812
FXUS63 KBIS 130221
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
921 PM CDT THU MAR 12 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- VERY STRONG WINDS DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT.
- SNOW ENDING NORTH CENTRAL EARLY THIS EVENING, BUT PERIODS OF
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW LINGER THROUGH THE EVENING.
- SNOW DEVELOPS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA SATURDAY INTO EARLY
SUNDAY. GREATEST CHANCES FOR IMPACTS DUE TO SNOW REMAIN ALONG
AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 94.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 916 PM CDT THU MAR 12 2026
THE VERY TAIL END OF THE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE IS TRACKING
THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY ATTIM. BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW
IN JAMESTOWN LAST HOUR AND ALSO A GUST TO 61 MPH. WINDS IN THE
WEST THROUGH HAVE DIMINISHED GREATLY AND HAVE CANCELLED THE HIGH
WIND WARNING FOR THE WEST. STILL SOME STRONG GUSTS IN CENTRAL
ND, SO WILL CONTINUE THE REMAINING TWO SEGMENTS. THE SOUTH
CENTRAL SEGMENT THAT INCLUDES THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR MAY BE
ABLE TO BE CANCELLED BEFORE MIDNIGHT. UPDATED TEXT PRODUCTS WILL
BE TRANSMITTED SHORTLY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 750 PM CDT THU MAR 12 2026
THE RED FLAG WARNING FOR MUCH OF WESTERN ND HAS BEEN CANCELLED.
WINDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH OVER WESTERN ND THIS EVENING.
HUMIDITIES IN WESTERN ND HAVE CLIMBED WELL OVER 50 PERCENT AS
THE COLDER AIR HAS PUSHED THROUGH ALL OF WESTERN ND.
ELSEWHERE, HAS RAPIDLY DIMINISHED OVER NORTH CENTRAL ND AND INTO
THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS. LITTLE IF ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED BUT WITH THE STRONG WINDS AND THE SNOW THAT FELL
EARLIER, VISIBILITIES REMAIN REDUCED IN BLOWING AND DRIFTING
SNOW. WILL SEND OUT AN UPDATED ADVISORY SHORTLY, KEEPING IT
GOING DUE TO THE STRONG WINDS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 547 PM CDT THU MAR 12 2026
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS SITUATED NEAR HARVEY ND AND CONTINUES
TO TRACK ESE. SOME CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE I-94
CORRIDOR BETWEEN BISMARCK AND JAMESTOWN. THE STRONGER STORMS
COULD PRODUCE SOME VERY GUSTY WINDS. WINDS HAVE FINALLY PICKED
UP OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ND WITH A GUST TO 70 MPH AT THE BISMARCK
AIRPORT THIS PAST HOUR. VERY STRONG WINDS CONTINUE IN THE
SOUTHWEST, BUT HAVE BACKED OFF A BIT FROM THE CRAZY HIGH WINDS
EARLIER TODAY. IN THE NORTH CENTRAL, A BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
SNOW IS WRAPPING AROUND THE SURFACE LOW AS IT PUSHES OFF TO THE
EAST. THIS BAND DROPPED A QUICK 3 INCHES OF SNOW AT THE MINOT
AFB IN PAST 2 HOURS OR SO. THIS BAND IS MOVING PRETTY QUICK SO
THE HEAVY SNOW IS EXPECTED TO END OVER THE AFB PRETTY QUICKLY,
AND OVER WARD COUNTY IN GENERAL IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.
WE MADE SOME CHANGES LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WE ENDED THE HWW IN
THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL, REPLACING THE HWW WITH A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY IN THE NORTH CENTRAL. IN THE NORTHWEST WHERE
SNOW HAS ENDED OR WILL SHORTLY, WE ISSUED A SPS TO COVER THIS
AND THE ICY ROADS DUE TO TEMPERATURES DROPPING BELOW FREEZING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 229 PM CDT THU MAR 12 2026
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES CENTER OF DEEP LOW BETWEEN MINOT
AND HARVEY. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH THIS LOW IS RESULTING
IN SOME VERY STRONG WINDS, PARTICULARLY BEHIND THE SURFACE
TROUGH WHICH IS NEARING THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR. STRONGEST WINDS
WITH GUSTS IN THE 80S HAVE OCCURRED ALONG THIS TROUGH OVER
SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA, WITH GUSTS TO 70 ELSEWHERE BEHIND THE
TROUGH. WINDS CONTINUE TO BE ENHANCED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER
THE AREA, WITH ENOUGH INSTABILITY IN PLACE FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT, MOST NOTABLY IN THE VICINITY OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
TROUGH. ONE HAS DEVELOPED NEAR AND NORTH OF BISMARCK, OF WHICH A
SEVERE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED UP
SOUTHWEST INTO WEST CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WELL INTO THE 40S AND
LOWER 50S, WHILE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TO THE WEST OF THE LOW,
TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE 30S.
FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT SURFACE LOW WILL
CONTINUE SETTING TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST, WITH STRONG WINDS
CONTINUING INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE TAPERING OFF. PER LATEST
FORECAST SOUNDINGS, GREATEST THREAT FOR 80 MPH WINDS REMAINS
OVER SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA, NOTABLY WITH A SECONDARY SURGE OF
PRESSURE RISES WITH THE COLD FRONT DROPPING DOWN. GUSTS TO 70
REMAIN THE KEY THREAT ELSEWHERE THAT HIGH WIND WARNINGS ARE IN
EFFECT. WITH THAT SAID, STILL EXPECT WINDS TO DROP OFF THROUGH
THE EVENING FROM WEST TO EAST AS PRESSURE RISES QUICKLY DIMINISH
WITH THE FAST MOVING SYSTEM. WITH RESPECT TO THUNDERSTORMS,
ENOUGH INSTABILITY REMAINS IN PLACE FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE STRONG WINDS RIGHT OFF THE SURFACE,
ANY STORM (OR SHOWER FOR THAT MATTER) WILL HAVE TO BE CLOSELY
MONITORED FOR ENHANCED WIND GUSTS GIVEN THE EASE OF THE STRONG
WINDS MIXING DOWN.
AS FOR SNOW, EXPECT PERIODS OF SNOW TO CONTINUE OVER NORTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA, WITH SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLY
WRAPPING IN BEHIND THE LOW AS IT MOVES ON ITS WAY. WITH RESPECT
TO NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA, PARTICULARLY AROUND THE TURTLE
MOUNTAINS WHERE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT, WILL
HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON BLOWING SNOW AND VISIBILITY ONCE
WINDS START TO REALLY INCREASE OVER THAT AREA. FOR NOW HAVE KEPT
ADVISORY IN PLACE WITH MENTION OF POSSIBLE NEAR-BLIZZARD, BUT
IF SNOW STARTS MOVING MORE THAN ANTICIPATED THIS EVENING,
BLIZZARD HEADLINES WILL NEED CONSIDERATION.
AS WE GO INTO FRIDAY THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE ON ITS WAY OUT OF
THE AREA, BUT ADDITIONAL LOW TO MEDIUM SNOW CHANCES DEVELOP
MAINLY OVER WESTERN AND SOUTHERN LOCATIONS BEHIND SURFACE HIGH
THAT DROPS THROUGH EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE. THESE CHANCES
LINGER AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING SATURDAY.
ON SATURDAY AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES AND PUSHES THROUGH THE
REGION AND A SURFACE LOW SLIDES THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. IMPACTFUL
WEATHER REMAINS A CONCERN, PARTICULARLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 94. NBM GUIDANCE HAS BEEN QUITE CONSISTENT WITH THIS,
CONTINUING TO SHOW A 50 TO 75 PERCENT CHANCE OF 4 INCHES OR MORE
OF SNOW FOR THIS AREA, AND A 40 TO 60 PERCENT CHANCE OF 6 INCHES
OR MORE. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH LIMITS THE NORTHERN EXTENT
OF THE SNOW, WITH NORTHERN PARTS OF OUR AREA POSSIBLY SEEING
LITTLE TO NO SNOWFALL. SNOW DEPARTS ON SUNDAY, WITH QUITE COLD
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.
NOTABLE WARMING TREND IS THEN ON TAP GOING THROUGH THE WORK
WEEK, WITH SOME LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY WITH THE WARMER AIR PUSHING IN. ALTHOUGH NBM
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A SPREAD IN HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR A
FEW OF THE DAYS, THE TREND IS SHARPLY WARMER.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 547 PM CDT THU MAR 12 2026
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO EASTERN ND THIS EVENING
WILL BRING VERY STRONG WINDS TO CENTRAL AND EASTERN ND THROUGH
THE EVENING, WHILE WINDS DIMINISH IN THE WEST THIS EVENING AND
THEN OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN ND OVERNIGHT. MVFR TO IFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES, WITH SOME LIFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES WILL TRACK ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND INTO EASTERN
ND TONIGHT. AREAS OF MAINLY MVFR TO LOW VFR CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL ND TONIGHT, BUT CLEARING FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. WINDS DIMINISH TONIGHT AND THEN SHIFT
TO THE SOUTHEAST FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY FRIDAY.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR NDZ003>005-
011>013.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 1 AM CDT /MIDNIGHT MDT/ FRIDAY FOR
NDZ019>021-034-035-042-045-046.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 4 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR NDZ022-023-025-036-
037-047-048-050-051.
UPDATE...TWH
DISCUSSION...JJS
AVIATION...TWH
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