971
FXUS63 KBIS 120628
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
128 AM CDT THU MAR 12 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- VERY STRONG WINDS EXPECTED OVER MOST OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING, WITH GUSTS UP TO
70 MPH.
- PERIODS OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT PRIMARILY
OVER NORTHERN LOCATIONS. GREATEST CHANCES FOR ACCUMULATION
REMAINS OVER AND ADJACENT TO THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS WHERE 1 TO 3
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE, WHICH COMBINED WITH THE WIND COULD
SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE VISIBILITY.
- SNOW AGAIN DEVELOPS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA SATURDAY INTO EARLY
SUNDAY. GREATEST CHANCES FOR IMPACTS DUE TO SNOW REMAIN ALONG
AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 94.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 127 AM CDT THU MAR 12 2026
THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT REMAINS ON TRACK. ELEVATED RADAR
RETURNS CONTINUE TO STREAM EAST ACROSS THE STATE, AHEAD OF A
STRONG CLIPPER STORM SYSTEM SET TO IMPACT THE REGION TOMORROW.
WILL MAINTAIN MAINLY DRY WEATHER FOR TONIGHT WITH CLOUD CEILINGS
AT OR ABOVE 8-10K FEET AGL. POPS THEN INCREASE AFTER 09Z WEST
AS CEILINGS DROP AND FORCING INCREASES.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 951 PM CDT WED MAR 11 2026
FOR THE LATE EVENING UPDATE WE ADJUSTED POPS A BIT OVERNIGHT. IN
GENERAL, IT LOOKS LIKE THE ARRIVAL OF PRECIPITATION IS A BIT
LATER THAN FORECAST SO WE BLENDED A BIT OF THE LATEST HIGHRES
GUIDANCE, WHICH IS A BIT SLOWER THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY. FOR NOW
NO CHANGES TO POPS BEYOND 12Z. MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY
COVER AS WELL. FOR WINDS WE UTILIZED A BLEND OF NBM90 WITH SOME
OF THE TIME LAGGED RAP/HRRR GUIDANCE. OVERALL, LITTLE CHANGES
FROM PREVIOUS GUIDANCE, JUST A LITTLE SMOOTHER AND NOT SO MANY
DROP OFFS IN WIND GUSTS. NO CHANGES TO THE CURRENT HEADLINES.
UPDATED TEXT PRODUCTS WILL BE TRANSMITTED SHORTLY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 550 PM CDT WED MAR 11 2026
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FOR THE EARLY EVENING UPDATE. THERE ARE
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER NORTHEAST MONTANA THAT MAY PRODUCE
SOME BRIEF SHOWERS/SPRINKLES AS THEY MOVE INTO WESTERN ND EARLY
THIS EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOWS SOME VERY SMALL CAPE
IN AN AREAS OF STEEP LAPSE RATES. CAN'T COMPLETELY RULE OUT
THUNDER AGAIN EARLY THIS EVENING BUT PROBABILITIES ARE LOW.
OTHERWISE PRETTY QUIET THIS EVENING BEFORE PRECIP BEGINS TO PUSH
INTO THE WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. NO CHANGES TO CURRENT WIND AND
WINTER WEATHER HAZARDS. UPDATED PRODUCTS WILL BE TRANSMITTED
SHORTLY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 132 PM CDT WED MAR 11 2026
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW ALONG THE ALBERTA AND
SASKATCHEWAN BORDER WHILE HIGH STRETCHES FROM MANITOBA SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARDS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
PLACES TROUGH PUSHING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH WEST-
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTAINING A FEW SUBTLE WAVES OVER AND TO
THE WEST OF OUR AREA. QUIET WEATHER REMAINS IN PLACE FOR US.
FOR TONIGHT, AFOREMENTIONED PACIFIC UPPER WAVE QUICKLY PUSHES
EAST OVER THE ROCKIES WHILE SURFACE LOW DEEPENS TO THE LEE OF
THE CANADIAN/MONTANA ROCKIES AND STARTS TO SHIFT OVER THE
PLAINS. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM, WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS MAINLY SNOW STARTING
TO INCREASE OVER THE WEST LATE.
