891
FXUS63 KBIS 261504
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
904 AM CST THU FEB 26 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
- WINDY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY INTO FRIDAY, THEN
MUCH COLDER FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCES FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS SOUTHWEST
AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY,
WITH LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES FOR A NARROW BAND EXCEEDING 3
INCHES.
- A RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS FAVORED FOR NEXT
WEEK. A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN COULD DEVELOP FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 904 AM CST THU FEB 26 2026
LIMITED UPDATES NEEDED THIS MORNING. MID TO HIGH CLOUDS WILL
ROAM ACROSS THE STATE TODAY. GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL ALSO BE FOUND
TODAY, BRINGING WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS. THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME
NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN THE SOUTHWEST. MOST
AREAS WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE 40S TO 50S TODAY AS WELL. OVERALL
THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 610 AM CST THU FEB 26 2026
OVERALL, THE FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE. ONE MESSAGING
CHANGE OF NOTE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS IN FAR SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON, WHERE
MINIMUM HUMIDITY COULD FALL TO AROUND 30 PERCENT WITH SUSTAINED
WESTERLY WINDS AROUND 25 TO 30 MPH. THIS THREAT IS HIGHLY
CONTINGENT ON FUEL MOISTURE, WHICH IS LIKELY VARIABLE, BUT
OBSERVED SNOW DEPTH THERE IS A TRACE AT MOST.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 235 AM CST THU FEB 26 2026
NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING IS
BECOMING MORE ANTICYCLONIC AS AN UNDERLYING LOW LEVEL WARM FRONT
HAS BEGUN CROSSING THE REGION. A STRONG WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW
WITH REINFORCING PACIFIC AIR SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB
WELL ABOVE NORMAL THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SETUP FAVORS HIGH
TEMPERATURES APPROACHING THE WARMEST QUARTILE OF NBM GUIDANCE IN
THE ABSENCE OF A DEEP SNOW PACK, WHICH IS THE CASE FOR MOST OF
OUR FORECAST AREA. THE 75TH PERCENTILE OF THE NBM DISTRIBUTION
WAS THEREFORE USED FOR THE HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST TODAY,
WHICH RANGES FROM THE MID 30S IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS AREA TO
THE LOWER AND MID 50S ALONG AND TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE
MISSOURI RIVER. THE WESTERLY WINDS COULD BECOME STRONG THIS
AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WHERE GUSTS COULD
REACH 40 MPH.
A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM
CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN THROUGH ONTARIO TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. AN
INITIAL COLD FRONT IS SCHEDULED TO CROSS THE STATE FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
FORECAST MAGNITUDES OF COLD AIR ADVECTION AND PRESSURE RISES
SUGGEST A PERIOD OF STRONGER WINDS COULD OCCUR WITH THIS FRONTAL
PASSAGE, WITH SURFACE GUSTS PERHAPS IN THE 40 TO 50 MPH RANGE,
BUT THE OVERNIGHT TIMING COULD ALSO LIMIT THIS POTENTIAL. AT
LEAST BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT THOUGH,
WHICH SHOULD KEEP OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES MOSTLY IN THE 30S. A
SECONDARY BUT MORE POTENT COLD FRONT IS THEN SET TO FOLLOW A
SIMILAR PATH THROUGH THE STATE MID FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. THIS TIMING PROVIDES A MUCH GREATER POTENTIAL FOR
MOMENTUM TRANSFER OF MEAN BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS TO THE SURFACE,
WHICH COULD BE AS HIGH AS AROUND 30 KTS FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TO AS HIGH AS 50 KTS IN THE NORTHEAST. A
WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED ON FRIDAY FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS
THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. DAILY MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ON
FRIDAY COULD BE OBSERVED BEFORE SUNRISE AT MANY LOCATIONS,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH PRIOR TO PEAK HEATING. THE PROJECTED DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE TREND RANGES FROM A TYPICAL CURVE ACROSS THE SOUTH
TO NEAR-STEADY OR FALLING ACROSS THE NORTH. DAYTIME HIGHS ARE
FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE 20S NORTH TO AROUND 40 SOUTHWEST.
