310
FXUS63 KBIS 131952
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
252 PM CDT FRI MAR 13 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MEDIUM SNOW CHANCES CONTINUE THIS EVENING SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH
CENTRAL BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES.
- SNOW DEVELOPS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA SATURDAY, ESPECIALLY
SOUTH. HEAVIEST SNOW ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 94. WINTER
STORM WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED OVER MUCH OF
SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA.
- WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK, FOLLOWED BY A MODERATE TO STRONG WARMING TREND THROUGH
THE MIDDLE TO LATER PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 204 PM CDT FRI MAR 13 2026
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING THROUGH
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN DAKOTAS ON THE BACK SIDE OF YESTERDAY'S
SYSTEM, WHILE LOW REMAINS OVER NORTHERN/EASTERN WYOMING. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS NOTES FAST WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW WITH A COUPLE OF
MODEST SHORT WAVES PUSHING OVER THE REGION. OVER OUR AREA, AN
AREA OF SNOW TO THE NORTH/EAST OF THE THE SURFACE LOW AFFILIATED
WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVES AND A MODEST SURFACE TROUGH
CONTINUES TO PASS THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN MONTANA AND WESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA, PUSHING INTO SOUTHWEST PARTS OF NORTH DAKOTA. WITH
THAT SAID, SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW HAS EXTENDED INTO PARTS OF
NORTHWEST/SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
THIS SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON BEFORE TAPERING
OFF TONIGHT, BUT THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE FOLLOWING IN RIGHT
BEHIND, SO SNOW CHANCES WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT OVER
PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST/SOUTH CENTRAL.
THE NEXT SYSTEM STARTS TO SPREAD SNOW OVER OUR AREA EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING AS A PACIFIC TROUGH PUSHES OVER THE ROCKIES AND
RAPIDLY DEEPENS, AS A LEE SLIDE SURFACE LOW DEEPENS OVER WYOMING
AND EJECTS EASTERLY OUT INTO THE PLAINS. SNOW WILL SPREAD FROM
MONTANA INTO THE DAKOTAS, WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW FOR US EXPECTED
ALONG THE SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER. MODELS HAVE BEEN RUNNING RATHER
CONSISTENT WITH KEEPING THE GREATEST PROBABILITIES FOR HEAVY
SNOW GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 94, THOUGH LATEST
NBM RUNS HAVE BUMPED HIGHER PROBABILITIES NORTH A BIT. GIVEN
THE HIGHER PROBABILITY, HAVE DECIDED TO GO WITH A WINTER STORM
WARNING FOR THE FAR SOUTH, WITH ADVISORIES ALONG THE NORTHERN
EDGE. CONCERNS WITH THIS SYSTEM GO INTO SUNDAY AS THOUGH THE
SNOW WILL BE TAPERING OFF, GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE, ESPECIALLY
OVER EASTERN LOCATIONS. THEREFORE BLOWING SNOW WILL REMAIN A
CONCERN.
CHILLY TEMPERATURES REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE
WARMER AIR STARTS TO PUSH INTO THE AREA IN EARNEST. THEREFORE,
NOTABLE WARMING TREND IS THEN ON TAP GOING THROUGH THE WORK
WEEK WITH NBM SPREADS SHOWING WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
FOR THE MIDDLE AND END OF THE WORK WEEK. AS FOR PRECIPITATION,
CHANCES COME MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH THE WARM AIR PUSHING
IN. GIVEN THE WARMER AIR COMING IN ALOFT, A CHANGE IN
PRECIPITATION TYPE IS POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY STARTING AS SNOW,
TRANSITIONING TO A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN, THEN TRANSITIONING
TO RAIN GIVEN THE SURFACE TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1251 PM CDT FRI MAR 13 2026
AREAS OF IFR WITH OCCASIONAL LIFR VISIBILITY IN SNOW WILL
REMAIN THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON OVER SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA,
INCLUDING THE KDIK TERMINAL. MVFR WITH OCCASIONAL IFR CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITY WILL REMAIN OVER PARTS OF NORTHWEST INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON, WITH IMPROVEMENT EARLY THIS
EVENING.
LATER TONIGHT, ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA
(MAINLY SOUTHERN PARTS OF NORTH DAKOTA) AND REMAIN INTO
SATURDAY. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE LATE TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST, LOWERING TO
IFR TO OCCASIONAL LIFR CONDITIONS, WITH THE WORST CONDITIONS
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 94. OVER NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA, MVFR TO VFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM CDT /NOON MDT/ SATURDAY TO 7
AM CDT /6 AM MDT/ SUNDAY FOR NDZ017-018.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM CDT /NOON MDT/ SATURDAY TO 1
PM CDT /NOON MDT/ SUNDAY FOR NDZ019-020-035.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO 6 AM MDT SUNDAY FOR
NDZ031>033-040-041-043-044.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 PM CDT /NOON MDT/ SATURDAY TO 1 PM
CDT /NOON MDT/ SUNDAY FOR NDZ034-042-045-046.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM SATURDAY TO 7 PM CDT SUNDAY
FOR NDZ036-037.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 PM SATURDAY TO 7 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR
NDZ047-048-050-051.
DISCUSSION...JJS
AVIATION...JJS
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