390
FXUS63 KBIS 140601
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
101 AM CDT SAT MAR 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LOW TO MEDIUM SNOW CHANCES CONTINUE TONIGHT IN SOUTHWEST AND
SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES.
- SNOW DEVELOPS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA SATURDAY, ESPECIALLY
SOUTH. HEAVIEST SNOW ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 94. WINTER
STORM WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED OVER MUCH OF
SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA.
- WELL BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK, FOLLOWED BY A MODERATE TO STRONG WARMING TREND THROUGH
THE MIDDLE TO LATER PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 101 AM CDT SAT MAR 14 2026
LIGHT SNOW IS PRESENT OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND LOOKS
TO GRADUALLY SLIDE EAST OR SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NIGHT.
OTHERWISE, SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE INCOMING WINTER STORM IS
STARTING TO APPEAR IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST ON THE BOWMAN
RADAR. THESE ECHOES SHOULD CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY EXPAND ACROSS
SOUTHERN ND THROUGH THE NIGHT TONIGHT, AND ESPECIALLY IN THE
SOUTHWEST.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1048 PM CDT FRI MAR 13 2026
THE MOST NOTEWORTHY FORECAST CHANGE FOR THIS UPDATE WAS TO MOVE
UP THE START TIME OF ALL WINTER STORM WARNING AND WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY SEGMENTS BY 3 TO 6 HOURS. THIS DECISION WAS
DRIVEN BY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN AN EARLIER START TIME OF PERSISTENT
SNOWFALL AND TRAVEL IMPACTS OVER A MAJORITY OF EACH GIVEN
SEGMENT. THE WARNING NOW BEGINS IN SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA AT 3
AM MDT, SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AT 7 AM CDT, AND THE SOUTHERN
JAMES RIVER VALLEY AT 10 AM CDT. ALL ADVISORY SEGMENTS ALSO NOW
BEGIN AT 10 AM CDT.
A COMPACT AREA OF SNOW SHOWERS WAS APPROACHING THE
BISMARCK/MANDAN AREA AT 1030 PM CDT, AND WAS THE ONLY NOTABLE
SNOW DETECTED BY RADAR WITHIN THE FORECAST AREA. A QUICK DUSTING
OF SNOW COULD ACCUMULATE ACROSS EASTERN MORTON AND SOUTHERN
BURLEIGH COUNTIES THROUGH MIDNIGHT CDT. IT APPEARS THESE SNOW
SHOWERS COULD BE DRIVEN BY ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG THE 280 K
SURFACE, BETWEEN 850 AND 700 MB. RAP PROGNOSTICS MAINTAIN THIS
AREA OF LIFT/SATURATION AND MIGRATE IT EASTWARD THROUGH THE
NIGHT AS A PRECURSOR TO THE MAIN SNOW EVENT.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 724 PM CDT FRI MAR 13 2026
AN AREA OF LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION HAS BEEN PRODUCING
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED FLURRIES ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA SINCE
MID AFTERNOON. THIS MAY CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS AND
SLOWLY DRIFT EASTWARD UNTIL THE WAA IS FORECAST TO WANE
OVERNIGHT. MEANWHILE, SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MEANDER
ACROSS SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF MID
LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT. MORE RECENTLY, THERE
WAS AN UPTICK IN INTENSITY OF A COUPLE OF TINY SNOW SHOWERS FROM
AROUND GLEN ULLIN TO LAKE TSCHIDA, WHICH MAY HAVE BRIEFLY FOUND
ACCESS TO SOME SLANTWISE INSTABILITY. POCKETS OF MOSTLY LIGHT
SNOW MAY CONTINUE IN THE SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING UNTIL THE
ARRIVAL OF THE MORE STEADY AND HEAVIER SNOWFALL LATE TONIGHT.
