825
FXUS63 KBIS 140953
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
453 AM CDT SAT MAR 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SNOW WILL EXPAND ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE TODAY WITH THE
HEAVIEST SNOW EXPECTED ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 94.
WINTER STORM WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT OVER
SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA.
- WELL BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THROUGH MONDAY, FOLLOWED BY A
STRONG WARMING TREND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK.
- MIXED PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 453 AM CDT SAT MAR 14 2026
A POTENT WINTER STORM WILL IMPACT THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY
THROUGH SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE, CURRENTLY ANALYZED OVER WYOMING
INTO NORTHEASTERN COLORADO, TRACKS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
THE HEAVIEST SNOW IN NORTH DAKOTA LIKELY REMAINS ALONG AND
SOUTH OF I94. OVERALL, INTEND ON LEAVING HEADLINES AS-IS THIS
MORNING, WHICH INCLUDES A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR ALL COUNTIES
ALONG AND SOUTH OF I94 IF WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER, AND FOR
ALL COUNTIES SOUTH OF I94 IF EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER. A TIER
OF WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY COUNTIES REMAINS ON THE NORTH SIDE OF
THE WINTER STORM WARNING.
CURRENTLY, LIGHT SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE INCOMING WINTER STORM
IS MAINLY IN FAR SOUTHWESTERN ND. THIS SNOW IS EXPECTED TO
EXPAND NORTH AND EAST ACROSS MOST OF THE STATE TODAY, THROUGH
THIS EVENING, BEFORE TAPERING OFF FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
LATE TONIGHT. SNOW MAY LINGER THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING IN THE
SOUTHEAST, INCLUDING THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. OVERALL, 6 TO 9
INCHES ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNED AREA AND 3 TO 6 INCHES IN THE
ADVISORY. THAT SAID, LATEST CAMS DO INDICATE THERE MAY BE A BIT
OF A NORTHWARD SHIFT OF THE HEAVIEST SNOW. IF THIS TURNS OUT TO
BE THE CASE WHEN THINGS REALLY BEGIN TO RAMP UP, IT'S POSSIBLE
HEADLINES MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED A TIER FURTHER NORTH ACROSS
PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
ONE THING TO NOTE IS THAT THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE
HIGHEST SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
HOWEVER, IT IS ALSO THE MIDDLE OF MARCH AND THE SUN IS BECOMING
INCREASINGLY POWERFUL. DESPITE OVERCAST SKIES, WITH INCREASING
SOLAR INSOLATION THIS TIME OF YEAR AND NEAR-FREEZING HIGH
TEMPERATURES, LIGHT SNOW MIGHT HAVE A HARDER TIME ACCUMULATING
ON MANMADE SURFACES (ESPECIALLY TREATED ONES) DURING THE LATE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS FOR SOME AREAS. ONCE SNOWFALL
RATES INCREASE TO A MORE MODERATE OR HEAVY LEVEL THIS EFFECT
WILL BE OVERCOME. NEVERTHELESS, THIS COULD RESULT IN NOTICEABLY
HIGHER ACCUMULATIONS ON GRASSY SURFACES THAN MANMADE ONES FOR
PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA, ESPECIALLY THOSE WHERE SNOW DOESN'T
BEGIN UNTIL LATER MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. BY LATE AFTERNOON,
AS THE SUN ANGLE BEGINS TO DECREASE, THIS WILL NO LONGER BE THE
CASE AND ALL LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS WILL BEGIN TO FULLY ADD UP.
AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS, EASTERLY WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON. BY THIS EVENING,
WINDS WILL TAKE ON A NORTHERLY COMPONENT AND DECREASE IN THE
NORTHWEST WHILE BECOMING QUITE GUSTY IN PARTS OF THE SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST. OVERALL, THESE WINDS WILL PRODUCE
WIDESPREAD BLOWING SNOW, WITH NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
WHERE THE STRONGEST WINDS DEVELOP. WINDS WILL THEN CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST, WHILE ANY LINGERING SNOW
ENDS DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.
TRAILING HIGH PRESSURE RESULTING IN CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS WILL RESULT IN LOWS DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS BELOW ZERO FOR MOST OF THE STATE, WITH THE TEENS BELOW
ZERO POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS AND IN THE
NORTHEAST. THAT SAID, WITH A FRESH SNOWPACK, IT WOULDN'T BE
ENTIRELY SURPRISING IF TEMPERATURES DON'T CLOCK IN EVEN COLDER
THAN PRESENTLY FORECAST WHEN ALL IS SAID AND DONE. BELOW
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED TO PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
BEFORE AN INCOMING RIDGE AND WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS RESULT IN
RAPIDLY WARMING CONDITIONS. MOST NEW SNOW IS UNLIKELY TO SURVIVE
ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE BEYOND TUESDAY AND THE
REST OF THE STATE (EXCEPT THE COLDER NORTHEAST) BEYOND WEDNESDAY
AND CERTAINLY NOT THURSDAY.
IN REGARD TO ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION, ANOTHER ROUND IS LIKELY
TO PASS THROUGH TUESDAY. THOUGH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS, THE
CURRENT NBM FORECAST IS FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION MOVING ACROSS
THE STATE FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY AND LINGERING INTO
THE EVENING. OR RATHER, SNOW ON THE FRONT END AND MIXED
PRECIPITATION ON THE BACK END. AFTER WHICH, THE NBM FORECAST IS
CURRENTLY DRY TO FINISH OUT THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK, THOUGH
HINTS OF WEAK EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES AS FLOW BECOMES NORTHWESTERLY
ALOFT ARE PRESENT VIA LOW (LESS THAN 15 PERCENT) NBM POPS.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 101 AM CDT SAT MAR 14 2026
SNOW FROM AN INCOMING WINTER STORM WILL GRADUALLY EXPAND
TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA, ESPECIALLY THE
SOUTHWEST, BEFORE FURTHER WORKING NORTHWARD ACROSS MOST OF THE
STATE SATURDAY. THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS EXPECTED ALONG AND SOUTH OF
I94. INITIALLY EASTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE STATE SATURDAY, BECOMING NORTHERLY AND WINDY ACROSS
ALL BUT FAR NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA BY SATURDAY EVENING. THIS WILL
PRODUCE WIDESPREAD BLOWING SNOW, ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH
CENTRAL, INCLUDING THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY, WHERE NEAR BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ THIS MORNING
TO 7 AM CDT /6 AM MDT/ SUNDAY FOR NDZ017-018.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ THIS MORNING
TO 1 PM CDT /NOON MDT/ SUNDAY FOR NDZ019-020-035.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM MDT SUNDAY FOR NDZ031>033-040-
041-043-044.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM CDT /6 AM MDT/ THIS MORNING TO
1 PM CDT /NOON MDT/ SUNDAY FOR NDZ034-042-045-046.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT
SUNDAY FOR NDZ036-037.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT
SUNDAY FOR NDZ047-048-050-051.
DISCUSSION...TELKEN
AVIATION...TELKEN
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