUT WOULD NOT
EXPECT MUCH, IF ANY, ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION FROM THIS ACTIVITY.
NBM PERCENTILES INDICATE A WARMING TREND HEADING INTO THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS UPPER FLOW STARTS TO FLATTEN. BY THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK, SPREAD IN POTENTIAL TEMPERATURES BECOMES QUITE
LARGE AS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE ADVERTISING A VARIETY OF
SOLUTIONS, ALTHOUGH THE 25TH PERCENTILE ARE STILL NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR THE BEGINNING OF MARCH.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 925 PM CST WED FEB 25 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE 06Z
PERIOD. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE TURNING WESTERLY AS A WARM FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT, WITH GUSTY WINDS
EXPECTED DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL BE
POSSIBLE DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD, THOUGH WITH A BETTER
CHANCE OF OCCURRENCE THURSDAY EVENING.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...NH
DISCUSSION...JONES
AVIATION...NH
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page