216
FXUS63 KBIS 151148
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
648 AM CDT SUN MAR 15 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SNOW, WITH ADDITIONAL LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS, WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA,
TAPERING OFF NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THIS MORNING.
- STRONG WINDS WILL CREATE AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON,
WITH NEAR-BLIZZARD CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHERN JAMES
RIVER VALLEY.
- LOW (WEST) TO HIGH (EAST) CHANCES FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
- WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH MONDAY, FOLLOWED BY A
STRONG WARMING TREND WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY
THE MIDDLE TO END OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 636 AM CDT SUN MAR 15 2026
A FEW CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR THIS MORNING. OPTED TO EXPIRE
AND/OR CONVERT HEADLINES SOUTHWEST, BASICALLY EXPIRING
ALTOGETHER SOME COUNTIES AND CONVERTING WARNED COUNTIES TO
ADVISORIES. KEPT THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND JAMES VALLEY AS IS. SNOW
IS SLOW TO END ACROSS THE SOUTH, SO INCREASED POPS FOR A FEW
MORE HOURS THIS MORNING AFTER SUNRISE. DAY SHIFT SHOULD BE ABLE
TO START EXPIRING MORE AREAS LATER THIS MORNING. SEE BELOW FOR
UPDATED AVIATION SECTION AND FOR FURTHER FORECAST REASONING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT SUN MAR 15 2026
CURRENTLY, MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVING EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, WITH THE TROUGH AXIS NOW
OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. STRONG
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS, OVER
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA/NORTHEASTERN KANSAS. HEAVIER SNOW HAS ENDED
OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA, WITH LIGHT TO POCKETS OF
OCCASIONAL MODERATE SNOW LINGERING SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL. GUSTY
NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS RESULTING IN AREAS TO WIDESPREAD BLOWING
SNOW, ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST AND FAR SOUTH CENTRAL THIS MORNING.
WILL MAINTAIN WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AND WINTER STORM WARNING
HEADLINES AS IS WITH THIS PRODUCT ISSUANCE. SOUTHWESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA COUNTIES EXPIRE AT 12Z, AND RIGHT NOW THIS LOOKS ON TRACK
GIVEN OBSERVATION AND CAM TRENDS.
ALL LINGERING SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE PARENT TROUGH SHOULD BE
OFF TO OUR SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST BY AROUND 15Z THIS MORNING,
THOUGH BLOWING SNOW IMPACTS CONTINUE. A TRAILING EMBEDDED WAVE
NOW OVER CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA WILL DEVELOP SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST TODAY, AND MAY BRING SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW TO
CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS OF THE STATE. I OPTED TO KEEP POPS ON
THE LOW SIDE THOUGH WITH AN AREA OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND
SUBSIDENCE BUILDING INTO THE REGION AT THE SAME TIME. COLDER AND
WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO UPPER TEENS, AND APPARENT
TEMPERATURES/WIND CHILLS MAINLY BELOW ZERO THROUGH THE DAY.
WINDS REMAIN ELEVATED SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY WITH A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE SFC HIGH, ENOUGH
SO WHERE BLOWING SNOW REMAINS A CONCERN.
WINDS TAPER OFF TONIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS
THE STATE. COLD NIGHT AHEAD WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
AND BELOW, AND WIND CHILLS ANYWHERE FROM AROUND ZERO (WHERE
WINDS ARE LIGHT NEAR THE SFC HIGH) TO 20 BELOW ZERO WHERE
PRESSURE RISES AND WINDS LINGER LONGER.
NEXT WEEK MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL SEE THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING
INTO THE EASTERN CONUS WITH A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS, RESULTING IN A NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT OVER THE DAKOTAS. OUR COLD AIRMASS IS DISPLACED EAST AS A
RESULT, WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING QUICKLY BOTH DAYS, WITH
HIGHS BY TUESDAY BACK IN THE 30S (EAST) AND 50S (WEST). RIDGE
RIDER S/WV WILL BRING A SWATH OF PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. STILL
EXPECTING MIXED PRECIPITATION WITH THIS WAVE GIVEN THE WARMING
TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND AT THE SFC, WITH INITIAL SNOW
TRANSITIONING TO A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN, RAIN, OR SLEET AND
EVENTUALLY ALL RAIN WEST TO EAST. THIS COULD BE A SNEAKY EVENT
DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH SNOW FALLS BEFORE TRANSITIONING, OR HOW
MUCH FREEZING RAIN OCCURS BEFORE SFC TEMPERATURES WARM.
THEREAFTER, THE LARGE AND BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FAVORED BY
ENSEMBLES TO DEVELOP SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS PATTERN
WILL FAVOR MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND A CONTINUED STRONG WARMING
TREND THROUGH THE MIDDLE TO END OF THE WEEK (HIGHS WELL INTO
THE 60S THU AND FRI, WITH 40S OVER THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS). THE
UPPER RIDGE IS THEN FAVORED TO DEAMPLIFY NEXT WEEKEND, TRENDING
NBM TEMPERATURES COOLER AND PERHAPS SOME BETTER PRECIPITATION
CHANCES RETURNING.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 636 AM CDT SUN MAR 15 2026
SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TO START THE 12Z PERIOD, WITH PREVAILING
MVFR/IFR AND TEMPORARY LIFR VISIBILITY AND MVFR TO OCCASIONAL
IFR CEILINGS. A MIX OF LOW VFR/MVFR CEILINGS ELSEWHERE.
CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE DAY, WITH MAINLY LOW
VFR CEILINGS ALL TERMINALS. DIURNAL MID LEVEL CLOUDS ALONG WITH
POSSIBLE LIGHT CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS 18-00Z THIS AFTERNOON.
BLOWING SNOW AT KJMS MAY ALSO MAINTAIN REDUCED VISIBILITY AT
TIMES. NORTHERLY WINDS TAPER OFF TONIGHT ALONG WITH VFR
CONDITIONS ALL TERMINALS.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT /NOON MDT/ THIS
AFTERNOON FOR NDZ019-020-035.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MDT TODAY FOR NDZ033-040-
041-043-044.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM CDT /NOON MDT/ THIS AFTERNOON
FOR NDZ034-042-045-046.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ036-
037.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ047-
048-050-051.
UPDATE...NH
DISCUSSION...NH
AVIATION...NH
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