151
FXUS63 KBIS 122026
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
326 PM CDT THU MAR 12 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- VERY STRONG WINDS OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA INTO
THIS EVENING, WITH GUSTS UP TO 70 MPH OVER MOST LOCATIONS.
GUSTS TO 80 POSSIBLE SOUTHWEST, WITH A FEW SPOTS POSSIBLY A
BIT HIGHER IF RAIN SHOWERS ARE PASSING OVER.
- CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.
- PERIODS OF SNOW CONTINUE MAINLY AROUND THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS
INTO THIS EVENING, WHICH COMBINED WITH THE WIND COULD
SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE VISIBILITY.
- SNOW AGAIN DEVELOPS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA SATURDAY INTO EARLY
SUNDAY. GREATEST CHANCES FOR IMPACTS DUE TO SNOW REMAIN ALONG
AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 94.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 229 PM CDT THU MAR 12 2026
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES CENTER OF DEEP LOW BETWEEN MINOT
AND HARVEY. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH THIS LOW IS RESULTING
IN SOME VERY STRONG WINDS, PARTICULARLY BEHIND THE SURFACE
TROUGH WHICH IS NEARING THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR. STRONGEST WINDS
WITH GUSTS IN THE 80S HAVE OCCURRED ALONG THIS TROUGH OVER
SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA, WITH GUSTS TO 70 ELSEWHERE BEHIND THE
TROUGH. WINDS CONTINUE TO BE ENHANCED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER
THE AREA, WITH ENOUGH INSTABILITY IN PLACE FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT, MOST NOTABLY IN THE VICINITY OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
TROUGH. ONE HAS DEVELOPED NEAR AND NORTH OF BISMARCK, OF WHICH A
SEVERE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED UP
SOUTHWEST INTO WEST CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WELL INTO THE 40S AND
LOWER 50S, WHILE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TO THE WEST OF THE LOW,
TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE 30S.
FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT SURFACE LOW WILL
CONTINUE SETTING TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST, WITH STRONG WINDS
CONTINUING INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE TAPERING OFF. PER LATEST
FORECAST SOUNDINGS, GREATEST THREAT FOR 80 MPH WINDS REMAINS
OVER SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA, NOTABLY WITH A SECONDARY SURGE OF
PRESSURE RISES WITH THE COLD FRONT DROPPING DOWN. GUSTS TO 70
REMAIN THE KEY THREAT ELSEWHERE THAT HIGH WIND WARNINGS ARE IN
EFFECT. WITH THAT SAID, STILL EXPECT WINDS TO DROP OFF THROUGH
THE EVENING FROM WEST TO EAST AS PRESSURE RISES QUICKLY DIMINISH
WITH THE FAST MOVING SYSTEM. WITH RESPECT TO THUNDERSTORMS,
ENOUGH INSTABILITY REMAINS IN PLACE FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE STRONG WINDS RIGHT OFF THE SURFACE,
ANY STORM (OR SHOWER FOR THAT MATTER) WILL HAVE TO BE CLOSELY
MONITORED FOR ENHANCED WIND GUSTS GIVEN THE EASE OF THE STRONG
WINDS MIXING DOWN.
AS FOR SNOW, EXPECT PERIODS OF SNOW TO CONTINUE OVER NORTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA, WITH SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLY
WRAPPING IN BEHIND THE LOW AS IT MOVES ON ITS WAY. WITH RESPECT
TO NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA, PARTICULARLY AROUND THE TURTLE
MOUNTAINS WHERE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT, WILL
HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON BLOWING SNOW AND VISIBILITY ONCE
WINDS START TO REALLY INCREASE OVER THAT AREA. FOR NOW HAVE KEPT
ADVISORY IN PLACE WITH MENTION OF POSSIBLE NEAR-BLIZZARD, BUT
IF SNOW STARTS MOVING MORE THAN ANTICIPATED THIS EVENING,
BLIZZARD HEADLINES WILL NEED CONSIDERATION.
AS WE GO INTO FRIDAY THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE ON ITS WAY OUT OF
THE AREA, BUT ADDITIONAL LOW TO MEDIUM SNOW CHANCES DEVELOP
MAINLY OVER WESTERN AND SOUTHERN LOCATIONS BEHIND SURFACE HIGH
THAT DROPS THROUGH EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE. THESE CHANCES
LINGER AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING SATURDAY.
ON SATURDAY AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES AND PUSHES THROUGH THE
REGION AND A SURFACE LOW SLIDES THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. IMPACTFUL
WEATHER REMAINS A CONCERN, PARTICULARLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 94. NBM GUIDANCE HAS BEEN QUITE CONSISTENT WITH THIS,
CONTINUING TO SHOW A 50 TO 75 PERCENT CHANCE OF 4 INCHES OR MORE
OF SNOW FOR THIS AREA, AND A 40 TO 60 PERCENT CHANCE OF 6 INCHES
OR MORE. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH LIMITS THE NORTHERN EXTENT
OF THE SNOW, WITH NORTHERN PARTS OF OUR AREA POSSIBLY SEEING
LITTLE TO NO SNOWFALL. SNOW DEPARTS ON SUNDAY, WITH QUITE COLD
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.
NOTABLE WARMING TREND IS THEN ON TAP GOING THROUGH THE WORK
WEEK, WITH SOME LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY WITH THE WARMER AIR PUSHING IN. ALTHOUGH NBM
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A SPREAD IN HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR A
FEW OF THE DAYS, THE TREND IS SHARPLY WARMER.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1253 PM CDT THU MAR 12 2026
A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO THE AREA TODAY.
SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING OVER PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA, WITH A
CONTINUED CHANGEOVER FROM SNOW TO RAIN ELSEWHERE. THE SNOWFALL
COULD BRING PERIODS OF IFR VISIBILITY. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
SHIFT WEST TO NORTHWEST. GUSTS TO 50-60 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE
OVER MOST LOCATIONS, WITH GUSTS TO 70 KTS POSSIBLE OVER
SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. CONDITIONS SLOWLY IMPROVE TONIGHT AS
WINDS SUBSIDE SLOWLY FROM WEST TO EAST AND PRECIPITATION ENDS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 907 AM CDT THU MAR 12 2026
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE REGION TODAY WILL
BRING VERY STRONG WINDS. THE WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM SOUTHERLY TO
WEST-NORTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY. GUSTS UP TO 70
MPH ARE EXPECTED NORTH OF INTERSTATE 94, AND UP TO 80 MPH SOUTH
OF INTERSTATE 94. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED
TO BE AT OR ABOVE 40 PERCENT NORTH AND EAST OF THE MISSOURI
RIVER, BUT WILL DROP DURING THE AFTERNOON SOUTH AND WEST OF THE
RIVER TO AS LOW AS 20 PERCENT MID TO LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THUS,
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA TODAY, WHEN THERE WILL BE A 3-4 HOUR
PERIOD OF LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY COMBINING WITH THE VERY STRONG
WINDS. A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THESE AREAS FROM
MID-DAY THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
NDZ001-009-017-018-031>033-040-041-043-044.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 1 AM CDT /MIDNIGHT MDT/ FRIDAY FOR
NDZ002-003-010-011-019>021-034-035-042-045-046.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR NDZ004-005-
013.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 4 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR NDZ012-022-023-025-
036-037-047-048-050-051.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT /7 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
NDZ017-018-031>033-040-041-043-044.
DISCUSSION...JJS
AVIATION...JJS
FIRE WEATHER...JJS
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