552
FXUS63 KBIS 150148
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
848 PM CDT SAT MAR 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE STATE
THIS EVENING AND TAPER OFF FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST LATE
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
- STRONG WINDS WILL CREATE AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON, WITH NEAR-BLIZZARD CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THE
SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY.
- WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH MONDAY, FOLLOWED BY A
STRONG WARMING TREND TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
- LOW (WEST) TO HIGH (EAST) CHANCES FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION ON
TUESDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 845 PM CDT SAT MAR 14 2026
OVER THE LAST 1 TO 2 HOURS, AN INCREASE IN INTENSITY OF
SNOWFALL HAS BEEN OBSERVED OVER PARTS OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITH STRONG 700 MB CYCLONIC VORTICITY
UNDERNEATH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 300 MB JET. THE 700 MB
VORT MAX IS FORECAST TO SAG INTO SOUTH DAKOTA, AND UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE SHOULD WEAKEN TO SOME EXTENT AS THE 300 MB JET
SLIDES EASTWARD. THEREFORE, EXPECT A WEAKENING TREND IN THE
INTENSITY OF SNOWFALL BY AROUND 10 PM CDT, WITH LIGHTER SNOW
CONTINUING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE TAPERING OFF FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
ANOTHER TREND THAT HAS BEEN OBSERVED THROUGHOUT THE DAY IS
WINDS NOT BEING AS CONSISTENTLY STRONG AS HAD BEEN FORECAST. WE
DID DECREASE THE WIND SPEED AND GUST FORECAST THROUGH THIS
EVENING, BUT STILL ANTICIPATE STRENGTHENING LATER TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY AS THE MID-LATITUDE CYCLONE DEEPENS OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS TO UPPER MIDWEST.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 724 PM CDT SAT MAR 14 2026
THE NEAR-TERM FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE. THE ONLY NOTABLE
ADJUSTMENT FOR THIS UPDATE WAS TO DECREASE POPS IN THE NORTH AS
SNOW IS STRUGGLING TO FALL NORTH OF HIGHWAY 2, EXCEPT IN
WILLIAMS AND DIVIDE COUNTIES. THERE COULD STILL BE A FEW HOURS
OF LIGHT SNOW ALONG THE HIGHWAY 2 CORRIDOR THIS EVENING BEFORE
THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SNOW BEGINS TO QUICKLY PUSH SOUTH
THROUGH THE NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT SAT MAR 14 2026
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO
BRING SNOW BANDS ALONG THE NORTH AND SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER.
MAJORITY OF THE SNOW HAS REMAINED SOUTH OF I-94. ANOTHER SNOW
BAND IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THE HEAVIEST SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIKELY IN THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY.
THE 12Z HREF HAS LOWERED SNOW AMOUNTS IN THE SOUTHWEST
INCLUDING THE PROBABILITY OF 6 INCHES OF SNOW. HOWEVER THE
PROBABILITY OF 6 INCHES OF SNOW REMAINS HIGH IN THE SOUTHEASTERN
HALF OF THE STATE. THERE IS A COLDER ARCTIC DRY AIRMASS KEEPING
MUCH OF PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE
LEADING TO SHARP GRADIENT OF LITTLE TO NO SNOW TO DECENT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS. WINDY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO CONTINUE
ACROSS THE STATE LEADING TO BLOWING SNOW, WHILE THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY IS FORECAST TO SEE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR BLOWING SNOW.
BLOWING SNOW COULD LEAD TO NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS FOR OPEN
AREAS. SNOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE OUT OF THE REGION EARLY TOMORROW
MORNING WITH BLOWING SNOW TAPERING OFF WEST TO EAST BY TOMORROW
AFTERNOON.
THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE STATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL
LEAD TO LOW TEMPERATURES 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW ZERO SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE 10
TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THE REST OF THIS WEEKEND. NO
PRECIPITATION IS ANTICIPATED UNTIL TUESDAY.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM THE WESTERN CONUS
INTO CENTRAL CONUS NEXT WEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM IF
FORECAST TO ROUND THE TOP OF THE RIDGE NEXT TUESDAY BRINGING
FORTH PRECIPITATION. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM
AS IT DOES HAVE FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY INTO
THE RED RIVER VALLEY WITH A WINTRY MIX POSSIBLE. HOWEVER, THE
TIMING OF THE MAIN PRECIPITATION IS DURING THE DAY WITH SOLAR
INSOLATION COULD KEEP ROAD SURFACE TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING
LIMITING IMPACTS. IF THIS SYSTEM COMES OVERNIGHT IT COULD CAUSE
ISSUES FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE.
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO WARM UP ACROSS THE STATE STARTING
WEST TO EAST TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES COULD REACH THE UPPER 50S
WEST AND AROUND FREEZING IN THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST TO WARM INTO THE 60S ACROSS THE STATE BY THE END
OF THE WEEK WITH THE NBM 75TH PERCENTILE BEING ABOVE 70 FOR
KBIS. THIS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE LOOKS TO STALL ACROSS THE WESTERN
AND CENTRAL US INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK LEADING TO WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 724 PM CDT SAT MAR 14 2026
SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE STATE
THIS EVENING, WITH PREVAILING IFR AND TEMPORARY LIFR VISIBILITY,
ALONG WITH MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS. THE SNOW SHOULD TAPER OFF OVER
NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA,
LIGHTER SNOW REMAINS IN THE FORECAST ONLY THROUGH THIS EVENING,
BUT MVFR CEILINGS COULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON,
BUT WITH TWO POSSIBLE EXCEPTIONS: 1) BLOWING SNOW COULD REDUCE
VISIBILITY AT KJMS AND SURROUNDING AREAS AND 2) THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE FOR A BAND OF MVFR CEILINGS PERSISTING OVER SOUTHWEST/
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY WINDS WILL
TURN FROM EASTERLY THIS EVENING TO NORTHERLY TONIGHT TO
NORTHWESTERLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED IN SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA, INCLUDING KJMS.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT /6 AM MDT/ SUNDAY FOR
NDZ017-018.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT /NOON MDT/ SUNDAY FOR
NDZ019-020-035.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM MDT SUNDAY FOR NDZ031>033-040-
041-043-044.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM CDT /NOON MDT/ SUNDAY FOR
NDZ034-042-045-046.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR NDZ036-037.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR NDZ047-048-050-
051.
UPDATE...HOLLAN
DISCUSSION...JOHNSON
AVIATION...HOLLAN
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