ON THURSDAY, AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE DEEPENS AS IT SLIDES
NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER, CLOSING OFF TOWARDS EVENING. IN
THE MEANTIME, SURFACE LOW SLIDES OVER THE STATE, PUSHING OVER
THE RED RIVER VALLEY BY EVENING. PRECIPITATION SPREADS THROUGH
THE AREA, WITH THE INITIAL PUSH COMING AS SNOW. THEN A
TRANSITION TOWARDS RAIN IS EXPECTED OVER MANY LOCATIONS EXCEPT
THE FAR NORTH BEFORE THE COLD PUSH OF AIR COMES BEHIND THE LOW.
ONCE THE COOLER AIR PUSHES IN, EXPECT A TRANSITION FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH BACK TO SNOW FOR ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION. WINDS WILL
QUICKLY BE ON THE INCREASE WITH THIS DEEPENING LOW AS COLDER AIR
PUSHES INTO THE AREA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS OVER WESTERN AND MANY
CENTRAL PARTS OF THE STATE CONTINUE TO SUGGEST VERY STRONG WINDS
MIXING DOWN, SO WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE GUSTS TO 70 MPH. FOR
THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT AREAS, EXPECT SNOW TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING, WITH
ACCUMULATIONS AROUND ONE TO THREE INCHES. SOUNDINGS THERE SUGGEST
LESSER WINDS, BUT STILL GUSTING TO AROUND 50 MPH WHICH,
COMBINED WITH THE ANTICIPATED SNOW, COULD RESULT IN SOME PERIODS
OF NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF
THURSDAY EVENING AS THE SYSTEM SLIDES EAST, WITH WINDS GRADUALLY
TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST LATE THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT.
FRIDAY WILL SEE COOLER TEMPERATURES AND MEDIUM SNOW CHANCES
MAINLY WEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL AS ANOTHER WAVE MOVES THROUGH.
SATURDAY WILL BE THE NEXT DAY OF CONCERN AS AN UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHES AND PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION AND A SURFACE LOW
SLIDES THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THERE REMAINS SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM, BUT IMPACTFUL WEATHER REMAINS A
CONCERN, PARTICULARLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 94. LATEST
NBM GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW MEDIUM PROBABILITIES (~50-70
PERCENT CHANCE) OF SEEING 4 INCHES OR MORE SNOW OVER THIS AREA,
LESSER AS YOU GO NORTH. SYSTEM DEPARTS THE AREA SUNDAY.
COOLER TEMPERATURES STICK AROUND TO START THE UPCOMING WEEK,
WITH A NOTABLE WARMING TREND POSSIBLE BY MID-WEEK. NBM GUIDANCE
DOES SHOW A NOTABLE SPREAD IN POSSIBLE TEMPERATURES, BUT THE
MAIN MESSAGE IS THAT EVEN WITH THAT, THE TREND IS WARMER. WITH
THAT SAID, SOME PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAIN IN THE FORECAST
WITH THE WARM AIR PUSHING IN.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 127 AM CDT THU MAR 12 2026
A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA THURSDAY. EXPECT
PERIODS OF SNOW TO PUSH INTO AND THROUGH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING, WITH A TRANSITION TO RAIN LATER IN THE
MORNING. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE FAR NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA WHERE
PRECIPITATION MAY REMAIN AS SNOW. THIS COULD BRING PERIODS OF
MVFR TO IFR VISIBILITY. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT,
SHIFTING WEST TO NORTHWEST THURSDAY MORNING AND INCREASING.
GUSTS TO 50 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER WESTERN LOCATIONS LATE
THURSDAY MORNING. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON, WITH WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE OVER THE AREA, THE
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL LOOK TO BE FAVORED FOR THE
STRONGEST GUSTS THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ THIS MORNING TO 10
PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR NDZ001-009-017-018-031>033-
040-041-043-044.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 1 PM CDT /NOON MDT/ THIS AFTERNOON TO 1
AM CDT /MIDNIGHT MDT/ FRIDAY FOR NDZ002-003-010-011-019>021-
034-035-042-045-046.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM CDT
FRIDAY FOR NDZ004-005-013.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM CDT FRIDAY
FOR NDZ012-022-023-025-036-037-047-048-050-051.
UPDATE...NH
DISCUSSION...JJS
AVIATION...NH
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