085
FXUS63 KBIS 141953
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
253 PM CDT SAT MAR 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SNOW WILL EXPAND ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE TODAY WITH THE
HEAVIEST SNOW EXPECTED ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 94.
WINTER STORM WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT OVER
SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA.
- WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH MONDAY, FOLLOWED BY A
STRONG WARMING TREND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK.
- MIXED PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT SAT MAR 14 2026
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO
BRING SNOW BANDS ALONG THE NORTH AND SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER.
MAJORITY OF THE SNOW HAS REMAINED SOUTH OF I-94. ANOTHER SNOW
BAND IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THE HEAVIEST SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIKELY IN THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY.
THE 12Z HREF HAS LOWERED SNOW AMOUNTS IN THE SOUTHWEST
INCLUDING THE PROBABILITY OF 6 INCHES OF SNOW. HOWEVER THE
PROBABILITY OF 6 INCHES OF SNOW REMAINS HIGH IN THE SOUTHEASTERN
HALF OF THE STATE. THERE IS A COLDER ARCTIC DRY AIRMASS KEEPING
MUCH OF PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE
LEADING TO SHARP GRADIENT OF LITTLE TO NO SNOW TO DECENT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS. WINDY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO CONTINUE
ACROSS THE STATE LEADING TO BLOWING SNOW, WHILE THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY IS FORECAST TO SEE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR BLOWING SNOW.
BLOWING SNOW COULD LEAD TO NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS FOR OPEN
AREAS. SNOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE OUT OF THE REGION EARLY TOMORROW
MORNING WITH BLOWING SNOW TAPERING OFF WEST TO EAST BY TOMORROW
AFTERNOON.
THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE STATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL
LEAD TO LOW TEMPERATURES 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW ZERO SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE 10
TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THE REST OF THIS WEEKEND. NO
PRECIPITATION IS ANTICIPATED UNTIL TUESDAY.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM THE WESTERN CONUS
INTO CENTRAL CONUS NEXT WEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM IF
FORECAST TO ROUND THE TOP OF THE RIDGE NEXT TUESDAY BRINGING
FORTH PRECIPITATION. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM
AS IT DOES HAVE FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY INTO
THE RED RIVER VALLEY WITH A WINTRY MIX POSSIBLE. HOWEVER, THE
TIMING OF THE MAIN PRECIPITATION IS DURING THE DAY WITH SOLAR
INSOLATION COULD KEEP ROAD SURFACE TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING
LIMITING IMPACTS. IF THIS SYSTEM COMES OVERNIGHT IT COULD CAUSE
ISSUES FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE.
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO WARM UP ACROSS THE STATE STARTING
WEST TO EAST TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES COULD REACH THE UPPER 50S
WEST AND AROUND FREEZING IN THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST TO WARM INTO THE 60S ACROSS THE STATE BY THE END
OF THE WEEK WITH THE NBM 75TH PERCENTILE BEING ABOVE 70 FOR
KBIS. THIS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE LOOKS TO STALL ACROSS THE WESTERN
AND CENTRAL US INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK LEADING TO WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1246 PM CDT SAT MAR 14 2026
A SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BRING SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL HALF OF THE STATE. THIS HAS BROUGHT MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS WHERE THERE IS FALLING SNOW. VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS
ARE BEING OBSERVED IN AREAS WITH FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW. THE
SOUTHERN TERMINALS WILL SEE MAJORITY OF THE SNOW THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TOMORROW MORNING AS SNOW
LIFTS OUT OF THE AREA. HOWEVER THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING
BLOWING SNOW. LINGERING LOW STRATUS OUT EAST WILL KEEP MVFR
CONDITIONS FOR SOME TERMINALS.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT /6 AM MDT/ SUNDAY FOR
NDZ017-018.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT /NOON MDT/ SUNDAY FOR
NDZ019-020-035.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM MDT SUNDAY FOR NDZ031>033-040-
041-043-044.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM CDT /NOON MDT/ SUNDAY FOR
NDZ034-042-045-046.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR NDZ036-037.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR NDZ047-048-050-
051.
DISCUSSION...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JOHNSON
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