THE DEEPENING CANADIAN LOW WILL INCREASE CYCLONIC SHEAR
VORTICITY AND FRONTOGENESIS OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY. A FEW
CAMS ARE ADVERTISING SOME LIGHT SNOW MOVING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA DURING THE DAY FRIDAY IN RESPONSE TO
THIS FORCING, BUT THIS IS NOT UNIVERSAL AND THINK ANY SNOW
AMOUNTS FROM THIS WOULD BE A DUSTING AT MOST. THIS POTENTIAL
WILL NOT BE WIDELY MESSAGED UNTIL OR UNLESS CONFIDENCE
INCREASES. BY FRIDAY NIGHT THOUGH, A FURTHER AMPLIFICATION OF
CYCLONIC SHEAR VORTICITY AND LOW TO MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS IS
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE A BAND OF SNOW WITH NORTHWEST-TO-SOUHTEAST
ORIENTATION THAT IS LIKELY TO IMPACT SOME, BUT NOT ALL PARTS OF
WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THIS FEATURE HAS BEEN
PRESENT IN GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS FOR SEVERAL
DAYS, BUT WITH PLACEMENT UNCERTAINTY THAT APPEARS TO HAVE BECOME
EVEN MORE PRONOUNCED IN THE 00Z SET OF GUIDANCE. TWO ENSEMBLE
CLUSTERS THAT COMPOSE A SLIGHT MAJORITY OF ALL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
PLACE THE HIGHEST QPF/SNOW PROBABILITIES ALONG AN AXIS BETWEEN
HIGHWAY 12 AND A LINE FROM AROUND BEACH TO FORT YATES. A GEFS-
HEAVY MINORITY CLUSTER PLACES THIS AXIS ALMOST COMPLETELY
OUTSIDE OF THE STATE TO THE SOUTHWEST, WHILE A DIFFERING ECMWF-
HEAVY MINORITY CLUSTER PLACES THE AXIS AS FAR NORTH AS AROUND
WATFORD CITY TO BISMARCK. PAIRING CONCEPTUAL MODELING AND
SUBJECTIVE RECOLLECTION OF THIS TYPE OF SETUP YIELDS THE
NORTHERN SOLUTION TO BE A FAR LESS LIKELY OUTCOME. IN FACT, EVEN
THE NAMNEST WHICH HAS A WELL- DOCUMENTED NORTH-BIAS WITH BANDED
SNOW IS MORE IN LINE WITH THE TWO MAJORITY ENSEMBLE CLUSTERS.
FOR THESE REASONS, WE WILL LIMIT THE MESSAGING OF POTENTIAL
HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS TO SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
FOR NOW.
THERE ARE SEVERAL FACTORS WORKING BOTH FOR AND AGAINST AN
IMPACTFUL BANDED SNOW EVENT FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
FACTORS WORKING IN FAVOR OF HIGHER AMOUNTS INCLUDE: 1) VERY
STRONG FRONTOGENESIS, 2) CLIMATOLOGICALLY HIGH PROJECTED SNOW-
TO-LIQUID RATIOS OF AT LEAST 20:1 GIVEN A DEEP AND SATURATED
DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS THROUGHOUT,
AND 3) A LONG RESIDENCE TIME OF SNOWFALL WHERE THE BAND SETS UP.
FACTORS WORKING AGAINST A MORE IMPACTFUL BANDED SNOW EVENT
INCLUDE: 1) WEAKER QG FORCING THAT IS NOT GUARANTEED TO OVERLAP
WITH THE STRONG FRONTOGENESIS AND 2) WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
OVERALL ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES FOR AT LEAST 0.20" OF QPF, WHICH
WOULD EQUATE TO AROUND 4 INCHES OF SNOW, HAVE DECREASED SINCE
YESTERDAY, BUT THIS MAY BE A FUNCTION OF THE INCREASED SPATIAL
UNCERTAINTY. ONCE ALL CAMS' FORECAST TIME RANGE EXTENDS THROUGH
THIS EVENT, WHICH WILL BE BY THE END OF TODAY, WE SHOULD HAVE A
MUCH BETTER IDEA ON THE MAXIMUM SNOW POTENTIAL FOR THIS EVENT,
BUT THE LOCATION OF HIGHEST AMOUNTS COULD REMAIN UNCERTAINTY
UNTIL NEAR OR EVEN AFTER THE START OF THE EVENT.
ASIDE FROM THE BANDED SNOW POTENTIAL, THE OTHER MAIN STORY FOR
THE WEEKEND IS MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES. SATURDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE THE COLDEST TIME PERIOD GIVEN THE
PLACEMENT OF A SYNOPTIC-SCALE ARCTIC SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FROM
THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES TO THE RED AND UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEYS. HIGHS ON SATURDAY ARE FORECAST TO
RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS
AREA TO NEAR 30 IN THE SOUTHWEST CORNER OF THE STATE. LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT ARE MOSTLY FORECAST IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
AND BELOW ZERO, COLDEST AGAIN IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS AREA. A
WARMING TREND SHOULD COMMENCE ON SUNDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH
SLIDES EASTWARD AND MILDER PACIFIC AIR BEGINS TO FILTER BACK IN
FROM THE WEST.
ENSEMBLES ARE CONSISTENT WITH A NORTHWEST TO QUASI-ZONAL FLOW
PATTERN MONDAY THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK THAT
RETURNS THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST TO ABOVE NORMAL. THERE COULD BE
A FEW EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES WITH THIS PATTERN, BUT PREDICTABILITY
ON THESE SMALLER SCALE FEATURES REMAINS LOW. BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK, WE START TO SEE A MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN EMERGE
IN DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE THAT COULD EVOLVE INTO A
PREDOMINANT SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE
NBM TEMPERATURE DISTRIBUTION REMAINS QUITE LARGE FOR MID TO
LATE NEXT WEEK, BUT STILL GENERALLY RANGES FROM NEAR NORMAL
(HIGHS IN THE 30S) TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR MOST OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 610 AM CST THU FEB 26 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 15-25 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH GUSTS TO 35 KTS IN WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. IT
WILL REMAIN BREEZY THROUGH TONIGHT, AND A COLD FRONT DROPPING
DOWN FROM CANADA WILL BEGIN TURNING WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST
LATER IN THE NIGHT. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL IMPACT MUCH OF
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA EARLY THIS MORNING,
THEN MOST OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING
THROUGH TONIGHT.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...ANGLIN
DISCUSSION...HOLLAN
AVIATION...HOLLAN
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