014
FXUS63 KBIS 160651
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
151 AM CDT MON MAR 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- UNSEASONABLY COLD TONIGHT, WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS BELOW ZERO.
- WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE ON MONDAY, FOLLOWED
BY A STRONG WARMING TREND WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
BY THE MIDDLE TO END OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
- MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCES (50-80%) FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION LATE
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN IS
EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA LATE
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 142 AM CDT MON MAR 16 2026
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING WITH THIS PRODUCT
ISSUANCE.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1000 PM CDT SUN MAR 15 2026
CURRENT CONDITIONS AND TRENDS WERE BLENDED INTO THE FORECAST FOR
THIS UPDATE, RESULTING IN NO MAJOR CHANGES. STILL COULD SEE SOME
OCCASIONAL FLURRIES UNDER THE BROKEN AREA OF STRATUS TRACKING
THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA LATE THIS EVENING.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 700 PM CDT SUN MAR 15 2026
A FEW FLURRIES HAVE BEEN OBSERVED UNDERNEATH THE BROKEN STRATUS
THROUGHOUT WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON, BUT
HAVE MOSTLY REMAINED UNIMPACTFUL. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS IS IN
EASTERN BOTTINEAU COUNTY WHERE RECENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND
WEBCAMS HAVE SUGGESTED POCKETS OF MORE INTENSE FLURRIES/LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS. CHANCES FOR FLURRIES AND/OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA SHOULD DIMINISH THROUGH THE EVENING. THE
FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED TO REFLECT THESE THOUGHTS AND TRENDS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 214 PM CDT SUN MAR 15 2026
A SHORTWAVE IS QUICKLY MOVING ACROSS THE
STATE THIS AFTERNOON BRING THROUGH AN AREA OF LOW CLOUDS THAT
WILL QUICKLY MOVE OUT OF THE REGION AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN BEHIND. NO PRECIPITATION IS ANTICIPATED UNTIL TUESDAY.
A POST FRONTAL ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE STATE THROUGH MONDAY. THIS WILL LEAD
TO LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE ZERO TO 10
DEGREES BELOW ZERO. WIND CHILLS COULD DROP AS LOW AS 25 DEGREES
BELOW ZERO TONIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE 10 TO
15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL MONDAY.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM THE WESTERN CONUS
INTO CENTRAL CONUS EARLY NEXT WEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM IF
FORECAST TO ROUND THE TOP OF THE RIDGE NEXT TUESDAY BRINGING
FORTH PRECIPITATION ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM AS IT DOES HAVE
FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY INTO THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY WITH A WINTRY MIX POSSIBLE AS WELL. THE TIMING OF
THE MAIN PRECIPITATION IS HAS SHIFTED TO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. NOW THE SYSTEM TIMING WILL INFLUENCE HOW IMPACTFUL THIS
EVENT WILL BE TO THE REGION. IF THIS SYSTEM COMES THROUGH DURING
THE DAY THE SOLAR INSOLATION COULD KEEP ROAD SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE FREEZING LIMITING IMPACTS. IF THIS
SYSTEM COMES OVERNIGHT IT COULD CAUSE ISSUES FOR THE MORNING
COMMUTE. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RAPIDLY WARM UP TUESDAY
LIMITING THE DURATION OF THIS EVENT IF IT IS IMPACTFUL. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST BE ABOVE FREEZING IN THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY TO THE UPPER 50S OUT WEST.
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO WARM UP ACROSS THE STATE STARTING
WEST TO EAST TUESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST
TO WARM INTO THE 60S TO 70S ACROSS THE STATE BY THE END OF THE
WEEK. THE NBM 75TH PERCENTILE BEING ABOVE 70 AND NEAR 80 FOR
KBIS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AND THE NBM 25TH PERCENTILE IS
FORECAST TO BE AROUND 60. THIS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE LOOKS TO STALL
ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL US INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK LEADING
TO WARM ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
REGION.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 142 AM CDT MON MAR 16 2026
SCATTERED TO BROKEN CEILINGS AROUND 2,500 TO 4,000 FT FROM
NORTHWEST THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA EARLY THIS MORNING,
AND AT TIMES MAY IMPACT KXWA AND KBIS. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS
THIS MORNING WILL PREVAIL. VFR CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE 06Z PERIOD, WITH INCREASING MID TO UPPER
LEVEL CLOUDS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT, THEN SOUTHERLY AROUND 10 KTS MONDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS
SLOWLY TRANSITION TO SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERLY FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGH THE 06Z TAF PERIOD.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...NH
DISCUSSION...JOHNSON
AVIATION...NH
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