619
FXUS63 KBIS 130944
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
444 AM CDT FRI MAR 13 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- CHANCE (30-70 PERCENT) OF SNOW WEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL TODAY,
THEN A CHANCE OF SNOW SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL TONIGHT. AN
INCH OR TWO OF SNOW ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE SOUTHWEST THROUGH
TONIGHT.
- SNOW DEVELOPS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA SATURDAY INTO EARLY
SUNDAY, WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW AND THE GREATEST IMPACTS
POSSIBLE ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 94. GUSTY WINDS
DEVELOPING MAY CREATE BLOWING SNOW IMPACTS SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY.
- WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK, FOLLOWED BY A MODERATE TO STRONG WARMING TREND THROUGH
THE MIDDLE TO LATER PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 440 AM CDT FRI MAR 13 2026
CURRENTLY, STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW WITH A 150KT UPPER LEVEL JET
ALOFT. RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL DAKOTAS THIS MORNING, WITH
DIMINISHING WINDS ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION. EARLIER DROPPED THE
REMAINING HIGH WIND WARNING AND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WITH THE
IMPROVING CONDITIONS. A CLOUDY SKY ACROSS THE REGION, WITH BOTH
LOW AND MID LEVEL BKN-OVC CLOUDS OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL ND TO
START THE DAY.
EMBEDDED WAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED SUBTLE SURFACE LOW TRACK EAST-
SOUTHEAST ACROSS MONTANA AND THROUGH WESTERN ND INTO NORTHERN
SOUTH DAKOTA TODAY AND THIS EVENING. COUPLED WITH UPPER LEVEL
JET DYNAMICS WE EXPECT SNOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL AREAS OF THE STATE, FOCUSED OVER THE SOUTHWEST WHERE THE
BEST FORCING COMBO IS PROJECTED OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS. UP TO
AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW IS CURRENTLY FORECAST OVER SOUTHWEST ND
THROUGH TONIGHT, WITH LESSER AMOUNTS AS YOU HEAD NORTH AND EAST.
MORE WIDESPREAD SNOW CHANCES THEN QUICKLY DEVELOP SATURDAY/SAT
NIGHT, WHEN AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS/AMPLIFIES INTO THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES IN RESPONSE TO FAVORABLE RIGHT
ENTRANCE/LEFT EXIT REGION JET DYNAMICS. AN ASSOCIATED LEE SIDE
SFC LOW DEVELOPS OVER EASTERN WYOMING/COLORADO SAT AM, THEN
DEVELOPS/DEEPENS EAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY SAT NIGHT. A
BROAD AREA OF STRONG DIVQ FORCING AND LOW/MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENSIS SETS UP ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE SFC LOW TRACK
DURING THE DAY SAT INTO SAT EVENING, WITH MODELS SHOWING A
NOTABLE NORTHWARD SHIFT TO BRINGING DECENT ACCUMULATING
SNOWFALL TO SOUTHERN AREAS OF THE STATE. GEFS AND EC ENSEMBLES
DEF SHIFTING NORTH, WITH PERCENT CHANCE OF AT LEAST 3" OF SNOW
NOW CLOSE TO 90% ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-94, AND PROBABILITIES FOR
AT LEAST 6" ALSO INCREASING, WITH NBM NOW AT 50-80% CHANCE OVER
MY SOUTHWEST AND FAR SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN JAMES VALLEY
(40-60% CHANCE FOR AT LEAST 8" FOR THIS SAME AREA). GIVEN THE
ABOVE MENTIONED CO-FORCING, SOME BANDED SNOW IS LIKELY, WHICH
MAY BE WHAT IS DRIVING SOME OF THE HIGHER ADVERTISED AMOUNTS.
ALSO EXPECT TO SEE WINDS INCREASING AS THE SFC LOW ORGANIZES
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS, INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR BLOWING
SNOW IMPACTS. WITH THE ABOVE INFO AND AFTER COLLABORATION WITH
SURROUNDING OFFICES AND WPC, WE OPTED TO ISSUE A WINTER STORM
WATCH FOR ALL OF SOUTHWEST ND, AND ACROSS FAR SOUTH CENTRAL AND
THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY SOUTH OF I-94 SAT MORNING
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. FUTURE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE WATCH ARE
POSSIBLE, AND/OR UPGRADES IN THE NEAR FUTURE.
THEREAFTER, A LARGE AND BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
IS FAVORED BY ENSEMBLES TO DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN CONUS NEXT
WEEK, GRADUALLY MOVING EAST THROUGH THE WEEK. RAIN AND SNOW
CHANCES REMAIN FORECAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY DURING THE
TRANSITION FROM THE COLDER AIRMASS THIS WEEKEND TO THE WARMER
AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER RIDGE, FOLLOWED BY MAINLY DRY
WEATHER FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE
NICELY AFTER MONDAY, WITH A STRONG WARMING TREND FAVORED TUE-THU
(WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S NEXT WEEK WED AND THU).
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 132 AM CDT FRI MAR 13 2026
MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY, WITH SOME LIFR CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITY NORTH CENTRAL AND INTO EASTERN ND TONIGHT. AREAS
OF MAINLY MVFR TO LOW VFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED OVER WESTERN
AND CENTRAL ND TONIGHT, BUT IMPROVING TOWARDS 12Z WITH A MID
LEVEL CLOUD DECK IN PLACE. WINDS DIMINISH OVER CENTRAL AND
EASTERN ND THIS MORNING, SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST FROM WEST TO
EAST DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. NEXT ROUND OF WINTER WEATHER ENTERS
SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING, THEN SLOWLY EXPANDS EAST
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL ND DURING THE DAY. MVFR TO POSSIBLY IFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY IN FALLING SNOW FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST
AND POSSIBLY SOUTH CENTRAL TERMINALS.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON FOR NDZ031>034-040>048-050-051.
DISCUSSION...NH
AVIATION...NH
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