RECENT RAPID-REFRESH GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT ON THE LOCATION
OF HIGHEST SNOW AMOUNTS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE,
BUT HAS SHOWN A SLIGHTLY SLOWER NORTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THE
START TIME OF SNOW SATURDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THIS FITS
CONCEPTUAL EXPECTATIONS THAT THE COLUMN MAY BE SLOWER TO
SATURATE GIVEN THE REINFORCEMENT OF DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR BY
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 204 PM CDT FRI MAR 13 2026
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING THROUGH
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN DAKOTAS ON THE BACK SIDE OF YESTERDAY'S
SYSTEM, WHILE LOW REMAINS OVER NORTHERN/EASTERN WYOMING. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS NOTES FAST WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW WITH A COUPLE OF
MODEST SHORT WAVES PUSHING OVER THE REGION. OVER OUR AREA, AN
AREA OF SNOW TO THE NORTH/EAST OF THE THE SURFACE LOW AFFILIATED
WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVES AND A MODEST SURFACE TROUGH
CONTINUES TO PASS THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN MONTANA AND WESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA, PUSHING INTO SOUTHWEST PARTS OF NORTH DAKOTA. WITH
THAT SAID, SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW HAS EXTENDED INTO PARTS OF
NORTHWEST/SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
THIS SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON BEFORE TAPERING
OFF TONIGHT, BUT THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE FOLLOWING IN RIGHT
BEHIND, SO SNOW CHANCES WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT OVER
PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST/SOUTH CENTRAL.
THE NEXT SYSTEM STARTS TO SPREAD SNOW OVER OUR AREA EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING AS A PACIFIC TROUGH PUSHES OVER THE ROCKIES AND
RAPIDLY DEEPENS, AS A LEE SLIDE SURFACE LOW DEEPENS OVER WYOMING
AND EJECTS EASTERLY OUT INTO THE PLAINS. SNOW WILL SPREAD FROM
MONTANA INTO THE DAKOTAS, WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW FOR US EXPECTED
ALONG THE SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER. MODELS HAVE BEEN RUNNING RATHER
CONSISTENT WITH KEEPING THE GREATEST PROBABILITIES FOR HEAVY
SNOW GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 94, THOUGH LATEST
NBM RUNS HAVE BUMPED HIGHER PROBABILITIES NORTH A BIT. GIVEN
THE HIGHER PROBABILITY, HAVE DECIDED TO GO WITH A WINTER STORM
WARNING FOR THE FAR SOUTH, WITH ADVISORIES ALONG THE NORTHERN
EDGE. CONCERNS WITH THIS SYSTEM GO INTO SUNDAY AS THOUGH THE
SNOW WILL BE TAPERING OFF, GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE, ESPECIALLY
OVER EASTERN LOCATIONS. THEREFORE BLOWING SNOW WILL REMAIN A
CONCERN.
CHILLY TEMPERATURES REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE
WARMER AIR STARTS TO PUSH INTO THE AREA IN EARNEST. THEREFORE,
NOTABLE WARMING TREND IS THEN ON TAP GOING THROUGH THE WORK
WEEK WITH NBM SPREADS SHOWING WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
FOR THE MIDDLE AND END OF THE WORK WEEK. AS FOR PRECIPITATION,
CHANCES COME MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH THE WARM AIR PUSHING
IN. GIVEN THE WARMER AIR COMING IN ALOFT, A CHANGE IN
PRECIPITATION TYPE IS POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY STARTING AS SNOW,
TRANSITIONING TO A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN, THEN TRANSITIONING
TO RAIN GIVEN THE SURFACE TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 101 AM CDT SAT MAR 14 2026
SNOW FROM AN INCOMING WINTER STORM WILL GRADUALLY EXPAND
TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA, ESPECIALLY THE
SOUTHWEST, BEFORE FURTHER WORKING NORTHWARD ACROSS MOST OF THE
STATE SATURDAY. THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS EXPECTED ALONG AND SOUTH OF
I94. INITIALLY EASTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE STATE SATURDAY, BECOMING NORTHERLY AND WINDY ACROSS
ALL BUT FAR NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA BY SATURDAY EVENING. THIS WILL
PRODUCE WIDESPREAD BLOWING SNOW, ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH
CENTRAL, INCLUDING THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY, WHERE NEAR BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ THIS MORNING
TO 7 AM CDT /6 AM MDT/ SUNDAY FOR NDZ017-018.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ THIS MORNING
TO 1 PM CDT /NOON MDT/ SUNDAY FOR NDZ019-020-035.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 AM SATURDAY TO 6 AM MDT SUNDAY FOR
NDZ031>033-040-041-043-044.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM CDT /6 AM MDT/ THIS MORNING TO
1 PM CDT /NOON MDT/ SUNDAY FOR NDZ034-042-045-046.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT
SUNDAY FOR NDZ036-037.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT
SUNDAY FOR NDZ047-048-050-051.
UPDATE...TELKEN
DISCUSSION...JJS
AVIATION...TELKEN
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